The Threat of Quantum Computing to Privacy and Security

by fooCount1

As there seems to be a good deal of worry (dare I say even "paranoia") regarding the threat that quantum computing poses to modern life, let me give a brief summary for your consideration.

It has been known since the 1960s that the processing speed of computers has been increasing, and this observation started being codified as Moore's Law.

Cryptography has been the discipline that brings the possibility of privacy and digital security to our online operations.

The effectiveness of security provided by many cryptographic systems has usually been considered to be relatively stable, despite the increasing computing power made available to the public.  This stability could be considered to be changing, however, due to the rapid demonstrated and projected huge increases in computing power from the application of advances in quantum computing.  How could this affect the security of our personal communications?

Quantum computing is projected to be able to break multiple asymmetric cryptographic schemes within the next four to ten years.  This is a huge threat to security of present systems, although you may think it is not a big deal, as long as we update our cryptographic schemes to more secure methods in the short term.  This will not be true, unfortunately, if your sensitive encrypted data has been harvested already, awaiting input to quantum cryptographic codebreaking in the future!  Various programs are thought to be in use now for a "harvest now, decrypt later" approach to mine your secrets.

Asymmetric algorithms in use today are thought to be at risk, while symmetric algorithms that use sufficiently lengthy keys should be secure for longer time frames.  This means that if you are depending on an encryption scheme to secure any of your data (voice, email, files, etc.), it is advisable to assess the underlying algorithm used, discern the specific details of its use, and decide how vulnerable you are currently.

Many believe there will be a slowdown in top computer speed due to limitations in its potential advancement based solely on hardware.  Some even think this slowdown has already started, due to physical limitations of CPU architecture.  However, some believe that the exponential increase in computing power will be accelerated with the advent of more advanced quantum computing platforms.  This does seem likely due to recent advances.

We all must evaluate the effectiveness of the security measures in use to protect our confidential data.  Those who say "I have nothing to hide" are indeed naïve, as nobody wants their bank account (or a myriad of other personal accounts) compromised.  Quantum computing may be the "game changer" that boosts computing power above that required to allow compromise of your personal data, and this could happen in the next few years.

The good news is that if we start planning now, and implementing higher security measures as soon as possible, we may be successful in securing our communications and data as we would like.  The curve showing computing power may be on the verge of changing from exponential (nearly doubling every two years) to an even greater rate very soon, so we should all consider what to do next in order to secure our data and our privacy!

What will happen when bad actors combine advances in quantum computing with advances in artificial intelligence?  We had better be planning for the future.  There is no lack of hope, however.

With careful planning and employment of suitable measures, we may be able to provide an acceptable level of security into the future.

For how long?  Answering that will surely require regular assessment of the threat landscape and the capabilities of our protective measures.  Security is always a "cat and mouse" (two-way) game.

Currently the claims of constructing rather advanced quantum computers are being evaluated with considerable skepticism, so we will have to see how fast the field advances with real hardware.

It is indeed an exciting time.