Re: [TSCM-L] {4695} Eyeballing The Great Eastern Wind

From: Adam Stenseth <lyn..._at_gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:13:52 -0800
So China is a MAD-relevant power now.   That's significant, but I h= onestly doubt even Taiwan is worth causing apocalypse for them; it just mea= ns the US can't wave the nuke stick at them with impunity.   
I suspect they're far more likely to sink us economically.   T= hough doing that without substantially diversifying trade partners would se= verely impact the economic growth that the central government counts on to = hold power, which would destabilize the country.   That might leave wea= pons that could reach north america in the hands of people with less to los= e (or a poorer grasp of the consequences, even). 

But it's not like the situation with Russia & the Ukraine (Russ= ia being so dependent on the Ukraine for trade & agriculture that Ukrai= ne joining NATO puts Russia in a subjugation-or-death scenario).    W= hat I'm interested to know is how flexible our aging long-range strateg= ic arsenal is; eg, can the guy at the console on the boat aim the missile a= t Beijing instead of Moscow, or does it take an SLBM tech at Bangor with a = soldering iron and an EEPROM writer an hour per MIRV to re-aim every one?
-a

On Wed, Feb 10, 2010 at 8:51 PM, J= ames M. Atkinson <jm= ..._at_tscm.com> wrote:
Here is one of the projects I am working on:

http://maps.g= oogle.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid=113906739083729317497.000= 47ededec590e546097

The project is to analyze and label all Chinese Strategic Nuclear Facilitie= s, and calculate the approximate number of bombers, fighters, submarines, r= ail mounted, and land mobile nuclear weapons and support facilities.

The maps have multiple pages, each containing details pictures of things th= at both the U.S. and Chinese Government keeps trying to downplay. The Chine= se government has way, way more long range destruction capability then the = U.S. Government has been talking about. This is a work in progress, and it = is incomplete... but more complete then most of what the U.S. Government ha= s openly published on the matter.

"The Great Eastern Wind" is the name of the long range Chinese nu= clear weapons program dating back into the late 70's that has much furt= her along of late then most realize, and which they dedicate more yearly bu= dget then any other program.

What is interesting is that right now China can turn most major cities in A= ustralia into a smoking cinder, and could inflict significant damage to the= continental United States, and over the upcoming three years they will be = able to convert any major U.S. city into a smoking cinder with far more dev= astation then the Soviets were ever capable of.

Sad part is that the huge budget diversion for this program is over ten yea= r old, with the largest facilities being built out starting seven years ago= , with Chinese nuclear submarines (nuclear propulsion and weaponry) working= off the coasts of Seattle, Los Angles, Virginia, and New York with impunit= y.

An aging, bearded Saudi national with bad kidneys, and a fetish for date an= d goat cheese, cowering  in a cave in Afghanistan is not what we should b= e concerned about at all.

The DF-31A, DF-31B, DF-41A (land and rail mobile 8K67), and Ju Lang-2 facil= ities have been online and working 24 hours per day for years. The 8K67 the= mselves do not appear to be made in China, and are likely Ukraine in origin= . The "Eastern Wind, #5" (DF-5) missiles appear to still be well = maintained given their age and huge size.

So far I have counted over 60 DF-31 rail based launchers (over half of thes= e may be DF-31A), and at least 18 more DF-41A on truck based launchers, and= these new missiles fairly small and movable.

There are over 192 JL-2 SLBM missiles, but the storage facilitates and mann= ing are suited for over 670 missiles with warheads.

The DF-41 is the new 6 ea,100 kT warhead multi-reentry vehicle ICBMs (600-8= 00 kT overall yield) that and being carted around the country-side by rail,= with a few land mobile/truck based launchers.

The move from a silo based strategic missile system to one that is rail and= submarine based in a interesting change.

-jma

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