This Will Not Go Well - Tehran To Showcase Might In Naval Drill - Navy Says Able To Close Strait Of Hormuz

From: James M. Atkinson <jm..._at_tscm.com>
Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2011 17:27:37 -0500

TEHRAN, Dec 22, (Agencies): Iran will on Saturday start naval exercises
in a region crucial for global oil supplies, state TV said, raising
concern about a possible closure of the world�s No. 1 shipping route for
crude in the case of military conflict between Tehran and the West. Iran
aims to flaunt its military might during the 10-day drill, dubbed
�Velayat-e 90,� at a time of heightened Iranian-Western tension over
Tehran�s nuclear programme that potentially could boil over into wider
hostilities in the Middle East. �The Velayat-e 90 naval manoeuvres will
start on Saturday and will be held in a 2,000-square km span of sea,�
Iranian navy commander Habibollah Sayyari told state television.
�Velayat� is Persian for �supremacy.� �The drill will display Iran�s
defensive and deterrent power as well as relaying a message of peace and
friendship in the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman and the free waters
of the Indian Ocean,� said Sayyari.

Stance
Echoing the stance of others in Iran�s factionalised leadership, Sayyari
said Iranian armed forces had the ability to shut the strategic strait
through which 40 percent of the global oil supply flows, if ever the
need arose. �Iran�s military and Revolutionary Guards can close the
Strait of Hormuz. But such a decision should be made by top
establishment leaders,� he said. Some analysts and diplomats believe the
Islamic Republic could try to block the strait in the event of any war
with the West over suspicions it is seeking atom bombs. Iran�s arch-foes
Israel and the United States have not ruled out military action if
diplomacy and sanctions fail to rein in Iran�s nuclear work. Iran says
it wants nuclear energy only for peaceful ends. Crude prices briefly
spiked on Dec 13 on media reports that Iran might close the Strait of
Hormuz, only to drop more than 4 percent the next day on revived euro
zone debt crisis worries. The Iranian Foreign Ministry last week denied
rumours about Tehran planning to seal off the strait but warned that the
waterway could be threatened if the currently surge in nuclear tension
ever escalated into war.

Access
Iran has said in the past said that it would respond to any attack by
targeting US interests in the region and Israel, as well as closing the
strait, the only access channel for eight US-aligned, Gulf Arab states
to foreign markets. Military experts say Iran�s armed forces could not
match US military technology but could still cause havoc in shipping
lanes, particularly using small craft for hit-and-run attacks. Iran
often announces advances in its military capabilities and tests weaponry
in an apparent attempt to show its readiness for any strikes by Israel
or the United States. Some analysts doubt Iran would close the Strait of
Hormuz if attacked. �Iran�s economy is reliant on petrodollars ...
Closure of the waterway will harm Iran more than others,� said an
analyst who asked not to be named. Oil earnings still comprise up to 60
percent of Iranian state income and the sanctions have put off an
increasing number of international companies from doing business in
Iran. Tehran publicly denies its economy suffers from sanctions.
The United States, Britain and Canada announced new measures against
Iran�s energy and financial sectors last month and the European Union is
considering a ban � already in place in the United States � on imports
of Iranian oil.
�More sanctions on Iran�s oil industry means a crippled economy for the
country,� said the analyst.

Failed
To ease international pressure, Iran has invited a team of senior U.N.
nuclear officials to visit the Islamic state in January to discuss
global concerns about the country�s nuclear aspirations. Such visits in
the past by senior IAEA officials have failed to resolve the
long-running nuclear row.
Tehran has been hit by U.N., US and European sanctions since 2006 for
refusing to halt its sensitive nuclear work.
Oil prices spiked dramatically after the rumour about the strait�s
potential closure emerged, but quickly returned to normal once the
rumour was discounted. More than a third of the world�s tanker oil
passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a vital transit point.
The United States maintains a naval presence in the Gulf to ensure it
remains open.
Sayyari said the �newest Iranian missile torpedo system,� and
�coordination between submarines and warships to confront piracy,
environmental threats and terrorism,� would be featured in the new drill.
Tehran�s navy is tasked with defending Iranian waters east of the Strait
of Hormuz, while the Islamic republic�s elite Revolutionary Guards is in
charge of Iranian coast in the Gulf.
In recent years, both Iranian vessels and those of other nations have
received Iranian naval escorts through the pirate-infested waters off
Somalia.
Sayari has previously said that Iran�s navy has escorted more than 1,300
ships and faced-off hundreds of armed clashes with pirates.

--
James M. Atkinson
President and Sr. Engineer
"Leonardo da Vinci of Bug Sweeps and Spy Hunting"
http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=15178662
Granite Island Group
jm..._at_tscm.com
http://www.tscm.com/
(978) 546-3803
Received on Sat Mar 02 2024 - 00:57:22 CST

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