Re: [TSCM-L] {5393} Frequency Range of Log Periodic

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Date: Sat, 30 May 2009 21:51:29 -0400
To: TSCM-L <TSCM-..._at_googlegroups.com>
From: "James M. Atkinson" <jm..._at_tscm.com>
Subject: Home mortgage delinquencies hit highest rate since 1972
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http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-05-28-Home-sales_N.htm

Home mortgage delinquencies hit highest rate since 1972

By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY

Nearly 1 in 8 of the nation's home mortgage=20
holders were behind in their payments in the=20
first quarter =97 the most since at least 1972, the=20
Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

It said more than 12% of residential mortgage=20
loans were delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure.

The rate of foreclosure actions begun the past=20
quarter also beat MBA figures going back to 1972.

Delinquencies and foreclosures rose despite=20
aggressive federal efforts to curb foreclosures=20
by getting homeowners into more affordable mortgages.

"It was a very disconcerting report. The problems=20
are well beyond subprime, all homeowners are=20
suffering, including prime borrowers, and it's=20
coast to coast," says Mark Zandi at Moody's Economy.com.

"As foreclosures rise, house prices will fall and=20
undermine household wealth and consumer=20
spending," he says. "The rise in foreclosure is=20
the significant threat to the end of the recession."

The delinquency rate on mortgage loans for=20
residential properties was 8.22% on a=20
non-seasonally adjusted basis at the end of the=20
first quarter, the MBA said. That rate includes=20
loans at least one payment behind but not loans=20
in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of=20
loans in some stage of foreclosure was 3.85%.

Meanwhile, the foreclosure rate on prime=20
fixed-rate loans doubled in the first quarter compared with a year ago.

Prime fixed-rate loans now represent the largest=20
share of new foreclosures, says Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's chief economist.

While foreclosure sales have cut home prices,=20
buyers may now face rising interest rates. The=20
average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was=20
4.91% as of Thursday, according to Freddie Mac's=20
weekly survey. Comparable rates were 4.82% last=20
week, 4.78% in early and late April and 6.08% a year ago.

Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors, says=20
foreclosures will worsen in coming quarters due=20
to rising unemployment and the end of moratoriums.

"The end isn't even close in terms of the rise in=20
foreclosures we'll see," he says.



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-------------------------
  James M. Atkinson Phone: (978) 546-3803
  Granite Island Group Fax: (978) 546-9467
  127 Eastern Avenue #291 Web: http://www.tscm.com/
  Gloucester, MA 01931-8008 E-mail: mailto:jm..._at_tscm.com
                http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesmatkinson
---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
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-------------------------
  No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the
  enemy until it is ripe for execution. - Machiavelli, The Prince, 1521 =20
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<html>
<body>
<br>
<a href=3D"http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-05-28-Home-sa=
les_N.htm" eudora=3D"autourl">
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-05-28-Home-sales_N.htm</=
a>
<br><br>
Home mortgage delinquencies hit highest rate since 1972&nbsp; <br><br>
By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY<br><br>
Nearly 1 in 8 of the nation's home mortgage holders were behind in their
payments in the first quarter =97 the most since at least 1972, the
Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.<br><br>
It said more than 12% of residential mortgage loans were delinquent or in
some stage of foreclosure.<br><br>
The rate of foreclosure actions begun the past quarter also beat MBA
figures going back to 1972.<br><br>
Delinquencies and foreclosures rose despite aggressive federal efforts to
curb foreclosures by getting homeowners into more affordable
mortgages.<br><br>
&quot;It was a very disconcerting report. The problems are well beyond
subprime, all homeowners are suffering, including prime borrowers, and
it's coast to coast,&quot; says Mark Zandi at Moody's
Economy.com.<br><br>
&quot;As foreclosures rise, house prices will fall and undermine
household wealth and consumer spending,&quot; he says. &quot;The rise in
foreclosure is the significant threat to the end of the
recession.&quot;<br><br>
The delinquency rate on mortgage loans for residential properties was
8.22% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis at the end of the first quarter,
the MBA said. That rate includes loans at least one payment behind but
not loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in some
stage of foreclosure was 3.85%.<br><br>
Meanwhile, the foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans doubled in the
first quarter compared with a year ago.<br><br>
Prime fixed-rate loans now represent the largest share of new
foreclosures, says Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's chief economist.<br><br>
While foreclosure sales have cut home prices, buyers may now face rising
interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was 4.91%
as of Thursday, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Comparable
rates were 4.82% last week, 4.78% in early and late April and 6.08% a
year ago.<br><br>
Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors, says foreclosures will worsen
in coming quarters due to rising unemployment and the end of
moratoriums.<br><br>
&quot;The end isn't even close in terms of the rise in foreclosures we'll
see,&quot; he says.<br><br>
<br>
<x-sigsep><p></x-sigsep>
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-------------------------<br>
&nbsp;James M.
Atkinson&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
 Phone: (978) 546-3803<br>
&nbsp;Granite Island
Group&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
 Fax:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (978) 546-9467<br>
&nbsp;127 Eastern Avenue
#291&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp=
;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
 Web:&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
<a href=3D"http://www.tscm.com/" eudora=3D"autourl">http://www.tscm.com/<br=
>
</a>&nbsp;Gloucester, MA
01931-8008&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp=
;&nbsp;
 E-mail:=20
<a href=3D"mailto:jm..._at_tscm.com" eudora=3D"autourl">mailto:jm..._at_tscm.com<=
br>
</a>&nbsp;<b>&nbsp;=20
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
<a href=3D"http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesmatkinson" eudora=3D"autourl">
http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesmatkinson<br>
</a></b>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------------------------<br>
&nbsp;No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the
<br>
&nbsp;enemy until it is ripe for execution. - Machiavelli, The Prince,
1521 </body>
</html>

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