In a message dated 6/20/01 1:40:29 AM, jbryant9@tampabay.rr.com writes:
From: John Bryant (www.thebirdman.org)
To: John Lott
Re: Multifactorial impact on crime
Dear Prof Lott:
While you are rightly famous for noting that 'more guns, less crime', it
struck me that the impact of guns which was quoted in one of your papers
seemed rather small, viz 1% (sorry, the reference escapes me). More to the
point, however, is that thee are other important factors which would
intuitively seem to have an important impact on crime, and which cannot be
ignored without introducing a veritable Black Hole into the picture of what
really affects crime. These factors are:
* Race (blacks are incarcerated at 9 times the rate of whites, Hispanics
about 3 times)
* Racial homogeniety (according to Dr Thomas Sowell, there are no
multicultural societies without significant racial conflict except those in
which one race is dominant, and conflict may correlate with crime)
* Age (Younger populations commit more crimes)
* Intelligence (low IQ prevents people from seeing the connection between
misbehavior and punishment)
Other possible factors include income level (do the poor commit more
crimes?), drug use (are the spaced-out more prone to crime?)
My point is that studies which do not include factors such as the starred
ones may be significantly deficient, tho this is not intended to deny the
importance of your pioneering work.
Therefore, your reactions would be appreciated.
From: <JohnRLott@aol.com> To: <john@thebirdman.org> Subject: Re: Important question Date: Wednesday, June 20, 2001 1:54 PM
Dear John:
Thanks very much for your note. My book examines hundreds of factors that impact crime rates. Demographics do indeed help explain some of the changes in crime rates and that is why my research contains 36 different age, sex, and race variables. The most important factors though are the police via arrest rates followed by conviction rates and prison sentences. In terms of a cost-benefit basis concealed handguns are extremely important, but their absolute impact is smaller than for law enforcement.
By the way, Tom Sowell is a former professor of mine.
Best,
John
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