DR Livcni Substack post:Multipolar Resistance Review!
https://drlivci.substack.com/p/multipola...ew-a-quick
Great analysis and very funny. He was a regular poster here. He has a style similar to Anglin. He lives in Russia and has some great perspective. I posted full article below.
Great analysis and very funny. He was a regular poster here. He has a style similar to Anglin. He lives in Russia and has some great perspective. I posted full article below.
1 like: 
03-11-2026, 12:16 AM
Iran is the hottest topic on the internet right now and since the fate of the SMO and Russia is tied to Iran, I suppose it’s something worth addressing. My substack slop feed on Notes is full of predictions ranging from total ZOG defeat to de-facto ZOG defeat via the current regime in Tehran surviving the war. IMO anyone hoping that Israel and the US are finally going to be checked are setting themsleves up for disappointment and the best way to make that case is retracing exactly how we got to this point. In January of 2020 the Syrian Military and Regime Loyal Militias launched an attack on Idlib which was the NATO Jihadist final serious stronghold in Northern Syria. Ankara was in a panic, Turkish Army Troops were taking losses, and Erdogan was screaming for even more NATO intervention. If Western European Governments and America weren’t ready to make any overt commitments at the time about saving Idlib for the Jihadist Moscow was more than willing to reign in Assad when the Syrian Military was on the verge of a major victory. After the Syrians had recaptured about half of Idlib province from the Turks and Jihadist Moscow forced Damascus to honor the agreement with Turkey on the so called Idlib De-escalation zone.
The talks with the participation of Putin and Erdogan lasted about six hours, including more than two hours of tete-a-tete conversation between the presidents.
The additional protocol agreed by the parties refers to the “Memorandum on stabilizing the situation in the Idlib de-escalation zone”, which was signed in September 2018 in Sochi following the talks between Putin and Erdogan. The original document has never been officially published, but excerpts from it have been quoted by the Arab and Russian press. Then the parties once again agreed, in particular, on the creation of a demilitarized zone in Idlib and joint patrolling.
The reason for the Russian-Turkish talks at the highest level was the sharp aggravation of the situation in Idlib, where in January the Syrian army launched a large-scale offensive against the positions of the armed opposition and terrorists. Government forces managed to recapture almost half of the Idlib de-escalation zone and capture a number of Turkish observation posts, in connection with which Ankara sharply increased its military contingent in the region, launched Operation Spring Shield to push back Syrian troops, and increased support for militants loyal to it. In February, Turkey lost at least 62 servicemen killed, almost 100 soldiers were wounded, several dozen units of Turkish armored vehicles were destroyed and more than ten drones, including attack drones, were shot down.
So back in early 2020 when the Syrians had some fight in them plus the wind at their back, they were not just clobbering the Epstein Jihadist but even the Regular Turkish Army. Those were the days. As always though Moscow flew in to save the situation for Russia’s geopolitical enemies and pried defeat from the jaws of victory. Fast forward about 4 years and we know how this all turned out. NATO Jihadis came streaming out of this de-escalation zone and Assads Regime collapsed in less than 2 weeks. In the years between Moscow forcing Assad to halt the offensive on Idlib and the fall of Damascus neither the Syrian Authorities nor their nominal allies in Russia and Iran did anything to strengthen the Syrian Military, on the contrary it appears they were indifferent as it steadily rotted from the inside. This is a post from the fairly well known and Kremlin Friendly Russian Military Analyst Rybar from October 8 2024, well over a month before the jihadist offensive out of Idlib that eventually led to the fall of Assads Regime.
On the prospects of destabilization of the situation in Syria
In the Iranian government publication Tasnim (https://t.me/Tasnimnews/319840 ), citing sources in Syria, it is reported that pro-Turkish formations in the Idlib de-escalation zone are preparing to intensify fighting against the Syrian government.
According to the Iranians, the militants of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian National Army and other factions have agreed with the Israeli government to conduct simultaneous operations against the backdrop of fighting in Lebanon.
Another potential front against the Syrian leadership is the southern regions of Syria. We are talking about the provinces of Daraa, Quneitra and Al-Suwayda, where the Druze live, who have been creating unrest in southern Syria in recent months.
According to our information, since the spring, work has been underway in Essaouida to create an armed tribal council, which in the future may be used against the government, and financing is provided by coalition forces.
As for the Idlib zone, the evacuation of local residents has begun from the vicinity of An-Neirab, Afes and Kafr Nuran, and militants are actively equipping ATGM, mortar and artillery positions near the government-run Seraqib.
In addition, mobile air defense systems were supplied to the terrorists from the territory of Turkey. If you remember who has been carrying out airstrikes against the positions of the gangs for several months now, then you can guess against whom.
In the same row, we can include increasingly confident evidence of the partial restoration of the combat potential of the IG, which has been hiding in the Syrian deserts in recent years and has been attacking stealthily, demonstrating its capabilities.
In addition, we must not forget the rumors about the recent escape of terrorists from the Kurdish-guarded prison in Baghouz. This fact was not widely publicized online, but if we recall previous years, the militants escaped from the Kurdish-American guard more than once.
Well, the icing on the cake can be called the fact that the Americans in the Al-Tanf zone have intensified the training of manual fighters in these two years (the former “special forces” of the Maghavir al-Saura group) for conducting local operations in urban areas. Moreover, this was done secretly, and where the militants disappeared after is a mystery.
Now imagine what would happen if all these forces in Syria, starting from the Druze protesters and ending with the IS militants, started simultaneous actions against the Syrian government and Iran and Russia supporting it?
Of course, all this looks like a conspiracy, but the question arises: who was in charge of ISIS during the war in Syria and Iraq? Who is behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Democratic Forces? Who is influencing the Syrian Druze?
In terms of consequences, such a complex operation would not only put an end to any prospects for normalizing life in Syria, but would also jeopardize the Russian presence in the country.
The Iranians saw it coming, the Russians saw it coming, and nobody did shit. Needless to say prior to Assads regime being swept away Israel had been bombing Syria with impunity for years. If Moscow was willing to dissuade Assad from finishing off the Jihadist Stronghold in Idlib than they were not willing to dissuade Israel from bombing Syria. This led to a situation where Tel Aviv felt empowered and confident enough to start openly bombing Iranian Government Property in Syria which has led to the current death spiral Iran now finds itself in. Lets cover this by bullet point:
April 1st 2024, Israel openly bombs the Iranian Embassy in Damascus killing 2 Generals.
On April 13th Iran launches a bunch of drones and missiles at Israel in response to the embassy bombing. Tehran provided Tel Aviv and the US with a warning about the impending attack 72 hours prior to make sure things didn’t get out of hand. The always accurate and reliable Scott Ritter said the Iranian Response called “Operation True Promise” was successful. In 2 quotes that have aged exceptionally well he stated: “This is why President Biden has been on the phone with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, telling him, 'Do not retaliate.' The United States will not be a partner in any offensive action against Iran. Not because the United States is friendly to Iran, but the United States understands the consequences that will accrue, should such an attack take place. The United States has been deterred against further action against Iran” and “Israel probably isn't going to launch a response against Iran. Israel has been deterred from launching that response by the Iranian actions. In this case, we can say that operation 'True Promise' was an extraordinarily successful operation, not only for Iran, but indeed for the world, because Iranian deterrence now is a reality that can hold Israel and the United States in check”. How much damage Operation True Promise did is debatable but it’s somewhere between none at all and very little and we can see today just how much Israel and America were deterred.
On July 31 2024 Ismail Haniyan, the Political Leader of Hamas was assassinated in Tehran while attending the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. It’s not clear if Haniyan was killed by an airstrike or by pre planted explosives but Tehran’s ability to protect VIPs has not improved in the ensuing years at all. At best Operation True Promise deterred Israel for less than 4 months necessitating True Promise 2.
On the 1st of October Iran initiates True Promise 2 by launching a bunch of drones and rockets at empty parking lots, tumbleweeds and various dirt berms and sand dunes around Israel. As with True Promise 1 Tehran warned Tel Aviv and the US beforehand to make sure things wouldn’t escalate to the point where a real war could brake out. Our ever prescient go to main man Scott Ritter commented on the outcome of Operation True Promise 2 with the following: “The Iranian ballistic missile attack of Oct. 1 vividly demonstrated to all Israelis the reality that there is no viable defense against these attacks. Moreover, if the Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate (and Israel has promised a retaliation of immense proportions), Iran has indicated it will destroy Israel’s critical infrastructure — power plants, water desalinization plants, energy production and distribution centers — in short, Israel will cease being able to function as a modern nation state”. As with True Promise 1 experts have heated debates about just how much damage True Promise 2 actually caused, some say none at all and others claim a very modest amount. If Tehran was hoping that once more blowing up remote dirt meadows in Isreal would dissuade the jews from further escalation it only worked until summer of 2025. BTW October 1st of 2024 was also when Israel invaded Lebanon and started finishing off Hezbollah after the September Exploding Pager Operation and the assassination of Nasrallah which decapitated their leadership. If there was ever a time Iran really, really should have hit something serious it was when Hezbollah was forced to fight totally leaderless on October 1st and before Syria fell less then 2 months later.
Between October 1st of 2024/Operation True Promise 2 and the 12 day war between Israel/America and Iran in summer of 2025 quite a lot happened that would prove very fateful for Iran, bringing into question how wise Tehran’s Restraint really was during their rather flaccid responses to Israels previous provocations. On November 26 Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire and surrendered Southern Lebanon to Israel. The official terms of the agreement were that Hezbollah would withdraw from the Israeli Border and the IDF would leave Southern Lebanon but shockingly what actually happened was that Hezbollah fulfilled it’s end while the IDF continued to occupy Southern Lebanon on top of regularly bombing the rest of the country. On November 27 2024, the day after the severely mauled Hezbollah signed a ceasefire with Israel that Tel Aviv didn’t honor Erdogan’s NATO jihadist began their offensive out of the Idlib de-escalation zone and Damascus fell 12 days later. Iran really, really should have considered hitting Israel hard BEFORE ALL THIS HAPPENED. Anyone seriously claiming success for Iran’s weak ass “deterrence” operations with True Promises 1 and 2 is a gas lighting shill full stop. Now as I already said Israel had been bombing Syria unimpeded for many years before Assads Government fell but the Israeli Airforce was greatly hindered in its operations against Iran because it couldn’t safely traverse Syrian Air Space in force whenever it wanted. Jordan is an Allie of Tel Aviv, but they would not let the Israeli Airforce use Jordanian Air Space at will, the same applied with Turkey. With Assad out of the way however the game totally changed as the NATO Jihadist granted Israel full use of “free” Syria’s airspace. With Iraq already a ZOG puppet there was nothing between judeo-American Airpower and Iran. If Russia had allowed Assad to finish of the globohomo wahhabis in 2020 this could have been avoided, if Russia would have allowed Syria to protect its airspace from Israel this could have been avoided, if Iran had spun into action to help Hezbollah after the assassination of Nasrallah and the Pager Incident this might have been avoided, if Iran hadn’t been content with using it’s missiles and drones to re-arrange dirt during Operations True Promise 1 and 2 this might have been avoided. The “Axis of Resistance” had to make a team effort to both lose Syria and make sure Hezbollah was in no shape to either defend Lebanon or Assads Government. But still…. even after these clear cut globohomo victories Israel and America weren’t entirely sure that they could just pulverize Iran. So, in Summer of 2025 they conducted a trial run with the 12-day war between the 13th and 24th of June.
On the 13th of June Israel, desperate to prevent another holocaust or whatever bombed what they claimed were a bunch of nuclear facilities in Iran. Mainstream news reported that Mossad had even established a secret drone base near Tehran which helped make sure Iranian Air Defenses didn’t work which I don’t find farfetched at all given how deep Mossad penetrated the Iranian Spook Apparatus. During the first day of the war 9 Iranian Nuclear Scientist would be killed as well as a bunch of High-Ranking Military Officers and Revolutionary Guard Generals. On June 15th Israel even made an attempt at assassinating Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian but the jews only managed to injure him a little bit. All things considered though the 12-day war was pretty anticlimactic for people expecting Armageddon or at least a serious happening. When it was all said and done ZOG said they had destroyed Iran’s nuclear program and Iran said they had defeated ZOG.
After obliterating Iran’s Nuclear Program in June of 2025, the judeo Americans had to start the war again on February 28th because Iran was 3 hours from acquiring the bomb
What we are more concerned with here is how did Iran respond to US/Israeli Aggression this time and did it dissuade further attacks against the Islamic Republic? According to Top Expert and Ace Analyst Scott Ritter the 12-day war was an unambiguous Iranian Victory: “By the wars conclusion Iranian Missiles were able to hit anywhere in Israel they wanted to hit….Irans ability to hit Israel had steadily increased and Israels ability to hit Iran had eroded, this is why Israel begged Donald Trump to bring an end to the conflict and he did”. In the same video Ritter predicted that in a future “real war” with Iran that American Aircraft Carriers would be “hunted down”. In any case Iran reacted to the Israeli attack just like they did the previous ones, they shot a bunch of rockets and drones at nothing in particular in most cases. This time around 95% of Iranian strikes just re-arranged dirt like always including at a US Airbase in Qatar. The other 5 percent hit Israeli Civilian targets including the Oil Refinery in Haifa and that’s fine with me personally. I think hitting Israeli Civilian Infrastructure is totally justified but the priority should be military and there is absolutely no serious evidence that Iran erased any Israeli Military Bases off the map. None whatsoever. There were more hits against high rises in Tel Aviv and Haifa and all that and burning jewish high rises are always eye candy. But it’s easy to forget that almost 500 Iranian Civilians were killed as opposed to less than 40 Israelis. Almost 500 Iranian Civilians killed and Tehran’s strategy was still to avoid hitting anything especially important in the hope that a serious war could be avoided.
The thing is, when Ritter said that Iran had proved that they could hit anywhere in Israel the fact of the matter is this had already been proven this with True Promises 1 and 2. The question was never could Iran, it was would they. During the 12-day war they showed once more they were unwilling, and that was after Israel had killed 9 Nuclear Scientist, a bunch of Generals and tried to kill the President. After all that Iran was still unwilling to hit anything of value. The Alt Medias Top Bad Boy Pepe Escobar said the following on Jan 19 of this year about the 12-day War “The 12-day war not only failed as a regime change op; it engendered a sample of Iranian retaliation so hardcore that Tel Aviv still has not recovered”. A bit over a month later and ZOG would kill Ayatollah Khamenei himself with an airstrike in Tehran. Apparently despite not having recovered from whatever Iran did during the 12-day war the judeo-Americans were still confident and unafraid enough to resume the war in earnest.
A fair question to ask is what Iran’s prospects are in the current phase of the war and imo a dead impartial analysis not colored but “alternative” media slop indicates that we shouldn’t expect anything good. Simplicius for example was recently crowing that most the attacks on Iran are coming from outside the countries borders but the image below shows the load out for F15s involved in the current campaign:
The 4 bombs attached to the main body of the aircraft are JDAMS. These bombs are delivered from well within Iranian airspace
Those 4 JDAMS are bad news, those are powerful bombs capable of destroying targets underground. They are dropped from high altitude, that is from an altitude typically considered dangerous if the enemy has working anti air defense, they can glide about 28 Kilometers meaning they are being dropped from high altitude well within Iranian Airspace. There is no reason to think that the US and Israel are going to run out of these any time soon. Boeing is capable of making tens of thousands of JDAMS a year and they ramped up production 2 years ago. That last linked article notes that on the other hand the US is running low on anti-aircraft interceptor missiles, but the past few years have shown that those don’t even work anyway against drone swarms and high-speed ballistic rockets. So, the US is running low on shit that doesn’t work in the first place. The JDAMS unfortunately really do work (I’ve seen the results with my own in eyes in Iraq) and there are enough to go around. As of right now the US doesn’t have total Air Supremacy over all of Iran but the fact that they are dropping JDAMS means they are creating pockets of airspace in the country where they can fly with impunity and it stands to reason that they will continue doing this. The only way Iran could have prevented this is if they had developed their own park of modern interceptor aircraft, but they never did so. The F15s dropping JDAMs on Iran are escorted by F16s armed with anti-radar missiles, their job is to take out Iranian air defense batteries as soon as the radar is turned on. This is naturally a dangerous game, but I wouldn’t bet on the Iranians winning. The fact that there are already pockets of Iranian Airspace where the judeo-Americans can fly safely indicates that they already have a method for overcoming Iranian anti air defenses and if someone wants to yammer that US and jewish aircraft only control part of the country right now you are basically bragging that “the US and the jews aren’t winning fast enough”.
As for boots on the ground I’m assuming we have all heard the rumors about the Azeris and Kurds getting involved. Iran’s Azeris are apparently the most religious people in the country and they haven’t manifested any tendencies towards separatism that I know of. But the US and Mossad are the world’s foremost experts at creating rent a separatist so we can’t rule out Azerbaijan sending in troops either. In other words, I just don’t know. Ayatollah Khamenei himself was an ethnic Azeri but tons of doctrinaire Communist Nomenklatura turned into ethnic nationalist for sale to globohomo overnight in the 90s. The question is simply does ZOG have a pocket army of rent a separatist handy for doing most the on the ground work and unfortunately that is one area where CIA and Mossad genuinely excel. But let’s say that they don’t, at the very least the US and Israel are going to absolutely destroy anything of economic value in the country like they did with Syria and even though it took almost 14 years Tel Aviv and Washington finally got rid of Assads Regime. We often hear that the Axis of Resistance plays chess while America plays checkers, but the opposite appears to be the case if we are being objective. At absolutely no time has Russia or Iran tried anything vs the West other than desperately grasping at every attempt to negotiate and de-escalate while the West has been dead set on destroying whatever it has it’s sites set on. If America wasn’t capable of toppling Assad in 2016 they bid their time until they were capable. When things looked bad for NATO wahhabis in 2020 the West got Putin to yank Assads chain. Then they finished the job when they were ready. If Israel couldn’t handle Hezbollah in 2007 they regrouped and came back when they were ready. The Resistance in contrast does not regroup and get ready, time has shown again and again that they are fanatically dedicated to de-escalation and reaching agreements with people that never honor them. So even if Tel Aviv and Washington don’t have rent a separatist on hand in the required numbers right now it would be folly to think that this will stop them from finishing Iran eventually. When Assad was swept away in December of 2024 who thought Maduro and Khamenei would follow so soon afterwords? Events are picking up and opposing the Axis of Epstein requires more than messianic de-escalation and commitment to negotiations even if it kills you and destroys your entire country.
Of course, Iran has provided us with more pretty pictures of burning high rises in Israel and the Gulf States. Americas Military KIA are creeping up on double digits, and we have seen some pictures of destroyed American and Israeli Radar installations. This is all great, but Iran is also generally being blown back into the stone age. Do the Iranians have the means and will to make all of Israel look like Gaza? If they do, then why haven’t they already? Gotta hope for de-escalation and negotiations? 5D chess? When it comes to the US and Israel, we know they will turn Iran into a giant Gaza. In short fanatical, messianic de-escalators and negotiators will always lose to goal oriented fanatical, messianic murderers.
The talks with the participation of Putin and Erdogan lasted about six hours, including more than two hours of tete-a-tete conversation between the presidents.
The additional protocol agreed by the parties refers to the “Memorandum on stabilizing the situation in the Idlib de-escalation zone”, which was signed in September 2018 in Sochi following the talks between Putin and Erdogan. The original document has never been officially published, but excerpts from it have been quoted by the Arab and Russian press. Then the parties once again agreed, in particular, on the creation of a demilitarized zone in Idlib and joint patrolling.
The reason for the Russian-Turkish talks at the highest level was the sharp aggravation of the situation in Idlib, where in January the Syrian army launched a large-scale offensive against the positions of the armed opposition and terrorists. Government forces managed to recapture almost half of the Idlib de-escalation zone and capture a number of Turkish observation posts, in connection with which Ankara sharply increased its military contingent in the region, launched Operation Spring Shield to push back Syrian troops, and increased support for militants loyal to it. In February, Turkey lost at least 62 servicemen killed, almost 100 soldiers were wounded, several dozen units of Turkish armored vehicles were destroyed and more than ten drones, including attack drones, were shot down.
So back in early 2020 when the Syrians had some fight in them plus the wind at their back, they were not just clobbering the Epstein Jihadist but even the Regular Turkish Army. Those were the days. As always though Moscow flew in to save the situation for Russia’s geopolitical enemies and pried defeat from the jaws of victory. Fast forward about 4 years and we know how this all turned out. NATO Jihadis came streaming out of this de-escalation zone and Assads Regime collapsed in less than 2 weeks. In the years between Moscow forcing Assad to halt the offensive on Idlib and the fall of Damascus neither the Syrian Authorities nor their nominal allies in Russia and Iran did anything to strengthen the Syrian Military, on the contrary it appears they were indifferent as it steadily rotted from the inside. This is a post from the fairly well known and Kremlin Friendly Russian Military Analyst Rybar from October 8 2024, well over a month before the jihadist offensive out of Idlib that eventually led to the fall of Assads Regime.
On the prospects of destabilization of the situation in Syria
In the Iranian government publication Tasnim (https://t.me/Tasnimnews/319840 ), citing sources in Syria, it is reported that pro-Turkish formations in the Idlib de-escalation zone are preparing to intensify fighting against the Syrian government.
According to the Iranians, the militants of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian National Army and other factions have agreed with the Israeli government to conduct simultaneous operations against the backdrop of fighting in Lebanon.
Another potential front against the Syrian leadership is the southern regions of Syria. We are talking about the provinces of Daraa, Quneitra and Al-Suwayda, where the Druze live, who have been creating unrest in southern Syria in recent months.
According to our information, since the spring, work has been underway in Essaouida to create an armed tribal council, which in the future may be used against the government, and financing is provided by coalition forces.
As for the Idlib zone, the evacuation of local residents has begun from the vicinity of An-Neirab, Afes and Kafr Nuran, and militants are actively equipping ATGM, mortar and artillery positions near the government-run Seraqib.
In addition, mobile air defense systems were supplied to the terrorists from the territory of Turkey. If you remember who has been carrying out airstrikes against the positions of the gangs for several months now, then you can guess against whom.
In the same row, we can include increasingly confident evidence of the partial restoration of the combat potential of the IG, which has been hiding in the Syrian deserts in recent years and has been attacking stealthily, demonstrating its capabilities.
In addition, we must not forget the rumors about the recent escape of terrorists from the Kurdish-guarded prison in Baghouz. This fact was not widely publicized online, but if we recall previous years, the militants escaped from the Kurdish-American guard more than once.
Well, the icing on the cake can be called the fact that the Americans in the Al-Tanf zone have intensified the training of manual fighters in these two years (the former “special forces” of the Maghavir al-Saura group) for conducting local operations in urban areas. Moreover, this was done secretly, and where the militants disappeared after is a mystery.
Now imagine what would happen if all these forces in Syria, starting from the Druze protesters and ending with the IS militants, started simultaneous actions against the Syrian government and Iran and Russia supporting it?
Of course, all this looks like a conspiracy, but the question arises: who was in charge of ISIS during the war in Syria and Iraq? Who is behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Democratic Forces? Who is influencing the Syrian Druze?
In terms of consequences, such a complex operation would not only put an end to any prospects for normalizing life in Syria, but would also jeopardize the Russian presence in the country.
The Iranians saw it coming, the Russians saw it coming, and nobody did shit. Needless to say prior to Assads regime being swept away Israel had been bombing Syria with impunity for years. If Moscow was willing to dissuade Assad from finishing off the Jihadist Stronghold in Idlib than they were not willing to dissuade Israel from bombing Syria. This led to a situation where Tel Aviv felt empowered and confident enough to start openly bombing Iranian Government Property in Syria which has led to the current death spiral Iran now finds itself in. Lets cover this by bullet point:
April 1st 2024, Israel openly bombs the Iranian Embassy in Damascus killing 2 Generals.
On April 13th Iran launches a bunch of drones and missiles at Israel in response to the embassy bombing. Tehran provided Tel Aviv and the US with a warning about the impending attack 72 hours prior to make sure things didn’t get out of hand. The always accurate and reliable Scott Ritter said the Iranian Response called “Operation True Promise” was successful. In 2 quotes that have aged exceptionally well he stated: “This is why President Biden has been on the phone with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, telling him, 'Do not retaliate.' The United States will not be a partner in any offensive action against Iran. Not because the United States is friendly to Iran, but the United States understands the consequences that will accrue, should such an attack take place. The United States has been deterred against further action against Iran” and “Israel probably isn't going to launch a response against Iran. Israel has been deterred from launching that response by the Iranian actions. In this case, we can say that operation 'True Promise' was an extraordinarily successful operation, not only for Iran, but indeed for the world, because Iranian deterrence now is a reality that can hold Israel and the United States in check”. How much damage Operation True Promise did is debatable but it’s somewhere between none at all and very little and we can see today just how much Israel and America were deterred.
On July 31 2024 Ismail Haniyan, the Political Leader of Hamas was assassinated in Tehran while attending the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. It’s not clear if Haniyan was killed by an airstrike or by pre planted explosives but Tehran’s ability to protect VIPs has not improved in the ensuing years at all. At best Operation True Promise deterred Israel for less than 4 months necessitating True Promise 2.
On the 1st of October Iran initiates True Promise 2 by launching a bunch of drones and rockets at empty parking lots, tumbleweeds and various dirt berms and sand dunes around Israel. As with True Promise 1 Tehran warned Tel Aviv and the US beforehand to make sure things wouldn’t escalate to the point where a real war could brake out. Our ever prescient go to main man Scott Ritter commented on the outcome of Operation True Promise 2 with the following: “The Iranian ballistic missile attack of Oct. 1 vividly demonstrated to all Israelis the reality that there is no viable defense against these attacks. Moreover, if the Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate (and Israel has promised a retaliation of immense proportions), Iran has indicated it will destroy Israel’s critical infrastructure — power plants, water desalinization plants, energy production and distribution centers — in short, Israel will cease being able to function as a modern nation state”. As with True Promise 1 experts have heated debates about just how much damage True Promise 2 actually caused, some say none at all and others claim a very modest amount. If Tehran was hoping that once more blowing up remote dirt meadows in Isreal would dissuade the jews from further escalation it only worked until summer of 2025. BTW October 1st of 2024 was also when Israel invaded Lebanon and started finishing off Hezbollah after the September Exploding Pager Operation and the assassination of Nasrallah which decapitated their leadership. If there was ever a time Iran really, really should have hit something serious it was when Hezbollah was forced to fight totally leaderless on October 1st and before Syria fell less then 2 months later.
Between October 1st of 2024/Operation True Promise 2 and the 12 day war between Israel/America and Iran in summer of 2025 quite a lot happened that would prove very fateful for Iran, bringing into question how wise Tehran’s Restraint really was during their rather flaccid responses to Israels previous provocations. On November 26 Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire and surrendered Southern Lebanon to Israel. The official terms of the agreement were that Hezbollah would withdraw from the Israeli Border and the IDF would leave Southern Lebanon but shockingly what actually happened was that Hezbollah fulfilled it’s end while the IDF continued to occupy Southern Lebanon on top of regularly bombing the rest of the country. On November 27 2024, the day after the severely mauled Hezbollah signed a ceasefire with Israel that Tel Aviv didn’t honor Erdogan’s NATO jihadist began their offensive out of the Idlib de-escalation zone and Damascus fell 12 days later. Iran really, really should have considered hitting Israel hard BEFORE ALL THIS HAPPENED. Anyone seriously claiming success for Iran’s weak ass “deterrence” operations with True Promises 1 and 2 is a gas lighting shill full stop. Now as I already said Israel had been bombing Syria unimpeded for many years before Assads Government fell but the Israeli Airforce was greatly hindered in its operations against Iran because it couldn’t safely traverse Syrian Air Space in force whenever it wanted. Jordan is an Allie of Tel Aviv, but they would not let the Israeli Airforce use Jordanian Air Space at will, the same applied with Turkey. With Assad out of the way however the game totally changed as the NATO Jihadist granted Israel full use of “free” Syria’s airspace. With Iraq already a ZOG puppet there was nothing between judeo-American Airpower and Iran. If Russia had allowed Assad to finish of the globohomo wahhabis in 2020 this could have been avoided, if Russia would have allowed Syria to protect its airspace from Israel this could have been avoided, if Iran had spun into action to help Hezbollah after the assassination of Nasrallah and the Pager Incident this might have been avoided, if Iran hadn’t been content with using it’s missiles and drones to re-arrange dirt during Operations True Promise 1 and 2 this might have been avoided. The “Axis of Resistance” had to make a team effort to both lose Syria and make sure Hezbollah was in no shape to either defend Lebanon or Assads Government. But still…. even after these clear cut globohomo victories Israel and America weren’t entirely sure that they could just pulverize Iran. So, in Summer of 2025 they conducted a trial run with the 12-day war between the 13th and 24th of June.
On the 13th of June Israel, desperate to prevent another holocaust or whatever bombed what they claimed were a bunch of nuclear facilities in Iran. Mainstream news reported that Mossad had even established a secret drone base near Tehran which helped make sure Iranian Air Defenses didn’t work which I don’t find farfetched at all given how deep Mossad penetrated the Iranian Spook Apparatus. During the first day of the war 9 Iranian Nuclear Scientist would be killed as well as a bunch of High-Ranking Military Officers and Revolutionary Guard Generals. On June 15th Israel even made an attempt at assassinating Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian but the jews only managed to injure him a little bit. All things considered though the 12-day war was pretty anticlimactic for people expecting Armageddon or at least a serious happening. When it was all said and done ZOG said they had destroyed Iran’s nuclear program and Iran said they had defeated ZOG.
After obliterating Iran’s Nuclear Program in June of 2025, the judeo Americans had to start the war again on February 28th because Iran was 3 hours from acquiring the bomb
What we are more concerned with here is how did Iran respond to US/Israeli Aggression this time and did it dissuade further attacks against the Islamic Republic? According to Top Expert and Ace Analyst Scott Ritter the 12-day war was an unambiguous Iranian Victory: “By the wars conclusion Iranian Missiles were able to hit anywhere in Israel they wanted to hit….Irans ability to hit Israel had steadily increased and Israels ability to hit Iran had eroded, this is why Israel begged Donald Trump to bring an end to the conflict and he did”. In the same video Ritter predicted that in a future “real war” with Iran that American Aircraft Carriers would be “hunted down”. In any case Iran reacted to the Israeli attack just like they did the previous ones, they shot a bunch of rockets and drones at nothing in particular in most cases. This time around 95% of Iranian strikes just re-arranged dirt like always including at a US Airbase in Qatar. The other 5 percent hit Israeli Civilian targets including the Oil Refinery in Haifa and that’s fine with me personally. I think hitting Israeli Civilian Infrastructure is totally justified but the priority should be military and there is absolutely no serious evidence that Iran erased any Israeli Military Bases off the map. None whatsoever. There were more hits against high rises in Tel Aviv and Haifa and all that and burning jewish high rises are always eye candy. But it’s easy to forget that almost 500 Iranian Civilians were killed as opposed to less than 40 Israelis. Almost 500 Iranian Civilians killed and Tehran’s strategy was still to avoid hitting anything especially important in the hope that a serious war could be avoided.
The thing is, when Ritter said that Iran had proved that they could hit anywhere in Israel the fact of the matter is this had already been proven this with True Promises 1 and 2. The question was never could Iran, it was would they. During the 12-day war they showed once more they were unwilling, and that was after Israel had killed 9 Nuclear Scientist, a bunch of Generals and tried to kill the President. After all that Iran was still unwilling to hit anything of value. The Alt Medias Top Bad Boy Pepe Escobar said the following on Jan 19 of this year about the 12-day War “The 12-day war not only failed as a regime change op; it engendered a sample of Iranian retaliation so hardcore that Tel Aviv still has not recovered”. A bit over a month later and ZOG would kill Ayatollah Khamenei himself with an airstrike in Tehran. Apparently despite not having recovered from whatever Iran did during the 12-day war the judeo-Americans were still confident and unafraid enough to resume the war in earnest.
A fair question to ask is what Iran’s prospects are in the current phase of the war and imo a dead impartial analysis not colored but “alternative” media slop indicates that we shouldn’t expect anything good. Simplicius for example was recently crowing that most the attacks on Iran are coming from outside the countries borders but the image below shows the load out for F15s involved in the current campaign:
The 4 bombs attached to the main body of the aircraft are JDAMS. These bombs are delivered from well within Iranian airspace
Those 4 JDAMS are bad news, those are powerful bombs capable of destroying targets underground. They are dropped from high altitude, that is from an altitude typically considered dangerous if the enemy has working anti air defense, they can glide about 28 Kilometers meaning they are being dropped from high altitude well within Iranian Airspace. There is no reason to think that the US and Israel are going to run out of these any time soon. Boeing is capable of making tens of thousands of JDAMS a year and they ramped up production 2 years ago. That last linked article notes that on the other hand the US is running low on anti-aircraft interceptor missiles, but the past few years have shown that those don’t even work anyway against drone swarms and high-speed ballistic rockets. So, the US is running low on shit that doesn’t work in the first place. The JDAMS unfortunately really do work (I’ve seen the results with my own in eyes in Iraq) and there are enough to go around. As of right now the US doesn’t have total Air Supremacy over all of Iran but the fact that they are dropping JDAMS means they are creating pockets of airspace in the country where they can fly with impunity and it stands to reason that they will continue doing this. The only way Iran could have prevented this is if they had developed their own park of modern interceptor aircraft, but they never did so. The F15s dropping JDAMs on Iran are escorted by F16s armed with anti-radar missiles, their job is to take out Iranian air defense batteries as soon as the radar is turned on. This is naturally a dangerous game, but I wouldn’t bet on the Iranians winning. The fact that there are already pockets of Iranian Airspace where the judeo-Americans can fly safely indicates that they already have a method for overcoming Iranian anti air defenses and if someone wants to yammer that US and jewish aircraft only control part of the country right now you are basically bragging that “the US and the jews aren’t winning fast enough”.
As for boots on the ground I’m assuming we have all heard the rumors about the Azeris and Kurds getting involved. Iran’s Azeris are apparently the most religious people in the country and they haven’t manifested any tendencies towards separatism that I know of. But the US and Mossad are the world’s foremost experts at creating rent a separatist so we can’t rule out Azerbaijan sending in troops either. In other words, I just don’t know. Ayatollah Khamenei himself was an ethnic Azeri but tons of doctrinaire Communist Nomenklatura turned into ethnic nationalist for sale to globohomo overnight in the 90s. The question is simply does ZOG have a pocket army of rent a separatist handy for doing most the on the ground work and unfortunately that is one area where CIA and Mossad genuinely excel. But let’s say that they don’t, at the very least the US and Israel are going to absolutely destroy anything of economic value in the country like they did with Syria and even though it took almost 14 years Tel Aviv and Washington finally got rid of Assads Regime. We often hear that the Axis of Resistance plays chess while America plays checkers, but the opposite appears to be the case if we are being objective. At absolutely no time has Russia or Iran tried anything vs the West other than desperately grasping at every attempt to negotiate and de-escalate while the West has been dead set on destroying whatever it has it’s sites set on. If America wasn’t capable of toppling Assad in 2016 they bid their time until they were capable. When things looked bad for NATO wahhabis in 2020 the West got Putin to yank Assads chain. Then they finished the job when they were ready. If Israel couldn’t handle Hezbollah in 2007 they regrouped and came back when they were ready. The Resistance in contrast does not regroup and get ready, time has shown again and again that they are fanatically dedicated to de-escalation and reaching agreements with people that never honor them. So even if Tel Aviv and Washington don’t have rent a separatist on hand in the required numbers right now it would be folly to think that this will stop them from finishing Iran eventually. When Assad was swept away in December of 2024 who thought Maduro and Khamenei would follow so soon afterwords? Events are picking up and opposing the Axis of Epstein requires more than messianic de-escalation and commitment to negotiations even if it kills you and destroys your entire country.
Of course, Iran has provided us with more pretty pictures of burning high rises in Israel and the Gulf States. Americas Military KIA are creeping up on double digits, and we have seen some pictures of destroyed American and Israeli Radar installations. This is all great, but Iran is also generally being blown back into the stone age. Do the Iranians have the means and will to make all of Israel look like Gaza? If they do, then why haven’t they already? Gotta hope for de-escalation and negotiations? 5D chess? When it comes to the US and Israel, we know they will turn Iran into a giant Gaza. In short fanatical, messianic de-escalators and negotiators will always lose to goal oriented fanatical, messianic murderers.
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