Phoenix Project:

Preparing to

Survive Y2K

By Bruce Pickelheimer

NOTICE

This book is offered as shareware. If you download it, like it, and decideto keep it, please send $5 to the author at:

Bruce Pickelheimer
P.O. Box 15866
Ft. Wayne, IN 46885-5866

If anyone wants to contact the author, you can e-mail me at:

Litz_Out@yahoo.com

This book is the first of a nine book series which I have planned. If thereis sufficient demand for the remaining books in the series, I will completethem and get them posted as well. If the shareware fees allow me to concentrateon writing instead of getting things set up for my family, all of the booksin the series will be completed and posted online by October 15, 1999.

This book has been copyrighted, and all sales, reproductions, and use withoutpermission from the author is prohibited. The author gives permission forthe book to be downloaded and read in exchange for the shareware fee. Ifyou do not want to pay the shareware fee, do not keep a copy of the book. The author also gives those who send in their shareware fee the right tomake one hard copy for their own use. All copies, electronic or printed,must include this notice.
Chapter 1

The first major glitch to come to public attention regarding an actual Y2Kproblem involving running software was downplayed by the media. After all,it wasn't really such a big deal that Visa, one of the largest credit cardcompanies in the country, was unable to let its new or renewing credit cardcustomers use their credit cards for six months. The problem was that theircomputer software recognized the year 2000 as the year 1900 and wouldn't letthe cards be used because they were expired. Besides, it only took them sixmonths to fix this minor error in their computer programs.

Rick Jones, an analyst for a private firm that subcontracted for the DefenseDepartment, decided that he had better check the problem personally in hisown spare time. Until now, his last few years had been spent working on scenariosto determine the effect Y2K would have on the military computers. Programmershad been working on mission critical software for the last four years to makecertain that there would be no critical failures that would affect our country'sability to use its nuclear and technological arsenals to defend itself incase of a foreign attack. He had no idea whether or not the military hadmade any in depth studies into the effects Y2K would have on the civilianmarkets, nor the extent that they had taken civilian disruptions into theirscenario planning. His assigned missions were totally confined to highlyclassified mission critical software, intelligence, and communications problems.

Thirty to forty percent of the military computers were already Y2K compliantand had been thoroughly tested. The best estimates were that another twentyto twenty five percent would be compliant in time, and they were being setup so that they could handle all of the critical traffic and controls in everyessential area of military operations. The remaining military computers wouldbe taken off line in order to keep them from interfering with the runningof the computers which could be trusted to produce reliable data and communications. As computers could be made reliable and compliant, they would be reintroducedinto the military net. Until then, they would still be used to do word procesing,maintain personnel records, and perform other tasks which would not causeany date conflict problems with their existing software.

After some initial investigations, Rick was really amazed at the lack of compliancein the civilian sector. Not only were at least seventy to eighty percentof civilian systems vulnerable to Y2K problems, but most of the civilian corporationswere not taking any real steps to correct the problems before they could occurand interrupt business. In fact, many had not even had their programmersrun any tests to determine what problems could occur, how bad the problemswould be, what could be done to correct them in time, or what effects theproblems would have on other systems in specific and the population in general.

Since his own project had been completed, and the necessary corrective actionswere being taken, Rick decided to ask his supervisor if he could check thesituation out more thoroughly. At first, his boss was not happy with theidea, since the study would have to come out of his budget and was not specificallycovered under any of his existing contracts with the military. Finally, hedecided to gamble that the company could get paid for the research when Rickshowed him his preliminary findings and pointed out that major civilian disruptionswould cause widespread disaster and panic which could not only affect militaryoperations, but could even require widespread military intervention to maintainpeace, enforce martial law, and provide disaster and humanitarian relief tothe citizens in affected areas.

Rick was assigned two assistant researchers on the project and told to reportevery two weeks with any important findings or preliminary assessments available. By the end of the first month, his boss put Rick in charge of a full investigationand scenario assessment and gave him a full team to investigate the situation. He now had an additional four analysts and twelve assistant researchers workingon the problem.

Rick divided the researchers and analysts into teams after examining theirfiles to determine the relative strengths of each individual. There wouldbe five teams, including his own, and there would be a group meeting oncea week to allow the five groups to get together, report their current findings,discuss any ideas they had, and allow them to incorporate the new data fromother teams into their own research so that they could determine how outsidefactors could influence events in their own area of concern.

Danielle Watson was an M.D. with experience in disaster relief, epidemiology,and communicable diseases. Rick gave her the task of detailing the effectsof computer crashes and other foreseeable problems on the health care industryand on the health of&127; the general population. Her three assistants were familiarwith everything from emergency first aid, battlefield surgery and triage,and large epidemics in underdeveloped countries to modern medical practicesand research involving Biological Level 4 containment techniques in both researchfacilities and in the jungle.

John Jameson was an engineer with experience in construction, operating largefacilities and utility plants, and demolitions. Rick put him in charge ofutility evaluation. He was to examine and troubleshoot problems in electricpower, natural gas, and water and sanitation. His two assistants were trainedin everything from drilling gas and water wells to running hydroelectric ornuclear power plants. They were familiar with modern systems and their predecessorsfor the last thirty years.

Kristin Rogers was a financial analyst with experience in everything fromretail sales networks to banking and stock market operations. Her goal wasto determine what effects would occur, the extent of their interactions, andhow they would affect the ability of the public to lead a normal lifestyle. Her three assistants were able to handle anything from accounting, banking,and the stock market to groceries, retail sales, and fast food.

Steve Brown was a technology analyst, specializing in communications and deliverysystems. Rick put him in charge of analysis of the communications and transportationindustries. His two assistants were up to date on everything from broadcastvideo, radio, and print media to shipping by sea, rail, air, and trucking. They were charged with the task of figuring how, when, and where problemscould or would occur and deciding what the best course of dealing with thoseproblems would be.

Rick left his first two assistants working on collecting general data foranalysis by the groups and to work on any special requests for specific informationwhich might require extra attention. He took charge of the last group, whoseresponsibility was to evaluate security problems as well as other generalconcerns not specifically covered by the other research groups. His two assistantswere experienced in military and civilian law enforcement, disaster relief,martial law in civilian disasters, and a wide range of areas including camping,alternative energy sources, survival techniques, homesteading, and subsistenceliving under primitive conditions with little preparation and training.

Rick felt confident that they could quickly cover the problem and work outa set of initial scenarios based on probable, worst case, and best case situations. By the first group meeting, everyone was collecting and organizing data andrunning into no problems with access or finding what they required to do theiranalysis. The second meeting went smoothly, with few suggestions as to whatother groups might want to do regarding investigating specific problems forinteractions with other fields.

After the third meeting, Rick called his boss, Dan McKenzie, informing himthat there was something important that they had to discuss immediately regardinghis current project. Since Rick was so upset, they met the next morning inDan's office.

Rick explained the situation regarding the current status of his project. The preliminary reports were not good, indicating a high level of interactionbetween the different areas of concern at all levels. Before getting someoneto try to do a computer simulation, he wanted to bring in someone he knewwho had specific talents they might find useful in working up enough of anoverall picture to develop a basic computer simulation. The person he wantedwasn't into computer simulations, but was a generalist with a gift for visualizingand describing not only the whole picture, but also at picking out hiddeninteractions at levels often overlooked by specialists with less ability torecognize how things related indirectly to their field might affect factorsthey are considering.

Dan could see that there was enough preliminary data and analysis to indicatethat he wanted his company to finance this project regardless of the abilityto sell the results to the military. If the preliminary reports were anywherenear correct, the results were necessary even if they had to give them tothe private sector to avert a national disaster. Dan told Rick that therewould be no problem with getting another analyst, and asked who he had inmind.

Rick said, 'That's the problem. The guy I have in mind doesn't have muchin the way of credentials and experience, and he has no security clearancewith the government.'

Dan said, 'That could complicate matters, especially if we want to keep everythingup to speed on the project. What makes you think that this guy is so specialthat we can't find someone else to do what he can, someone who has the experienceand the clearance?'

Rick said, 'I met him years ago, and he always impressed me because he didn'tcare about what anyone thought about him as long as he was comfortable withhis own evaluation of himself and his actions. He told everyone exactly whathe thought and didn't care if they didn't share his opinions. He didn't trustthe government because of corruption and politics, and wanted nothing to dowith working for them when they couldn't even do the basic job that had beengiven to them by the people without doing a better job of screwing up theprivate lives of the citizens than they did of protecting the borders anddelivering the mail.'

Dan said, 'He sounds like quite a radical, or some kind of loose cannon. We may not be able to get this guy a security clearance. Can we do the jobwithout him?'

Rick said, 'Yes, we can, but it won't be as accurate, and it may take us anextra three months to complete.'

Dan said, 'He's that good?'

Rick said, 'I think so. He analyzes without losing the trees for the forest,and he isn't afraid to admit when he is wrong. If he doesn't factor somethinginto his analysis and you ask him about it, he will tell you if he just didn'tconsider it or if he ignored it because he didn't think that it was importantenough to affect the outcome. Then he will explain why he thinks it is negligibleor what he considers important enough to negate the effects of the variable. You know how much time and money we can save by simplifying our computersims and their algorithms without affecting the outcome.'

Dan said, 'We could not only save the time and money, but the simpler thealgorithms, the more accuraate our predictions would be. What are this guy'squalifications?'

Rick said, 'He's done scientific research. Life sciences, not sociology orpsychology, and he knows how to solve problems. He knows biomedical sciences,and understands how they interact with society. He has his graduate degree,and he has enough college courses to have three different MS degrees in biologyand biochemistry.'

Dan said, 'What areas of specialization did he cover?'

Rick said, 'Physiology, molecular genetics, molecular biology, immunology,virology, biochemistry, and microbiology.'

Dan said, 'Is that all?'

Rick said, 'He knows war and warfare, and does wargaming. He understandsbiological and chemical warfare strategy and tactics, and could probably designand build delivery systems that did not require anything in the way of hightech to allow a terrorist to get enough casualties to get into the news andget his grievances heard and considered seriously. He knows enough chemistryto design and build improvised munitions and bombs. He's good at strategyand tactics. He knows how to spot weaknesses within a system, and used todevelop gaming tactics to simulate guerrilla warfare and counterinsurgencystrategy for fun. He knows how to evaluate security and other precautions,and how to check their effectiveness. He has a working knowledge of the interactionsof culture, society, and individuals with government, politics, finance, education,and a host of other variables. He understands survival, survivalism, selfsufficiency, homesteading, living off the land, and a host of other thingsthat he finds interesting.'

Dan said, 'OK. I'm convinced that you believe he is qualified. Before Imake a decision, I want to meet him. What's this guy's name?'

Rick said, 'I'll see if I can get him here by tomorrow as a personal favor. His name is Lee Braun, but he only lets anybody call him Lee.'

Dan said, 'I can live with an individualist. I'm used to that with thesescientific types.'

Rick said, 'You don't understand one thing. IF I can get him to come here,he won't be coming to beg us to hire him because he doesn't need the workand he won't want to work with us if there is a chance of having to work undergovernment control. Believe me, he'll figure out if there is a chance ofcoming under direct government control before either we or the governmenthave put the facts together. If you decide that I am correct and that weneed him on this project, WE will have to convince him to stay and work forus, and he will probably dictate certain conditions and terms to be met beforehe will even consider taking the job.'

Dan said, 'I'm not sure that I like the sound of that.'

Rick said, 'You know how you have to bend the rules when you hire a privatecontractor for outside work, even when you have to have him working insideyour facility for security or other reasons.'

Dan said, 'OK, I'm convinced, and I'll be flexible if I like what I see. Set up the meeting. I'll make sure that my secretary knows that when youcall, you will tell her when and where the meeting will be and she will haveto move or cancel whatever is required to accomodate the meeting.'

Rick said, 'Thanks, Dan. You won't regret this.'

Dan said, 'I hope not, but I am curious to meet someone who made that muchof an impression on you.'

Rick said, 'I'll call him right away. As soon as I know, I'll get in touchwith your secretary and set everything up. Sorry to run, Dan, but if I canconvince him to come, he may be here by late tonight.'

Chapter 2

I answered the phone, expecting it to be a wrong number or some stupid telemarketertrying to rip me off. Very few people called, especially during the earlymorning. My wife likes to stay up late at night, so we usually sleep lateto compensate.

'Hello.'

'Hey you lazy bag of bones, sit up and drag your lazy butt out of bed. Ineed to talk to you about something important. It has to do with a projectI'm working on. I need you to come down here for a day or two to help outwith a problem. I'll get my boss to pay you for the trip and your time soyour wife doesn't miss work without pay.'

I said, 'Rick, what the hell are you talking about?'

Rick said, 'I need you to come down here for a meeting to help me with a problemwe are having on a research project. I know you won't fly, so have your wifecome with you and drive down here. It's important.'

I said, 'Just how important is this, really?'

Rick said, 'Important enough for me to call you when I know that you wereprobably still asleep. Important enough that I can't discuss the detailsover the phone. Important enough for me to ask you to do this as a personalfavor to me, and that I'm willing to concede that I will really owe you bigtime if you do come, and even more if you are willing to help solve the problem.'

I said, 'It's that big a deal to you?'

Rick said, 'Yes, buddy, it's that big a deal to me, and to the company I workfor. I think that it could become that big a deal to you, too. I think thatyou will find solving the problem to be a real challenge.'

I said, 'OK. Are you still at the R and D place in Tennessee?'

Rick said, 'Yes. I'll get things set up so that you can stay with me so wewon't have to worry about getting someplace to let you keep your cats withyou. I'll also get the local sheriff to issue permits for you and your wifeso you won't have any problems locally with carrying a concealed weapon. I can have it all set up by tonight. Is that too soon?'

I said, 'We can be there in about eight hours if it's that important. We'llpull some cash, grab our gear, load the cats, and be there by tonight. Havesupper waiting, and we'll talk over old times and get caught up tonight. We can talk about the problem tomorrow after we get a good night's sleep andyou give me some background details.'

Rick said, 'Thanks, Lee. I mean it. I'll have the steaks ready, and lotsof salad and baked potatoes with fixings in case your wife doesn't feel likemeat tonight. And don't worry, I'll have lots of hot peppers for your rice. Have a nice, safe drive down.'

After hanging up, I woke Naomi up and told her about Rick's call and the emergencytrip to see him. We got things worked out for a few days emergency leavewith her boss, and got ready for the trip. In an hour, we were on the road. We had enough clothes for about a week, camping and survival gear, some foodand drinks, and the cats in a carrier. Our house was locked and would belooked after by our neighbors, so we weren't worried about anything happeningto it.

About seven that evening, we pulled into Rick's drive. It was just over eighthours since he had called that morning. Rick helped us unload the car andmove our stuff into his guest room. After cleaning up, we came out to talkto Rick and eat dinner.

We spent several hours talking and getting caught up on what had happenedsince we last saw each other. Rick told me that he couldn't even tell mewhat the project was about until the meeting set up for seven in the morning. Around eleven, we all went to bed.

We were at the entrance to the R and D place where Rick worked before sevenin the morning. The guard checked the entire car, and didn't want to letme onto the premises armed until Rick showed him my gun permit and authorizationto carry a weapon on the premises signed by the president of the corporation. After verifying the authorization, the guard let us pass.

Rick tried to apologize for the delay, but I told him not to worry. At leastI knew that the physical security wasn't being totally ignored just becausethey had a lot of high tech security to help protect the premises.

After entering the building, we were shown into the conference room next tothe president's office. Rick introduced me to Dan McKenzie, who immediatelystarted our meeting.

Dan said, 'So, what do you think of our little facility? Not only is it niceto be outside of the city for aesthetic purposes, but it greatly enhancesour privacy and our ability to keep the place secure.'

I said, 'It's nice. It is beautiful, and it is secluded. I suppose thatsecurity is adequate for your purposes, but I wouldn't conclude that withoutknowing how secure you really needed it to be for your work.'

Dan said, 'What do you mean? We have the best state of the art security systemsand we still retain physical security measures. What could possibly be doneto make our facility more secure?'

I said, 'If you think your security systems are perfect, or as perfect asyou can make them, you are wrong. The gate guard stopped us because I hada gun. After being shown a permit and authorization to carry it on your premises,he called to verify the authorization. When it was confirmed, he allowedus to proceed.'

Dan said, 'Yes, I know. I told him to allow you to proceed.'

I said, 'Did you ask him if I was who I claimed, or provide a physical descriptionof me?'

Dan said, 'No, of course not. I didn't know what you looked like until Imet you a few minutes ago. Why?'

I said, 'Because the guard didn't know me either. He didn't bother to checkmy ID against the permits because you gave him authorization to let us proceedwithout checking identity further. Also, when we went through the metal detectorinside the main building, the guard didn't stop us. I can only assume thatone of three things happened, as I was still armed. One, the metal detectorwas not on, so my gun did not set it off. Two, the metal detector was on,but the guard did not pay attention to the alarm or had it turned off whenI went through. Three, the gate guard called the inside guard and told himthat I was authorized to be armed, so he didn't scan me or he didn't let thealarm go off when I went through.'

Dan said, 'I'm impressed. I'm also somewhat irritated that our security failedin this case, but I bear at least partial responsibility for that.'

I said, 'I didn't come here to impress you. I came as a favor to Rick. I'mstill not sure why he wanted me to come, but I am certain that it was notto evaluate or overhaul your security systems. Rick knows that I don't dothat.'

Dan said, 'You haven't told him anything about why we wanted him to come,Rick?'

Rick said, 'No. I couldn't discuss it over the phone, and I wanted you todecide how much you wanted us to tell him because of security reasons. Also,it won't take him long to do a preliminary evaluation of the situation.'

Dan said, 'OK. Lee, what do you know about Y2K?'

I said, 'The so-called 'end of the millenium' according to most people andthe press. They seem to think that the next millenium begins on January 1,2000 instead of one year later.'

Dan seemed to be interested in what I was saying, but Rick interrupted himbefore he could start questioning me. He said, 'Lee, he means the Y2K bug.'

I said, 'The Y2K bug is a flaw in computer program design in which many applicationsuse a two digit code for the date. Early programmers thought that their workwould be outdated and completely replaced within ten years, so they didn'tbother to make their programs work on a four digit date for time verification. When the programs were merely upgraded or modified instead of being replaced,they still didn't bother to change the date verification. Now, many applicationsand computers that make calculations based on the date are unable to handleany date after December 31, 1999 without crashing the system or producinggarbage instead of useful results in their computations based on date.'

Dan said, 'Is that all?'

I said, 'No. Although much of the problem can be attributed directly to severalmajor software companies and their unwillingness to clean up their softwareand solve known problems as long as there were not a lot of specific complaintswhich could affect their sales, the problem was propagated industry wide byprogrammers who wanted to streamline and economize by saving a few keystrokes.'

Dan said, 'That's a nice history lecture. Concise. But it doesn't explainwhat there is that would be considered a problem, or how it would affect me.'

I said, 'Would you like the long version or the short version?'

Rick said, 'Give him the short version, with enough details to convince himthat the problem will affect his personal and business life.'

Dan said, 'How much time would you need to think about this to give me someidea of how important this problem would be to me, personally?'

I said, 'None. I am ready to give you the short version. The worst casescenario, or the best?'

Rick said, 'Give him the best case scenario first.'

I said, 'The BEST case scenario would be that Y2K wouldn't be a problem atall. No computer problems would occur, and life would go on just like normal. But that is not going to happen. We know this because of several things. Visa has already experienced a Y2K problem which caused them to have problemswith their credit card customers for six months. It took them that long tofix a problem in which their computers simply thought that a card with a year2000 expiration date was invalid because it had expired in 1900. Also, Prodigyhas already announced to their 240,000 internet customers that they will beout of business by October of 1999 because it was too expensive for them tomake their business and programs Y2K compliant so that they would not faceloss of business and possible lawsuits when their computers froze up or crasheddue to system errors related to the Y2K bug.'

Rick said, 'OK, Lee, tell him the best realistic case scenario based on whatyou know right now. When would problems start?'

I said, 'Problems will start before the end of October, 1999.'

Dan said, 'Don't you mean that they will start at the beginning of the year2000?'

I said, 'No. They will start when the government and many major corporationsbegin planning for the year 2000 fiscal year. Some of their programs forcalculating interest, penalties, and even payrolls will start occasionallycrashing because the dates do not give realistic numbers which can be usedfor their calculations.'

Dan said, 'But they will be forced to correct the problems.'

I said, 'Eventually. But first, there will be loss of data, loss of files,loss of work by employees whose job can't be done until the computer glitchesare fixed, and loss of profits by the affected companies. Some of the payrolldepartments may have to calculate and type out their checks by hand, and thosewho receive direct deposits or debits may have their transfers messed up. This could also affect their credit ratings and trigger a wave of lawsuitsagainst the people who filed false credit reports because they did not confirmthe results of their computer printouts before filing the reports even thoughthey knew there were some problems with the results of the printouts.'

Dan said, 'OK. That could all be a hassle, and an expensive pain in the assto fix. But it is not life threatening or anything that would affect my lifestylein a major way.'

I said, 'As long as the credit card companies did not temporarily shut downbecause they couldn't keep track of purchases and charge interest accordingly,it might not. But what happens at one second after midnight of December 31st,when the year 2000 begins?'

Dan said, 'What do you mean?'

I said, 'The best realistic estimate is that at least thirty to forty percentof American businesses will experience some computer failures and have problemswith their cash flow due to computer errors. They will have slower orderingand billing, will have to pay more to do their books by hand, and will beunable to compete with those who have no problems with their systems. Theirprofit margins will fall, their customers will go to someone who isn't havingcomputer trouble, and they will lose even more business. Some of these 'businesses'will be banks, whose customers will have problems getting their checks acceptedand may even have trouble getting their money out of the bank because thebank will close if there is a run on the bank. People will have their financialassets frozen until the bank can get enough records sorted to verify thatthe money is indeed due them.'

Dan said, 'That could affect me.'

I said, 'The traffic signals could malfunction, resulting in numerous wreckson one of the worst nights of the year for drunk drivers. This could happeneither as a result of computer malfunctions at traffic control or becauseof power outages.'

Dan said, 'Why would there be any power outages?'

I said, 'Because the computers which control the electric companies acrossAmerica are already known to have some susceptibility to Y2K bugs, and theindustry has not been keeping up on their efforts to correct the problemsbefore they occur and affect power service. Most of the switches betweendifferent regions have been converted to computer control, and many are notcentrally located now. If the computers in one area fail, the switches willprobably lock open, causing a cascade of failures across the country. Someareas may be unaffected by computer failures, but even some of them will havepower outages because of transformers being blown out by the failures in areasaround them.'

Dan said, 'So how long would the power be out?'

I said, 'In some areas, about four days to a week. In others, two weeks orso before they could replace enough transformers and switches to restore power.'

Dan said, 'That's not too bad.'

I said, 'But they still haven't fixed the computer problem which caused thepower outage in the first place. The problems will be recurrent unless thesource is fixed.'

Dan said, 'But four days to a week without power isn't too long for peopleto survive.'

I said, 'The power outage will occur in January, during one of the coldesttimes of the year. Many homes are now totally electric, so they will haveno heat and no way to cook food. The pipes in the homes that get too coldwill burst, causing water damage if the people do not turn their water off.'

Dan interrupted, saying, 'But people could leave their water running to keeptheir pipes from freezing. And they could go to homes which have heat fromgas furnaces to keep warm.'

I said, 'In a widespread, total blackout, the water treatment facilities willhave to be shut down. Also, without electricity for their pumps to maintainwater pressure, you can't force water through the pipes to the homes. Havingso much pressure bled off at the same time by running open taps would onlydecrease the time before you ran out of drinkable water. And very few homeswould have the ability to heat and cook. Most gas furnaces require a fanto force the hot air through the ducts and do not work efficiently or at allduring a power outage. Many of the new gas ranges have electric ignitions. Although some of them can be lit with a match in the event of a power outage,some of the newer models don't function without electricity.'

Dan said, 'But people could go to the store for food and water, or they couldeat out at restaurants.'

I said, 'The supply of food at all of the grocery stores in any city in Americais enough to stock the shelves for three days. In the event that there isa local water shortage, all of the liquids inside a store, including bottledwater and soft drinks, is not enough to provide enough fluids to sustain lifefor everyone in the city for even three days. Besides, none of the storeswill be open because they can't run their registers or lights.'

Dan said, 'But there is disaster relief. The Red Cross and the National Guardwill be called upon to help out.'

I said, 'Who do they help out? You have at least thirty five entire stateswith no power anywhere. The other fifteen states have some areas with powerand some areas with no power. The working facilities can only provide somuch extra water for other areas before they start to force their own citizensinto rationing. And how do you transport it to other areas when there areno open gas stations in the affected areas because they don't have electricityto pump the gas? And who delivers it when the National Guard fails to showup? Few radio or broadcast stations will have the power to stay on the airfor long, and many people won't use battery operated radios for long. Manyof the Guardsmen will refuse to report because they won't leave their familiesunprotected.'

Dan said, 'But why should they be so worried about their families?'

I said, 'In a widespread power outage, the stores have no power, and evenbattery alarm systems will soon fail during an extended power outage. Thecriminals will use the opportunity to break in and loot stores, stealing whateverthey can. They will also break into homes they think are easy targets becausethey know that the police will be swamped, and many homes will have no workingphone. If the stores are not open, many of them will be looted by normallylaw-abiding citizens who are simply trying to get enough food and water tosurvive.'

'All of the new high tech phones and answering machines that require electricitywill not work. Like the fancy phone on your desk, Dan. Cell phones willbe useless because of the number of people trying to use them and becausethe providers have systems which are highly dependent upon computers and electricity. It's hard to get a computer to work without electricity, even if it is fullyY2K compliant.'

Dan said, 'Is there anything else?'

I said, 'In many places, especially those with extended blackouts, there willbe rioting, looting, and fires. The fire departments will be unable to containmany fires because of the lack of water pressure, and property damage willsoar. Many of the rioters will be trying to simply find food and water.'

Rick said, 'Tell him about the effects on people.'

I said, 'People, other than infants and small children, will not starve todeath in this time frame. Some people will die of thirst or dehydration. The hospitals will be overflowing with sick and injured people from cold,exposure, dehydration, gunshot wounds, fires, beatings, stabbings, and otherhuman related injuries. After a week, they will start to see people who havediseases associated with third world countries. There will be dysentery,cholera, and other diseases associated with a lack of proper sanitation facilitiesand clean drinking water.'

Dan said, 'So, are there solutions to these problems?'

I said, 'Some of the problems can be decreased in scope, but not eliminatedbecause they depend in part upon human nature and in part upon the abilityor willingness of the people to prepare for the disaster and eliminate certainhazards. Some of them can't be changed at all unless certain companies orindividuals are willing to prepare and take the recommended measures to minimizethe problems.'

Dan said, 'So this is the best case scenario, according to you? What is theworst case scenario you can see occurring as a result of this problem?'

I said, 'The complete and total collapse of American society as we know it,with the potential loss of at least thirty to fifty percent of the populationof this country.'

Chapter 3

Rick blanched and stared at me like he was in shock.

Dan sat down at the conference table. He looked at me like I was the prophetof Doom, which I guess I had become as far as he was concerned. He said,'My God, that would be impossible. You're talking about 100 to 150 millionpeople dying in America over a short period of time. That's just not possible.'

I said, 'The worst case scenario is a total collapse of our computer systemswhich can't be fixed for months to years. No bank records, no money, no peoplewilling to work because their job doesn't provide for their survival. Mostpeople in this country are in debt, and live from paycheck to paycheck. Thosewith some savings or other paper investments will have no way to get theirmoney in cash, and will suffer huge losses on the assets they manage to convertto cash. Even the banks have only a fraction of their total assets availableas cash at any one time.'

'There will be no way to track convicted felons, no way to ship food efficientlyover long distances, no way to purify vast amounts of water for huge cities,widespread epidemics and diseases, limited medical support, limited medicalsupplies, limited medicine, limited travel. What starvation and disease,the elements, or neglect doesn't do, the criminal element our society hascreated and nurtured will make up the difference, or human nature will. ItCAN happen here.'

Rick said, 'We need to take a break. Let's go to the cafeteria and get somecoffee and something to eat. We need a change of scenery, and we can takesome time to think things over and talk a few things out.'

Dan said, 'Right. Have my secretary cancel everything on the schedule today. Get in touch with your entire group and have them meet us here at noon tobegin a meeting to go over everything we decide on. We'll have lunch sentin if any of them have any appetite left after they talk to Lee about thebig picture he sees. Maybe some of their data will let us reevaluate andget results more to our liking.'

Rick said, 'Lee, I think you know why I asked you to come down here. UnlessDan is unconvinced by your analysis, we would like you to come to work forus here. Not permanently, but long enough to help us work through our analysisand work up some possible solutions.'

I said, 'I'll be willing to consider your offer, depending on what we canwork out. I am willing to at least continue and meet with your analysis teamand give them my opinions and interpretations. Let's go eat. Dan may notbe hungry right now because of the shock, but I've had plenty of time to getused to the possibility of the near future, and you'll also need your strengthif you want to function. Besides, if you weren't afraid that the resultswere heading toward what I just predicted, you wouldn't have bothered tryingto get me to come down here, so it can't be a complete shock to you.'

Rick said, 'You're right. It wasn't a complete shock, but I still didn'texpect anyone to be able to stand there with no emotion and talk about thepossibility of over 100 million people dying in this country alone. Withthose kinds of losses, the entire population of the planet could be cut inhalf.'

I said, 'Not directly, but it could be in five or ten years. Even if allof the third world countries lost all of their foreign aid and health caresupport from outside sources, they wouldn't lose that much of their populationdue to starvation and health problems. But eventually all of the overcrowdedcountries would manage to kill off enough of their 'undesirables' to makea difference in the population in their country and their ability to supportit themselves.'

Dan said, 'You have a low opinion of humanity, Lee.'

I said, 'No, I have a high opinion of humanity, or at least the potentialfor humanity. I simply have a realistic opinion of human nature and the abilityof man to survive almost any situation. Not all men will survive, but mankindwill. The survivors are those who are tough enough mentally, physically,and spiritually to survive the situations they encounter in life. Some chanceis also involved. Those who are smart enough to foresee possible danger preparefor it. They survive by avoiding danger, or by preparing themselves to decreasethe effects of chance and increase the likelihood that they will survive.'

Dan said, 'That sounds almost like survival of the fittest.'

I said, 'To an extent, it is. But, some will help others to survive who wouldnot otherwise be able to. The limiting factor in these cases is resources. If there are enough resources, some of those less fit will be taken careof and will survive. Unless, of course, the person who controls those resourcesrefuses to share them. In some cases, this is justifiable and in others itis not. But even if resources are more than sufficient for survival, it isstill up to those who control them to decide if they want to share their excessand who they are willing to share the excess with.'

Dan said, 'That does not sound nice, and it almost sounds like you supportthe idea that certain people should be allowed to survive while others shouldnot.'

I said, 'It isn't nice, and there are people that I believe should not beallowed to survive, but we don't need to go into that now. Just considerthat you have resources which could support 100 people if you stretch them,but that would leave you with no excess, and would put everyone on a subsistencelevel of existence. Eventually the bad diet and hard work will cause somepeople to die, allowing the others to survive under slightly better conditionsas long as they have not had decreased productivity.'

Dan said, 'OK, I'll concede that you have to allocate resources to allow enoughproductivity to remain viable as a culture or group to ensure long term survival.'

I said, 'But how much do you allocate? You might want to keep 80 people alivewhile I might decide that 60 people is more realistic. If there is a cropfailure or some other disaster that affects food production, I would be provencorrect because more of my group would survive and still be productive. Ifthere is some epidemic or disease, or some kind of war that would kill about50 people in each group, you would be proven correct because your group wouldhave the size and genetic diversity to allow it to survive and be productive.'

Rick said, 'So you have to plan for what you can survive or avoid, and allocateall of the available resources you can accumulate accordingly.'

I said, 'Correct. If you have to have an army to survive, you can't havean army where civilians support you but only one soldier in ten is trainedto fight and do the job they are supporting the army for. A volunteer militiahas greater numbers of fighters with less training, but it supports itself. The Israeli army supports itself because everyone is part of the army. Onlya small percentage is on active duty at any time, and the rest work and trainin rotating groups throughout their lifetime. Allocation of resources.'

Dan said, 'I agree with the general point, but what does this have to do withthe Y2K problem and how we can solve it?'

I said, 'We can't solve it. The government and the industries have knownabout the problem for years and have stalled until the only viable solution,rewriting the programs and making them functional, is now not an option becausethere is not enough time to correct everything. They didn't want to do itbecause they didn't want to allocate the resources necessary. Whatever happenswill be as a direct result of their inaction.'

Rick said, 'So we can't solve the problem. We can determine how much of aproblem there will actually be. We have the resources to estimate the problemwell enough to plan for it, don't we?'

Dan said, 'Yes. We can plan for it, and we can alert the media and make surethat everyone has the chance to plan and make preparations before everythinghappens. That will minimize the problems regardless of the amount of thingswhich actually do go wrong, won't it?'

I said, 'No, it won't. It will make you a target for the government, andwill decrease your own likelihood of survival.'

Rick said, 'What do you mean?'

Dan said, 'Yes. Explain to us what you do mean. You are beginning to soundlike some paranoid anti-government conspiracy theory nut.'

I said, 'OK. In the interest of your enlightenment, I will explain. Severalyears ago, the government passed laws making it illegal for the citizens ofthis country to privately stockpile food so they would be self-sufficientin times of disaster. The government of this, a free country, decided thatanyone who wanted to store enough food to survive one or more years in timeof disaster or national emergency could be prosecuted for the crime of spendingtheir personal money on non-regulated items and hoarding them. This alsogives FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, a legal ground for thelaw they passed which allows FEMA, in time of declared national emergencyor disaster, to confiscate without court proceedings or compensation, anyand all materials or resources which they consider to be necessary for thesurvival of those in the affected area and to distribute the resources asthey see fit.'

Dan said, 'I don't understand what you are implying.'

I said, 'The government has decided that it wants people to be dependent uponthe government for their very survival, especially in time of disaster ornational emergency. They have the right to arrest you for trying to stockpilefood or emergency supplies with your own money, even though you bought thefood legally, paid all your taxes, and did nothing wrong. They also havethe right to take your supplies away from you if they find them during a disasterand redistribute them as they see fit. You will not only not receive compensation,but you may not survive if the government does not consider you a high enoughpriority to receive enough of your own personal property to allow you to survive. Those who resist confiscation of their property can be killed under martiallaw.'

Dan said, 'No. That can't be right. The government wouldn't do that. Welive in a free society, where the people rule and the government serves thepeople.'

Rick said, 'I'm afraid he is right. Under martial law and emergency powers,the Constitution is suspended, and the government can do anything it wantsto make sure that the government and those they have designated as a priorityfor survival do indeed survive, no matter how many other people that directlyor indirectly condemns to death. And under martial law, even those who arethought to be breaking the law are sometimes killed even when they have donenothing illegal or to resist military authority. Looters have been shot onsight at disaster relief areas in America for more than twenty years. Itisn't that common, but the media never really covers it, so you don't hearmuch about it.'

Dan said, 'Lee, I'm convinced that we have to do something, but I admit thatmy initial reaction was wrong. Before we go any further, I need you to explainexactly what you meant when you said that there were people you thought shoulddefinitely not be allowed to survive, especially when allocation of resourceshad to be planned to allow for some to survive.'

I said, 'I'm not politically correct. Punks and murderers should be executed. Anyone who is proud of spending their whole life causing pain and sufferingto innocent people by robbing and committing various violent crimes as oftenas possible is only slightly more responsible for their actions than thosewho protect these animals and make sure that society is not protected fromthem.'

'If you believe that it is inhuman to kill or imprison scum who rape, torture,murder, and molest children for fun, then you should be required to providehousing for them and accept responsibility for their future actions. If youaren't willing to take their place and accept their punishment, then shutup and let the rest of us protect ourselves from these animals. If you takethem in and they kill you and your family, rest assured that we will obeythe laws of God and punish them for their crimes.'

'Any society that passes laws which conflict with the laws of God is askingfor trouble. No society has the right to deny its law-abiding citizens theright to protect their own life, the life of a loved one, or their propertyfrom someone who does not obey the laws and common dictates of that society. When any society values the life or the rights of those who are criminals,or those who seek to destroy that society, over the life or rights of itslaw-abiding, productive citizens, that society is destined to be destroyedfrom within or without. And I fully believe that its destruction is morallyand ethically right and just. Does that make my position clear enough?'

Dan said, 'I believe that you have made yourself perfectly clear, and I canlive with your answer and your reasoning.'

Rick said, 'I told you that he was opinionated. I also told you that he wasthe man for the job. What do you think of him now?'

Dan said, 'I never thought that I'd meet a man that I considered dangerousjust to be around, but I have now. He has his beliefs and is willing to notonly support them regardless of the cost, but he is willing to express themto others without becoming violent if you don't agree with him. He listensto your opinion, and rejects it only if there is a good reason instead ofrejecting it simply because it conflicts with his own opinion. I think hecan give us the edge on developing our scenarios and working out the bestways to allocate our resources for survival. Not only will we have a betterchance of surviving, but we may still be able to help others increase theirown chances of surviving and even thriving during the coming new year. Atleast we can make a lot of people more comfortable by letting them know whatto expect so they can make their own plans and take appropriate precautions.'

Rick said, 'So, what is our next step?'

Dan said, 'Let's go to the meeting and introduce Lee to the rest of the team. We have a lot of work to do, and we need to get started as soon as possibleso that we can be prepared before time runs out.'

Chapter 4

When we arrived back at the conference room, it was only about 11:30, butthe room was already full. All of the group was early, clearly anticipatingsomething important because of the nature of the project and the speed withwhich this special meeting was scheduled. I was introduced to the team andmet them all inside of five minutes. I managed to remember the first namesof the four other group leaders on Rick's project, what they did, and thenames of about three or four of the assistant researchers. Not bad, consideringthe difficulties I normally have remembering names instead of faces.

Dan brought the meeting to order and Rick summarized our earlier meeting andour subsequent discussion. Several of the analysts looked shocked at thepredictions based on my best case scenario, but they didn't interrupt Rickto dispute them right away.

After Rick finished speaking, Danielle said, 'I understand all of your predictionsfor your best case scenario, and I know that you didn't go into details concerningcosts, death tolls, etc. because you were only working from generalized data. Can you explain why you decided to give numbers on your worst case scenario,and why you chose those particular numbers. My current data shows you tobe high by at least one or two orders of magnitude. How did you arrive atyour conclusion?'

I said, 'I chose those numbers because they seemed to be about right workingfrom all the parameters involved in choosing a worst case scenario. Withintwo to five years of total collapse, those should be the expected casualties.'

Danielle said, 'But disease won't kill nearly that many people, and I can'tsee anything causing a war on a large enough scale to justify stating thatthirty to fifty percent of the American population could be dead in that timescale.'

I said, 'I didn't say that disease would kill that many people, although diseasewould kill many more people than you currently expect in a worst case scenarioif you factor in certain outside influences.'

Danielle said, 'Such as?'

I said, 'Have you factored in lack of sanitation, bad water, and unburiedbodies into your calculations on a long term scale?'

Danielle said, 'After the first three months, they should become minimal influences.'

I said, 'Not if power is not reestablished and trained personnel don't magicallyappear to run the water treatment and sewage plants. I can make water safefor myself and a few others, and can handle small scale sewage problems, butI can't operate one of those plants. Can you?'

Danielle conferred with one of her assistants for a minute, then conferredwith one of the specialists on John's engineering team. She said, 'OK, I'lladmit that we didn't think about the startup time considering repair of theplants and training new personnel to run them. It seems that water and sanitationcould be problems for at least two years when we start to rebuild the cities. But why do you seem to think that disease will be such a killer when we havemodern facilities for treatment?'

I said, 'Because there will be no existing infrastructure to support thosemodern facilities. You may be able to generate the electricity required bythe hospital, but you will no longer be able to count on regular shipmentsof medical supplies, and you will have to worry about the quality of the medicalsupplies you do receive. Do you know what plants will cure certain diseases?'

Danielle said, 'No. I didn't study homeopathy or any of the natural healing. I deal in modern treatment of disease.'

I said, 'Then what is the survival rate for burn patients, gunshot wound victims,or other trauma patients lacking a medical facility with modern antibioticsand other preventive measures in abundance?'

Danielle said, 'Practically nonexistent. Without antibiotics, patients withsevere burns will almost always die.'

I said, 'And if antibiotics were almost unavailable, would you give your entiresupply for six months to a burn victim or save them to treat at least a hundredpatients with infections such as childbirth fever, strep throat, etc.?'

Danielle said, 'That would be standard triage. You always save your resourcesfor those who will almost certainly need them and be almost certain to survive. You don't waste them on someone who has almost no chance of survival. Butthere aren't that many burn victims in just a few years.'

I said, 'How many burn victims would you expect if the primary source of heatand cooking became an open fire or barbecue pit overnight in the middle ofwinter? If rioters and looters started fires in a major city and there wasno water pressure to allow the firefighters to contain or put out the blaze?'

Danielle went white as she realized the size and scope of the disaster thatI was talking about. She said, 'My God! You can't be serious, but you are. With firestorms that big, we'd never even be able to accurately estimatethe loss of life that could occur inside major cities inside this country. But the military and the National Guard could be called out to...'

Danielle stopped as she realized that with transportation and communicationproblems, not only would there be too few to do anything, they would almostalways be too late and unable to do anything if they did get there in timebecause they were not equipped or trained as firefighters and didn't havethe equipment and explosives to rapidly destroy large sections of cities toact as firebreaks even if they could get authorization to try.

I said, 'You can't do anything to stop it. Many of the fires would be deliberatelyset.'

Danielle said, 'Who would do such a thing? Why would they do something somonstrous?'

I said, 'In the worst case, those with grudges will use the opportunity tosettle scores. White supremacists will torch the cities, knowing that manyof those killed will be minorities. Some minorities will even start the firesthemselves. To cover up evidence of looting, to protest, or just becausethey have been conditioned to understand that when they burn their neighborhoodsdown, the government will put out the fires and come in and build them a nice,new neighborhood. They won't be able to accept that there won't be any governmentto come in and build them a new city this time.'

Kristin said, 'Are you saying that the government won't be able to survivethis crisis?'

I said, 'Not in a worst case scenario. At least not any government that bearsmore than a passing resemblance to the one you know right now. Think of thedamages, the loss of property, the loss of income, the damage to the entirefinancial infrastructure, and the loss of taxes. Think of the changes thatwould have to be made in our financial system to allow the people to survive,probably resulting in a barter economy.'

Kristin said, 'But the government has gold reserves.'

I said, 'What good is a bar of gold when you have a family to feed? You tookcare of yourself for two years, and now the government shows up and says thatthey are going to take all of your trees to build houses to move you backinto a city that they can't even get running. You need that wood as a renewableresource to allow your family to cook food and keep warm in the winter. Whatwould you say?'

Kristin said, 'But they could sieze resources for rebuilding for the commongood. And they could threaten to use the military to make you let them.'

I said, 'All governments operate by fear. It works well to keep a few dissidentsin line as long as the majority support the government. It does not workwell to make the majority serve the wishes of a few who have power over them. People tend to revolt and overthrow oppressive dictatorships, and the Americanswho survive two years in the worst case scenario will be well armed and willingto use those arms to defend themselves from a threat. What would you saywould be the odds of those tactics triggering a civil war among millions ofsurvivors who were forced to become self reliant to stay alive and who resenta government that failed them coming back when things are stabilizing andtrying to reassume control without the people deciding that they wanted toresume their old form of government?'

Rick said, 'Probably on the order of a ninety five percent chance of openarmed revolt by fifty percent or more of the survivors, with about thirtypercent of the rest supporting them as much as possible. The government wouldlast about three months at most, and the more force they used against thepeople, the more likely that all government officials and their families wouldbecome hunted fugitives after the war ended.'

John said, 'With some preparation and planning, some of the small plants couldbe maintained, especially in the smaller communities that have their own smallsanitation plants and water treatment facilities. But the major cities wouldhave to be written off or used for salvage and spare parts because there wouldn'tbe enough support and infrastructure to keep them operating.'

Steve said, 'There could even be some technology backlash, but communicationsin one form or another should survive. It doesn't take that much to keepa small radio station running as long as you don't need to broadcast for a1000 mile radius. And people will still appreciate some warning of majorstorms or weather patterns.'

Dan said, 'I can see that you have some things to work over regarding interactionsbetween the different areas before you can give me some more detailed assessments,so I'll leave you here to do some more brainstorming before you split up towork up each of your specific areas. It looks like we are going to have ahighly productive group. I'll leave you and your group to work on your project,Rick. And it's good to have you on board, Lee.'

It was past seven before the meeting broke up and Rick and I returned to hishome. We had covered a lot of material, going over general points for botha best case and a worst case scenario, and even discussing probable outcomesand ways to improve the ability of the general population to survive no matterwhat happened. By the time we finished, we were satisfied that we would beable to determine the scope of the problem more accurately than they had initiallyhoped, and might be able to make some suggestions to make things easier forthose who were in the affected areas and increase the overall survival rate.

When we got home, we discussed the day's events with Naomi, and she agreedthat it would be best if we stayed here and worked on the project. In fact,if the first few weeks went as expected, we would sell our place and movedown here to get closer to the group. She would quit her job and get busysetting us up to more completely prepare us for any eventuality.

As far as we were concerned, Y2K was a certainty, and was almost certain tobe a disaster as far as technological societies were concerned. Our onlyconcern was how big of a disaster to prepare for, and what specific preventivemeasures could we afford to take without risking everything if they happenedto prevent major problems from happening at the start of the new year.

We had less than a year to complete our preparations, and we could only lookforward to the next year being even more exciting and hectic. We knew thatno matter what, we would need food, medicine, books, wood, a woodstove, afireplace, water purification, sanitation, and whatever else it would taketo make us completely self sufficient before the end of the year. We hada lot to do, and a lot to learn. What we didn't have a lot of was time.

I told Rick to set up another meeting with Dan so we could discuss workingconditions and whether or not I would be willing to stay to work on the project. Rick knew that the request was coming, so he wasn't surprised. He told methat we had already been scheduled to meet with Dan again at seven the nextmorning.

Chapter 5

When we arrived at the gate, the guard was the same on as the previous day. He asked for my ID, verified that it was me, and then checked me againsthis list. I noticed that he didn't reconfirm my authorization to go armedbecause it was noted on his list. The security breach had been fixed at thisend, so I knew that they were listening and taking action when they thoughtthat something was important.

When we entered, the metal detector alarm went off, and the guard verifiedmy ID against his list before admitting us. I noticed that the interior andexterior doors both locked down when the alarm triggered. They looked likereinforced bullet resistant glass. The guard station was also separated fromus, so we couldn't overpower him and release the doors from the outside. I made a mental note to see if the interior door to the guard room was alsoautomatically locked down when the alarm was triggered.

After being cleared, we went up to Dan's office. He met me with a smile onhis face, and I could tell that he was sincerely looking forward to workingwith me. We went into his office and sat down. I noticed that his meetingchairs were arranged in a large, loose circle to allow a more relaxed setting.

Dan said, 'I assume that you wanted to discuss your terms of employment, sinceyou seemed interested enough in the project yesterday to at least considerit seriously. Am I correct, Lee?'

I liked his professional approach. Straight to the point without dividinghis attention with unrelated details like coffee or other refreshments, whichwere laid out on the table and clearly available to anyone who wanted them.

I said, 'I find the project to be somewhat stimulating, but I would need todiscuss project parameters in some detail before deciding whether or not wehave enough reason to even bother with trying to come to any agreement onemployment.'

Dan said, 'Fair enough. What are your concerns regarding the project, Lee?'

I said, 'First, I work as an independent contractor, so I never sign any agreementwhich could bind me over as a company asset if the project is taken over bythe government.'

Dan said, 'That could be difficult, but not impossible. May I ask what itis that bothers you so much about the government?'

I said, 'You are working on a time constraint, and your company is workingto make a profit and go on to the next project. None of these factors appliesto the government. Besides, if they take over this project, nothing willbe accomplished. If they do complete an analysis and make recommendations,it will be so long before the next department even looks at them that nothingwill be done before the next millenium. I do not intend to waste my timeworking on a project that is meaningless.'

Dan said, 'I can understand the feeling, but why the insistence on such autonomy? Even if the government took over the project, you would still have to becompensated for the time they retained you on it.'

I said, 'Because I don't like to waste my time when I could be doing otherthings that I consider more important. If I decide that my contribution toa project is complete, I leave the project. The contractor has the rightto terminate before then, but not to require that I remain after completingall of the conditions of my contract.'

Dan said, 'OK. I think that you will serve a valuable purpose of keepingour people focused enough on the big picture to speed up the process of refiningtheir parts of the picture to provide a more accurate analysis. Give himthe exact details of what we want, Rick.'

Rick said, 'We intend to research the problem, evaluate the data, and createscenarios in as much detail as possible for what we consider the best, worst,and most probable outcomes. We also intend to develop solutions to eliminateas much of the problem as possible. No consideration will be given to modifyingthe software. The companies have known how to do that for years and havebeen unwilling to cut their profits by the small amount it would have takento gradually eliminate the problem.'

I said, 'What time frame are you talking about?'

Rick said, 'Today is February 2. We intend to have the scenarios developedby March 2, and the recommended solutions developed by April 15. These areour deadlines if we want to have any lead time to disseminate our findingsand allow others to act on them in time to reduce the problems we foresee.'

I said, 'The deadlines are OK as long as you don't intend to do full scalecomputer simulations. In fact, the six weeks plus between the scenarios andthe solutions can probably be cut in half, because we will already know muchof what we can do to decrease certain factors by the time we finish developingthe scenarios. What do you mean by "disseminate your finding and allow othersto act on them"?'

Dan said, 'I have agreed to make this project autonomous. Although our personneland facilities will be used, they are no longer under control of my company. In order to meet the desired deadlines and goals, our board has agreed tosubcontract it out just like we would on a military contract. Rick is incharge of the project staff. If you agree to take the job, you will makethe decisions regarding how we can best use our results. Once we make recommendations,we realize that we will need to make sure that our findings are disseminatedfor public access so the people have a chance to act on them without the governmentand the media having a chance to misrepresent our findings or distort oursuggestions.'

I said, 'If I agree, I will make those decisions based on what the team decidesis the best course of action, but I will make the final decision on how weset up the timing and how we distribute the information if that is the jobdescription. If you make that my job, nobody will have the ability to overridemy decisions. The first time that happens will be the last because I willbe off the premises and my contract will be officially terminated within fifteenminutes. Is that clear?'

Rick said, 'Yes.'

Dan said, 'Perfectly clear. Now what are your terms of employment?'

I said, 'My salary is uncertain. I have a list of items which I will wantyou to fill completely to my specifications. It is the full list of itemswhich I consider necessary for the survival of a small, self-sufficient groupin the event of a worst case scenario. In addition to those items, you willpay all withholding and taxes to cover the value of everything on my list. I will not receive any other money from you or your company.'

Dan said, 'That could be quite a sum of money for three months work.'

I said, 'Your group will operate faster and solve the problem in less timeand with more accuracy if I, or someone like me, participates. If you thinkmy fee is too high, find another analyst or consultant. The more accurateyour results, the more money your firm will make or save. The quicker yourresults, the more time you have to prepare and even profit in terms otherthan money. There are two maxims that apply. The first is that time is money. The second is that he who gets there first with the most wins. You are askingme to help you start before your competition and also to provide you withthe most accurate map.'

Dan said, 'You are correct. Let me go over the list and determine how muchthis is going to cost before I make a final decision. How long will it takeyou to make out the list?'

I pulled an envelope from my jacket pocket and handed it to Dan. He smiledand said, 'I should have known that you would already have one prepared.'

I said, 'I have had that list prepared for years. My original list was somewhatscaled down to allow for my income and resources, but I took my time and filledit over the years. I added more items as they became available or there wasa chance to include them in the resources I had to allocate. That list isapproximately three times the size of the one that my wife and I were goingto fill over the next two months before we moved to our new home. The differenceis to compensate us for the work we will do for you over the next six monthsand the loss of time that we had planned to set up our new home.'

Rick said, 'So, you guys finally decided to make your big move. When wasI going to hear about it?'

I said, 'I would have visited you in two weeks, talked to you, and left yousome advice and suggestions if you hadn't called me. I figured that you wouldhave had enough time to do what you were going to do to survive.'

Rick smiled, shrugged, and said, 'Yeah, I would have done everything I wasgoing to do except the last minute details within the first two months. OK,Lee, you got me. Now I still owe you.'

Dan said, 'Did I hear you correctly when you said that your wife was alsogoing to work on the project, Lee?'

I said, 'Yes. She makes meals for the group. We will be working at leasttwelve hours a day, seven days a week from now on. It won't be that hardon them because they all end up spending their free time thinking about theproject anyway. She will also be in charge of getting the items on our list,and will make sure that any items you, your company, or the other team membersdecide to buy are also delivered. Some of the items are only available fromspecialty stores, and she knows them and the people who run them. She isalso very good at getting the best quality at the lowest price, and at gettingbulk discounts and delivery thrown in for free in some cases.'

Dan said, 'I'd like to meet your wife. She must be some kind of negotiator.'

I said, 'Naomi is a people person. Strangers like her and don't mind talkingto her before they have even been introduced. She often acts like a ditz,and most people think that she is just a cute little bit of fluff.'

Rick said, 'Yeah, right. Like a silk lining over an iron fist. She was smartenough and good enough to get you to talk her into marrying you while youstill thought that the whole thing was your idea. And she's a walking encyclopediaon just about any subject she has read a lot of books on, and she reads everythingshe can get her hands on that she has even a passing interest in.'

Dan said, 'I know that this list is going to set me back, but it won't doanything to me or my company compared to the best case scenario as we nowknow it. You can't win big if you don't gamble at all. Even if we provethat Y2K isn't going to do anything, I can more than make up for your feesin the first year just from the increased revenues because we were the firstand only company to independently PROVE that the whole Y2K issue was a lotof hype. And if it does have even moderate effects, I still win because wehad the time to prepare and to minimize our losses.'

Rick said, 'Welcome to the team, Lee. It's going to be great to work withyou again.'

I said, 'Dan, before I go, I have one suggestion for you and your corporation,and I won't need the results of any study to confirm my analysis.'

Dan said, 'What is that, Lee?'

I said, 'If you want to retain your assets, sell all of your stock in thestock market over the next few months. Do not renew any bonds or CDs. Putall of your money into ready cash, gold, silver, or hard currency. Do notbuy gold or silver futures or anything on paper that is not a hard asset suchas land or equipment.'

Dan said, 'Why would we want to do something like that so soon?'

I said, 'Because the people who run those big corporations know how badlythey will be affected by Y2K even if they haven't told anyone else. It'sthe one form of insider trading that the stock market will never be able toregulate. If they quietly sell small bundles of their stock over time, theywon't crash the market, and they will use the proceeds to diversify. Theywill also keep some cash back to buy stocks when the market crashes in thelast week of December, and some more cash back for survival just in case.'

Rick said, 'Why would the stock market crash in the last week of December?'

I said, 'Because by then, most of the big investors who are cautious willhave already sold their stock and minimized their risks. After a sharp peak,the bottom will fall out because so many people will be making the decisionto risk losing some money and taking a loss on their investments instead oflosing it all if the whole system crashes when the new year begins. They'llfigure that they can take their losses on taxes next year if everything worksout all right. If it doesn't work out all right, they have some money, andthey probably won't be filing any taxes for a while.'

Rick said, 'But why would the big investors risk losing so much control oftheir company by selling off so much stock?'

Dan said, 'Because if the market does crash, and it probably will, they canbuy their stock back for pennies on the dollar. Even if everything crashes,they made a profit and have all the stock in their company. The governmentand media are probably downplaying the problem because it supports the interestsof big business, which directly supports the interests of the politiciansand the political parties.'

I said, 'Careful, Dan, you're starting to sound like one of those anti-governmentright-wing conspiracy theory nuts.'

Dan said, 'Damn. It's contagious, especially when you link what most peoplewould consider totally unrelated events and just apply a little common senseand logic to reach a conclusion.'

I said, 'Common sense and logic are highly overrated. Just ask the press. They still think that we are educating our children in public schools. Nevermind the fact that 40% of our high school graduates are functionally illiterate,or that it takes a bachelor's degree from a college to get you as preparedfor a job and educated as the average high school graduate was in 1950.'

Rick said, 'It's actually that bad in the schools now?'

Dan said, 'According to personnel, it's at least that bad. They have to screenapplicants to fill our openings, and they have to screen about ten to filleven our janitorial positions.'

Rick said, 'I knew things had gone downhill somewhat. I mean, I've been workingwith the military for years. I thought that some of their new comic bookform manuals were some joke to pacify liberals. I didn't think that the armyhad to develop a comic book for how to use a LAAWS rocket simply because itwas easier than teaching their average recruit how to read a properly writtentechnical manual.'

I said, 'Well, before we get totally off the beaten track, Rick and I hadbetter get the group together and tell them about the new schedule. And Ihave to call Naomi and get her to come over to start organizing her duties. Dan, you will have to call security and inform them that my wife is armedand is to remain that way. She will also have to have whatever access thatRick has set up for me. When you get the contract we discussed written up,we'll go over it and sign it. Right now, I have work to do, and time is running,people.'

Dan waved us out and got the paperwork rolling. Rick and I went to his officeso I could call Naomi and get her started. Then we had to meet with the teamagain and get this project rolling in high gear.

Chapter 6

Naomi answered the phone on the second ring. I was surprised to find herawake at 9:00 a.m. when she didn't have to be, but I guess there was no reasonfor her to sleep her vacation away when she could be up enjoying the countryand the relatively warm weather. Winter in the south does have its advantages.

I said, 'Naomi, I hate to tell you this, but your vacation is over.'

She said, 'Aren't you going to take the job?'

I said, 'Yes. I'll sign the paperwork later today. I also signed you on,and we're going to keep you busy. Once we sign the paperwork, you'll haveto quit your last job, pack our stuff, and put the house on the market. Liquidateeverything we have planned, and help get us set up in this region. Our planshave been moved forward a little.'

Naomi was somewhat concerned about the salary I was able to negotiate untilI told her exactly what I had required to sign on. She was elated to hearthat our complete list would be filled at triple its original size while allowingus to retain everything we had prepared and all of the money we had back tofill the list.

I told her to start making out a list of the things she wanted to get stockedup on that were not included on the necessities list. We would go over ourindividual 'extras' lists, combine them, and decide what we could get withthe extra cash we now had to spend to help get our homestead set up.

When I told her that she would be doing some cooking to keep the team fromdying of junk food poisoning in the cafeteria, Naomi laughed and asked howI intended to keep them from getting too fat to work once they started eatingher cooking. I told her that they could think while they were getting fat,but I didn't think that any of them would get fat on Naomi's cooking. Whileshe is a great cook, who insists on fresh, organic fruits and vegetables,her food will never compete with any fast food for fat content.

Rick and I were just entering the group's work area when I told him that Naomiwould be bringing over lunch for everyone. Several of the guys perked upat the mention of a free home-cooked meal. Rick looked stricken, complainingabout dying from a diet of rabbit food and crackers. I punched him in theshoulder and told him to quit clowning around so we could get to work. Hewas still laughing as he told the group that I was officially on board andthat our new work schedule would take effect immediately.

We briefed the group on what the project parameters were and what our immediategoals were. There was some discussion about the feasibility of the firstdate for the scenarios to be completed, but we all agreed that it would notbe very difficult to achieve with the narrowed scope that had been set. Everyoneagreed with my assessment that because we were refining and streamlining ourscenarios as we went, it would be easy to have our suggestions for possiblesolutions worked out before the end of March.

Rick and I went over our meeting with Dan, explaining to them what had beendecided and allowing them to ask questions and make suggestions on how bestto go about achieving our goals. A few people raised questions about theadvisability of finding ways to issue our results and recommendations withoutgoing through the media or the government, but everybody agreed with the assessmentthat it was necessary in order to get the correct information disseminatedin time to allow people to take action before they were left with no independentchoices to make.

Kristin agreed that the stock market crash I had described to Dan seemed highlyprobable given the data she had, and that the big investors would probablydo something like I had outlined in order to capitalize on the situation. They would be able to make a killing no matter how Y2K turned out. Sinceit was almost lunchtime by now, we let the discussion continue on its naturalcourse. Several of them were discussing the ramifications of political corruptionand big business when Naomi arrived with lunch.

We kept working, and Naomi introduced herself around as we continued talkingand eating. She worked her way through several conversations, and managedto meet everyone within the first half hour. I noticed that Naomi and Danielleseemed to hit it off really well, and I guessed that the good doctor wouldsoon know more about herbs, holistic medicine, and natural healing than shehad ever thought possible. Naomi was good at getting people interested innew things, especially if they could be related to something they were alreadyinterested in.

I got Rick, and we went over to a quiet corner.

'You know that we have a tiger by the tail, and he is not a happy camper.'

Rick shrugged. 'What do you think we can do about it? We can't solve thecomputer problem. Even if we had a solution, we couldn't get everyone tofix it in time. Hell, if you're right, some of them have intentionally putoff fixing the problem.'

'Even if there is no problem, there will be chaos. The people have been programmed. They haven't seen the beast. They haven't heard the beast. But somebodytold them there was a beast. Now they're afraid, and they are going to runscared at the first sound before they find out if the beast is a tiger ora mouse.'

Danielle spoke up. 'Applied psychology. Condition the subject and wait forthe response at the appropriate time.'

Rick and I both responded in unison. 'No. Psychological warfare.'

'What's the difference? It all works out the same.'

Rick looked at me and shrugged, so I took over the answer. 'The differencesare subtle, but very important, and could greatly affect the outcome of severalsections of our scenarios. When you condition a subject, you are trainingthem to give a specific response. You reward or punish behavior to encouragethe response you want until that response is the predominant one.'

'In psychological warfare, you don't condition a subject, you use force orintimidation to influence them, provoking a response. You don't care whatthe response is as long as fear is the initiator. Fear induces violent reactionsfrom your core. Reactions which can often override reason.'

'You're talking about the fight or flight response. That's a short-term response,and it won't significantly affect health in the individual or in the populationas a whole.'

'Let's examine two scenarios, and you tell me if the fight or flight responsecan be used to affect the health of the overall population. First, thereis a big storm with major damage. You have no power, no clean water, andlittle food. You sit in your home because it is dangerous to go outside. You are afraid, but you realize that the storm will end and you will be ableto get food and water.'

'Second, there are rioters down the block. They are looting and setting fires. They were rioting because they wanted food and water, but they have set thegrocery stores on fire by accident. You are afraid, and you realize thatthey are busting down doors to take whatever food and water they can find. You don't have any food or water, but you don't think that they are rationalenough to listen or believe you. You do have a gun, and a family to protect.'

'Which scenario do you think is more likely to occur in a city during a poweroutage? Remember that everyone thinks that no help is going to come, thatthey are not important enough for the government to get around to them untilit's too late, and that the only way they will ever be able to get anythingis to take it.'

'That's sad. There is no hope, only fear and despair.'

'That is psychological warfare. Whether it was deliberately done or not doesnot matter. The fact is that especially in the major cities, many peoplelive in a constant state of fear just in order to survive. It only takesso much to push enough of them beyond their threshold before it becomes contagious. A mob is an angry beast with many mouths and no brain controlling it.'

'And once rioting begins, it usually has to burn itself out. I understand. Many people will be injured or killed even if nothing goes wrong becausesome people will snap under the pressure of the disaster they think is aboutto happen. If the disaster does happen, it will only be worse because peoplewill not be reacting rationally and will think that they have nothing to losebecause the only thing left right now is survival.'

'That's right. That is why we begin planning and taking the necessary precautionsto survive in the event of the worst case scenario. We gather the items necessaryto survive now, while it is calm and there is no difficulty in obtaining them. We prepare ourselves physically, mentally, and spiritually to survive anytype of disaster. We don't hope that it comes. We hope that we are preparedand are capable of surviving it IF it comes.'

'What if the disaster never comes?'

'Doctor, I have survived floods, blizzards, tornadoes, droughts, armed attacks,and disease. Many other people can make the same claims, but many otherscan not. I am a survivor. All of these things could be survived just bychance alone by any individual. However, if a little planning and a few simplepreparations not only make it more likely that I will survive, but that Iwill be in better shape afterwards than if I had not taken those precautions,what would your prescription be?'

'Prepare and plan for the worst.'

'Exactly what we intend to do. While we hope and pray for the best.'

I left to circulate and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the variousgroups. Rick and Danielle remained in the corner talking for quite a while.

Danielle said, 'Well, he's your friend, Rick. Why in the world does he thinklike that? What makes him so cynical about the world at the same time thathe is so hopeful for the outcome?'

'Why don't you ask Naomi? She'd be the one to tell you if anyone could, butI don't know if she would even if she knew. I never wanted to get that farinside his mind. I caught a small glimpse of what he was thinking one time,and he has made sure that I have never been forced to go through that again. I was reminded of it yesterday.'

'What happened?'

'What happened long ago is personal, and best left buried. But I can tellyou what happened yesterday.'

'What? Come on, tell me. Or do I have to drag it out of you?'

'Picture Lee sitting in Dan's office, calmly and with no emotion whatsoever,saying that in his opinion, the worst case scenario for Y2K would result in"The complete and total collapse of American society as we know it, with thepotential loss of at least thirty to fifty percent of the population of thiscountry." Now you know why I don't want to know what he's thinking about. I'd like to be able to sleep at night.'

Chapter 7

By the end of the first week, our routine was established. Dan often droppedby and contributed, making it easier to summarize our progress during ourweekly meeting with him. Naomi showed up with lunch when she was able to,and spent several hours going over ideas and suggestions with different people.

Our individual sections interacted more, continually revising their individualsegments as they worked out more and more of the interaction matrix with theother groups. We usually spent more of each day as one large group than asthe individual sections.

John and I usually spent most of our time looking for possible ways to alteror rebuild the utilities, although we did manage to come up with some possiblesolutions to limit damage in the event of major problems. Since there wasno way for his group to force anyone to comply with any of their suggestions,they spent much of their time planning how best to minimize damage and developshort cuts to restore service if possible.

Danielle's group spent a lot of time talking to Rick or me. Although theyunderstood epidemiology, someone else had always taken charge of the end ofthe operation which made sure that their possibly infected "carriers" werecontained in one location until they could be checked and certified as healthyor the elapsed time had indicated that the contagion had burned itself out. Thinking in terms of military control being the only possible way to completelycontain their patients, and knowing that they would not have the luxury ofthat option in many cases, made them alter their worst case scenario drastically. Their numbers soon grew the two orders of magnitude that Danielle and I hadtalked about.

The first time they showed me their revised numbers, I simply shook my headand said that I had hoped that I had been wrong in my calculations. Danielledidn't say a word, but she did give me the strangest look before she wentback to her group and told them to recalculate the figures again.

The good news was that our worst case scenario did not seem to be gettingany worse than we had initially predicted even after refining it several timesto account for additional variables. If anything, it was improving, evenif it was only slightly.

The bad news was that our best case scenario had become drastically worsethan we initially expected once we factored in the possibility that variousindividuals or groups might use the event for their own personal gain. Somewould do it for money, while others would do it for hate or revenge, but theoverall results were the same. It didn't matter whether a few capitalistsused the opportunity to impoverish as many people as possible so they couldget richer, or a few extremists started violence and widespread arson to achievetheir vision. The end result was that there was a distinct possibility ofeconomic disaster, destruction of property, and numerous deaths and casualties.

At our first meeting with Dan on the 6th, we broke the news to him that wewere worried that there were several factors involved that he was previouslyunaware of. During our discussions, we had touched on them while he was present,but we thought that he should hear a complete account so he would understandwhy our best case scenario had deteriorated so badly.

'As you know, we initially estimated that there would be some problems, butthat there would be little to worry about in the best case scenario. Aftercareful consideration and much evaluation, we have revised our opinion. Wenow believe that even if there is no problem with any of the computer systemsin this country, there is the possibility of an economic collapse, rioting,looting, widespread panic, large fires in the cities, massive property damage,and substantial loss of life.'

Dan shot to his feet. 'But you said that minor computer glitches were containable,and could possibly be controlled so that there was almost no damage.'

'That is true. With minor computer glitches, the systems can be salvagedand the damage can be minimized. However, that assumes that the people donot overreact and cause widescale panic and damage on their own.'

'I understand that the people are somewhat unpredictable, and could causemassive destruction and loss of life at any time through senseless violence. What has caused you to alter your stance and convinced you that the probabilityof human violence has increased, especially if there is no computer malfunctionto serve as a flash point?'

'We have reevaluated several variables, Dan, and have reached some conclusionswhich indicate that there will be more trouble if there is no computer problemthan there would be if minor or moderate problems occur. The factors involvedare related to human nature, but are specific for our culture and societybecause we are working on solving the problem in America, not the rest ofthe world. We don't have the time to even contemplate the results anywhereelse and still meet the deadlines we have established.'

'We have concluded that there is a high probability that various groups willuse this opportunity to stir up violence. White supremacists may take thisevent as a chance to start riots and fires in the cities, hoping that if thewater pressure does fail, the number of minorities killed in the fires ortheir aftermath will be impressive. They could also wait until water pressuredid fail, hoping for even more death and destruction.'

'My God! That would be horrible. How could they even contemplate such athing?'

'You are asking someone who only knows that there are people on this planetwhose fondest dream is the day when they and their friends have killed everyperson on this planet of the race or ethnic group that they currently hatethe most. It is not explainable, it merely is a fact of life that there arepeople like that. However, those same people may choose to do nothing, fearingthat they will be blamed for whatever happens even if they are completelyinnocent. That is also a fact of life in this world.'

'The probability of some groups stirring up trouble is almost a certainty,but it will likely remain random and unorganized acts by a few groups or individualsunless the media is intact and spreads the news. In that event, retaliatoryprotest actions resulting in fires and riots will be more widespread, increasingthe scope and magnitude of the damage.'

'OK, what's the good news?'

'That was the good news. The bad news is that even in the event of no computerfailures at all, there is likely to be an economic collapse at least on thescale of the Great Depression. The cause will be a stock market collapse,and we believe that this collapse may be unavoidable.'

'What do you mean unavoidable? Surely we can do something to make sure thatthe stock market doesn't collapse. We can shut it down.'

'That would cause a panic, resulting in economic losses, property damage,violence, and loss of life. The extent would depend on the ability to keepthe reactions controlled and limit news coverage which would inflame peoplewho are already near their own ignition point.'

'Then we could keep the stock market open and do tests to show that thereis no way the computers will crash. We'll have to instill confidence in thepublic and alleviate their fears.'

'That will not work because the people do not trust the government and theydo not trust the rich people who control the stock market. The public willbelieve that the tests were rigged, and will become even more convinced thatthere really is a problem because they wouldn't be trying to get everyoneelse to buy their stocks if there was nothing to worry about. Once the stockmarket begins to fall, there will be panic selling, and the system will shutthe market down. The next day will be worse, and it will continue until thesystem does crash or the market goes up after the new year begins.'

'Then there won't be violence and panic.'

'No. Then the violence and panic really begins. The public will start tobelieve that it was all some plot cooked up by the rich profiteers to takeadvantage of the market and make millions or billions at their expense. Thesebeliefs will only be bolstered by the fact that many of those who will buywhile the stocks are down will be the rich who have the money to risk, andthey will have sold some of their stock before it fell too far, allowing themto profit even more.'

'It won't be long before people start to consider either hunting for "therich bastards who did this to me" or just begin to start committing randomacts of violence out of frustration. Once it starts, all the other peoplewho feel the same way will follow suit, and the violence will escalate.'

'Another possibility is that the rich, or a few of them, may actually haveengineered some scheme to cause a stock market crash in order to make a killingon the stock market. If so, it would not be difficult, and the results wouldbe the same. In fact, the probability is almost 100% that some rich investorsare already selling off stock in case Y2K does hit so that they can survive. They know that there will almost certainly be at least a short panic crashin the last week of December, in which case they can regain the stocks theysold for pennies on the dollar. If there is a computer failure, they stillhave most of their money to help them survive. If not, they have made a killingwhich they will probably not see happen again in their lifetime.'

'This possibility will not escape the notice of the investors. Many of themwill feel that they have been manipulated and swindled. There will be somevalidity to that belief, because a few rumors leaked to reporters would beall that would be required to initiate the panic and ensuing crash. Whatthe rich investors do not count on is that it is almost certain that the publicwill react violently should this occur. Either way, if the rich profit froma stock market collapse at that time, they will be blamed for it and therewill be violence.'

'So the rich will be blamed and there will be violence if the stock marketcollapses and millions of small investors lose their life savings. Why wouldthis happen now when nothing like that happened in 1929?'

'In 1929, the stock market was only used by corporations and the rich. Thecollapse had such lasting effects because the people who were responsiblefor the collapse were allowed to profit from their mistakes without punishment. Bankers used bank funds for investments, keeping the profits while riskingthe life savings of the bank customers. When the market fell, they had tosell short and pay off what they owed. This took most of the money in theirbanks, and they made sure that most of the rest was withdrawn by themselvesand their rich cronies before the public made the rush on the banks. Theirrecord keeping covered their tracks, and they even paid off bank examinersto avoid prosecution.'

'After the dust settled, these same unscrupulous individuals profited evenmore when they foreclosed on properties when the owners couldn't pay theirmortgage due to the fact that their life savings had been gambled away bythe bank officers. They also used some of the cash from the bank that theyhad withdrawn "from their own accounts" to buy the stocks they had been forcedto sell, knowing that the value would return in a few years. The factoryand goods that those stocks represented was still sitting right where it wasthe day before the crash.'

'Because the American people were more trusting, they did nothing to thosewho were responsible for one of the biggest swindles ever perpetrated uponthe citizens of this country. Contrast this with the Savings and Loan failuresof the last few decades. Congress delayed and put off the problem while itwent from a few dozen S&Ls to hundreds of S&Ls, and the cost to Americantaxpayers went from hundreds of millions of dollars to almost a hundred billiondollars. The people responsible were in many cases forced to sell off allof their assets to repay what they could and were sentenced to jail for theircrimes. Not all of them, but enough to keep the people from going ballisticbecause Congress was openly in collusion with their paid supporters.'

'Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times... Nobody likes to think that he is being made the fool, and the public at largehas lost its trust of the government and big business. That loss of trusthas been repeatedly justified by the actions of the politicians and theircronies. Over the last seven decades, there has been a gradual widening ofthe gap between the wealthy and the poor, with those in between being graduallypushed closer and closer to those at the bottom of the social scale.'

'There has also been a gradual decline in the amount of education that theaverage person receives, especially those who hold jobs at the low end ofthe ladder. Because of other social and cultural changes, our society hasalso become more violent. The despair and helplessness of the lower class,combined with their being conditioned to accept the constant violence in theirlives, means that they are more prone to accept a violent solution to theirproblems when the opportunity arises.'

'I believe that eventually everyone has to be held responsible for their actions,and that there will be a whole lot of people who may be facing some form ofjudgment a lot sooner than they now believe possible.'

'Do you believe that there is any way to avoid this kind of disaster?'

'I believe that politicians, like leopards, can not change their spots. Unlikeleopards, they can understand the meaning of the quote, "That which ye sow,so shall ye also reap." Unfortunately, they believe that they are above thelaw, and that there is nobody with the power and authority to make them accountablefor their actions. Marie Antoinette held the same belief when she said, "Letthem eat cake." instead of addressing the problem of starving peasants whodidn't even have bread to eat.'

'Do you mean to imply that you believe that there will be another revolutionin this country? If so, do you think that it would start next year?'

'No, I don't believe that there will be a revolution. A revolution requiresorganization and a goal. Most of the violence will occur as the result ofgroups which have many different goals, both short term and long term. Wedo not believe that there will be any serious threat to the government inthe best case scenario. That does not mean that the government, its officials,and its agents will be immune. Many of the individuals and buildings mayactually be targets of violence. But we do not believe that there will bea concerted effort to overthrow the government and replace it with somethingelse. However, there is a good probability that the government will makechanges in order to restore order. We believe that they are just as awareas we are that if those changes are away from the Constitution and towarda more restrictive or oppressive form of government, it is almost certainthat enough people will resist that a civil war will become inevitable.'

Chapter 8

Dan said, 'I don't like the direction this discussion is heading. It almostsounds subversive, although I know that we are talking in political and socialdynamics, and that you are not interested in backing the extremist militiafringe in their efforts to restore this country to strict Constitutional government,even if that was feasible at the present time.'

I laughed, and said, 'You definitely have me confused with someone else. You are also definitely deluded if you think you are going to put the governmentback under the control of the American people without an army, without winninga bloody, violent, protracted war, without killing or eliminating the entirepower base of the elite who have set themselves up as the ruling class inAmerica over the last two centuries.'

'If you think that all men are created equal, why are the majority of thepeople in this country afraid of the government? And it is the majority. They may not fear the entire government, and they may not think that thegovernment has already targeted them specifically, but many do believe this,and they are not paranoid. Some only fear a particular agency, others theentire government, but the fear is there, and it is more than the fear thatthey will be caught and punished if they break the law. The more intelligentpeople in this country know that our government has already become a hydra,with agencies creating their own laws, interpreting their meaning, and decidinghow and when to enforce them, often in their own courts. With no oversight,no judicial review, and no way to keep up with all of the regulations, thereis no way not to break a federal law during you lifetime.'

'Paranoia is an unreasonable or irrational fear. It is not irrational tofear a government that habitually targets random citizens for harassment,illegal search and seizure of property, prosecution, or even death based ongroundless, unsupported statements from unreliable sources who are tryingto escape jail time. It is not unreasonable to expect the government to liveup to its end of the contract and protect you from those abuses, but the governmentdoesn't, and does its best to cover up these excesses, including those whosuccessfully defend themselves from illegal, unconstitutional actions beingcarried out by federal officers.'

'If things don't change, one day soon, the federal agents will find that theyare outnumbered, outgunned, and surrounded, and that instead of doing whatthey please to terrorize some poor guy with impunity, even though they knowthey have no legal right to enter his property, they will not have his friendsand neighbors standing idly by. They will be cut down in a crossfire so badthat even the police will refuse to enter the area. Will the government sendthe National Guard or military units into a middle class neighborhood to killa group of families who exercised their Constitutional rights by legally acquiringand keeping weapons and then using them to protect themselves and others froma violent felony when the local law enforcement officials refused to do theirduty to serve and protect their community.'

'Make no mistake. Just because the federal agents are not prosecuted by thegovernment, they don't operate with total impunity for their actions. Thegovernment of this country still ultimately draws its power from the people,and should not make the same mistake that the Japanese did in finding outonly after it was too late that they had awakened a sleeping tiger insteadof a napping housecat.'

'The people who would be shooting federal agents are the same people who wouldbe serving in the National Guard and have family members in the military,and the powerful ruling class of this country knows that any military attemptto make the people let the federal agents continue their unchallenged ruleof terror could quite literally cause the combat troops to join the fightand use their increased firepower to hunt down and kill those responsiblefor keeping them in poverty by using their influence to make sure that theygot richer while everyone else got poorer. The military would be confinedto their bases to guard their equipment so it couldn't be used against thegovernment, and they would just hope that enough equipment and heavy weaponsin the National Guard armories stayed there that the bases didn't come underheavy attack.'

'When government agencies, and their agents, violate the Constitution withimpunity, and it takes the courts at least four years in totally uncontestedcases to rule that a law-abiding citizen did nothing wrong, that his rightswere intentionally violated, and even then the agency may refuse to make restitutionor return his property, then the Constitution means nothing, and the commoncitizen has no Constitutional rights. If you only have the rights that acourt says you have, and it takes four years for the court to give them toyou, you have no rights. Unless the government must prove its case, showthat you violated the law, be held accountable for its mistakes in a processwhere any fault or wrongdoing on the part of the government makes it automaticallyliable, and must make full and complete restitution for all property seizedor damaged, and must prosecute all violations of Constitutional and federallaw commited by federal agents, the people do not control the government. It controls them.'

'When enough people have become dissatisfied with the government, when theyhave quit voting because they know their vote doesn't matter, when they trulybelieve that eventually the feds will get around to them because everyoneknows that it's only a matter of time before the statistics catch up withyou, when even thirty percent of the population is mad enough, hungry enough,or just plain fed up enough to do something, the government will have a majorproblem on its hands. Even if ninety percent of these do nothing to fightactively against the government, they will still identify with and possiblyhelp those who do.'

'Three percent of the population is nine million pissed people. Too manyto imprison, intimidate, threaten, or even track down efficiently. And manyof them will fight because they have nothing to lose. Too many for all ofthe field agents in all of the federal law enforcement agencies combined. Even without organization and planning, it is enough of a force to successfullyattrit the government's finest down to nothing, to destroy every federal buildingthey decide to, to execute various government leaders who consider themselvesabove the law.'

'What would Congress do if 50,000 armed people stormed the headquarters ofthe FBI, DEA, CIA, IRS, BATF, and Justice Department in a single day? Whatwould they do if these citizens produced and distrubuted classified documentsthat showed senior level officials were guilty of violating the Constitution,federal and state laws, and that nothing had been done to punish them? Whatwould they do if these people were tried, sentenced, and executed, accordingto law, within a few days? There is no reason for the trials to take longer,as the facts are in evidence, and legal loopholes and plea bargains wouldnot be allowed. Justice, and the law, do not require federal courts, or eventhe Supreme Court to rule on their validity.'

'Would Congress attempt to kill or stop these people when they were informedthat these were the equivalent of the Nuremberg Trials? Not for war crimes,but for crimes commmitted against the people by agents and agencies usingthe government as an unwitting shield and accomplice. If following ordersis enough to execute Nazi prison camp guards for war crimes, then doing thesame thing should definitely be enough to warrant the same punishment forfederal agents who intentionally violated the Constitution and federal andstate laws, committing felonies, and knowingly terrorizing innocent citizens,seizing their property, and even killing them for trying to prevent a felonyand protecting themselves, both legal and Constitutional rights.'

'Our own government cries out about human rights, yet refuses to discipline,let alone prosecute and punish federal agents who knowingly murdered innocentcitizens of their own country, including a mother who was unarmed and holdinga baby in her arms, and an unarmed fourteen-year-old boy who was shot in theback. In fact, the agents were later honored as heroes for committing thesemurders, and those who ordered them to do it were promoted. Even after thejury decided that they had lied in court, withheld evidence, and attemptedto cover up their crimes by fabricating evidence, withholding evidence, committingperjury, and framing the man they had entrapped into committing a minor, non-violentcriminal act in the first place.'

'Just as it was no coincidence that the Oklahoma City bombing occurred onthe anniversary of Waco, it was no coincidence that Waco occurred on the anniversaryof the battles of Lexington and Concord. Certain groups within the governmentsent a message that not only would they persecute those they found offensive,they would make sure that their agents operated with impunity. The responsewas that they actually motivated the American people and ignited the militiamovement by making many more people believe that the thought that they mightactually have to defend themselves against the government, or worse thingsif the government suddenly lost control of our increasingly violent society,was neither paranoid nor irrational. They also directly sparked the responsethat showed that one man, or even a few dedicated people, with no educationor military training, could do just as much damage to the people and propertyof the government, and that an eye for an eye was still not only possible,but almost impossible to prevent if they pissed enough people off.'

'Any attempts to compromise or stop the conflict while the current rulingclass still has their wealth and power base intact would inevitably allowthem to undermine or bypass all of your changes and regain their power. Theymight even pretend to go along with the changes to allow themselves newfoundrespectability and to get rid of a subgroup who was challenging the statusquo, but it wouldn't change anything except for a few of the names of thosewho held the power. The people wouldn't gain, and would only be hurt moreby the chaos involved in the power struggle.'

'This is the picture of the country in the event of civil war. The only differencethat Y2K will make is that it may force the issue before it would have occurrednaturally. Those who are displeased with the government may think that thisis their best opportunity to make lasting and effective changes, by whatevermeans they decide are most suited to their purposes. The government may decidethat this is the perfect opportunity to get rid of their most vocal and violentopponents and use the confusion and unrest to conceal their acitivities.'

Dan said, 'If war comes, which side will you support?'

I said, 'I will protect what is mine from all threats.'

'And if that threat is from the lawful government?'

I said, 'The military oath, as well as that of the president, states thatyou are required to 'defend, preserve, and protect the Constitution of theUnited States of America from all enemies, foreign and domestic'. It doesn'tsay what to do if that enemy turns out to be the government that is supposedto follow the Constitution. That is because the response is supposed to bethe same, regardless of the threat. An individual, a group, an army, a government,a nation, all threats are to be met by the armed militia, which is every armedadult who is willing to fight to defend this country, not a group of individualspicked by the standing army, which our forefathers also knew was a commontool to oppress the people by tyrants, or have you forgotten the warningsagainst a standing army in time of peace?'

'The Constitution is the supreme law of this land, and anything done outsideof the legal authority of the Constitution, by a citizen, a state, or thefederal government or its officers, is illegal. If I have broken no law,the government has no rights to oppress me or seize my property. Even thoughfederal judges rule that any federal agent is immune from prosecution forhis actions if he is in the line of duty, they have no legal right or basisfor the ruling if the agent violates federal and Constitutional laws and knowinglycommits a felony or murders an innocent person. If the Constitution has beensuspended, there is no lawful government, so the individual must protect himself. When the law has been usurped by those who have been charged to uphold thelaw, then the laws of man no longer have power because the contract whichgave them power has been abrogated by the one side without the consent ofthe other. Then, the laws of God and nature are all that is left. Thosewho defy these laws do so at their own peril, for God is a jealous being,and nature is merciless and unrelenting, and eventually there will be a reckoningwhich will balance the scales, though the initial swing often is much morethan that required to provide mere equalization.'

Dan said, 'That is a scary thought, but do you think that the individualswho are most concerned with what our government has done can affect the courseit will choose in the future without violent revolution. After all, theirpower is severely limited in comparison to that of the government, isn't it?'

I said, 'Power is not what you actually can do, but also what others perceiveyou can do under given circumstances. A threat acquires more power as itsuncertainty grows, but the response to a threat acquires less power as itsuncertainty grows. The only certainty in life is death because it is a necessarycomponent in the life cycle. All analysis drawn from inferences and secondarysources lacks the definitive numbers of primary data analysis from directobservation. But then, sociology and psychology are pseudosciences, as theyare subject to various factors which prevent repetition of the same experimentunder the same conditions, so the results are interpreted in a subjectivemanner, and are never more accurate than the person's skill at guessing ormaking some informed assumptions given certain facts.'

'It doesn't take a genius to say that people don't jump off of bridges, butsome people do. In fact, some do it for sport. You might say that I wouldnot pull a gun right now and blow my own head off. That would be a good guess,with a high percentage of probability that you were right. To say that Iwouldn't do the same thing to you right now would have a lower probabilityof you being correct, and that could drop rapidly if you were threateningme. That is a factor of individual survival.'

'Our interest is not in our current society's problems and how they shouldbe corrected, but in how we may prepare the most people to increase theirown survival in the event of major problems and failures associated with Y2K. Our primary goal is not the desire to change America by making it reflectthe original intentions of the people who wrote the Constitution and createdour current government, whatever your interpretation of those intentions maybe, but to make sure that the people survive. None of our work is gearedtoward the survival of the government in its current or any other form. Thatis the responsibility of the government and the people who do survive thecurrently impending crisis, and is beyond our abilities to predict or affectunder the present circumstances.'

Dan said, 'But aren't you supporting those who want to change the currentform of government by refusing to do everything you can to make sure thatit survives intact?'

'Governments must grow and change, as must societies, to deal with a changingworld. Stagnation results in decay, and eventually the government or societycollapses if it does not deal with the changing reality of life in an adequatemanner.'

'Perhaps you should consider this in your analysis. Those who oppose theinstitution of a New World Order are destined, if successful in their attemptsto change the policies and organization being formed to support the New WorldOrder, to create another set of rules for government which will differ fromthose they opposed and from those which were being transformed. They will,by necessity, create a New World Order of their own, and will of course, supportit as being more beneficial for the majority than that which it replaced.'

'Do they offer this support because they truly believe it, or because theyare now the ones in power? Is there even a difference between the two, anddoes it matter? Time and experience are the only true tests of social andpolitical truths, and the results only matter to those in power when theirtime is up and another group is taking its turn at the helm. And remember,if your views and methods are not supported by the majority, you will findout how fast an unstable and new government can become susceptible to a hostiletakeover. Even if your methods and views are accepted and welcomed by themajority, there will always be someone who doesn't like the new status quo,and how you handle those who dislike you is how people judge the truth ofa government. Not by what it says, but by what it does.'

'Actions always speak louder than words. Not only the actions a governmenttakes to solve a problem that it knows exists, but also the actions a governmentdoesn't take to solve a problem that it knows exists. Not only by who andwhat the government chooses to subject to enforcement measures, but also bywho and what the government doesn't choose to subject to enforcement measures. Not only by how and why a government chooses to enforce its will, but alsoby how and why a government doesn't choose to enforce its will.'

'Unless major changes occur, our present government is doomed, and those runningit may be as well, because the only way to forcibly change it is by violentoverthrow, and all other methods of change have been blocked for so long thateven if change were allowed to occur by other methods, it may be too littleand too late. I say this because our present government thinks not of howthey can best serve the people, but how they can best control and run thelives of the people. They think of what they can get away with or what thepeople will put up with instead of what they are supposed to do. They decidenot to do certain programs or carry out certain agendas because they don'tthink the people will allow them to or that the people will not stand forit, not because the things they want to do are wrong. They decide that theymust fund certain programs or pass certain laws because the people will replacethem if they don't, not because it is the right thing to do.'

'Thomas Jefferson was a remarkable man for many reasons, and he knew thatalthough the people had been subjected to a coup de etat by the framers ofthe Constitution, he believed that the Bill of Rights and electing good peopleto the government would allow the people to effect the changes required tosafeguard their rights and keep this country a free nation where the peopleruled their lives. He not only believed that a government that ruled by powerand fear, which controlled the lives of its citizens against their wishes,with no recourse for the citizen to change the government through its lawswas a tyranny, but that all tyrants are doomed to be eventually killed bythe people they had terrorized.'

'Jefferson also believed that any government that feared guns in the handsof its citizens, should. I believe that is an even more important warningfor a government that has spent the last seventy years systematically increasingits own powers while simultaneously increasingly infringing upon certain Constitutionalrights by increasingly regulating a right that the Constitution specificallystates shall not be infringed upon because the people who created this countrystated that this right was necessary for the preservation of a free society. If the tree of Liberty must, of necessity, be watered from time to time withthe blood of tyrants and patriots, remember that the patriots will eventuallywin. Ideas don't die, and education and creativity flourish only in freesocieties. They are oppressed and stifled by tyrants because they are a greaterthreat than a weapon in the hand of any one man. Weapons are only as dangerousas the man who uses them, for they are merely tools. Ideas are dangerousin and of themselves, for they can allow any man to think, to learn, to evaluate,and to decide how best to use the tools he has at his disposal for his owngood and the good of those he cares for.'

Dan said, 'Regardless of the cost of his actions?'

I said, 'The difference between a hero, a martyr, and a fool is only in theoutcome of what they attempted to do. A hero accomplishes his goal or doessomething, even though some heroes die doing it or attempting it. A martyrdies for his goal, and sometimes accomplishes more by dying than he couldhave by working toward that goal his entire life. A fool doesn't plan, andas a result, reacts to everything instead of having a chance to act.'

'If a man has nothing to lose, the cost of his actions means nothing to him. He may not succeed in getting what he wanted, but does he care now that hehas nothing left to live for? He may then do whatever he can to make surethat even if he dies, those who were his enemies do not benefit, and thenmake sure that they can not achieve their goals. If he has nothing to livefor, does it matter if the rest of the world is still there? Many peopleconsider death preferable to slavery, or even to being a prisoner in a gildedcage. Others consider that even a slave will eventually get at least onechance to rise up and destroy those who have wronged him. Some even believethat no matter what, as long as you are alive, you have a chance to destroyyour enemies, even if that means wiping out all life on the planet.'

'If you consider this last viewpoint to be an extreme, psychotic, sociopathologicalexpression that no sane person would endorse, consider two phrases taughtand encouraged by our current government for the last 45 years. The firstis 'Better Dead Than Red', and the second is 'Mutually Assured Destruction'. As long as they had shelters, some warning, and a way to protect themselves,the politicians and military were ready to write off vast numbers of thiscountry's citizens and subject the survivors to a living hell of radiationand forced relocation and prioritization. Does that sound like a servantof the people, or a tyrant?'

'Be careful what master you choose to serve. For those who say that it isbetter to choose the devil you know instead of the devil you don't, I remindyou that you have already chosen to serve a devil by limiting your choicesbetween the lesser of the two evils, instead of choosing between what youknow to be good and right and what you know to be evil and wrong. God givesyou free choice. That is a right and a privilege. The price you pay, forno privilege or right comes without a cost, is that you are responsible forevery action and decision you make, and you can't blame others for the consequencesof the actions you freely entered into. And doing nothing and deciding totake no action is an action. One which sometimes has more lasting consequencesthan either of the the other choices you were considering.'

'Sometimes, the right choice is action, regardless of the consequences, andsometimes the right choice is to wait. Action, once begun, can never be undone. Inaction can always be turned into action, but the delay may increase ordecrease the cost of the desired outcome. The trick lies in making the properchoice with the information you have available, accepting responsibility forthe choice and its consequences, and doing the best you can to achieve thedesired outcome with what you have to work with. If it's not possible toachieve the desired outcome, you can still make sure that you do everythingpossible to make sure that the outcome is as far from the least desirableoutcome as you can get.'

'If you have nothing to live for, the cost is not important. If you do havesomething to live for, and the outcome is not so bad that death is preferable,there is always the chance that you will be able to do more in the future,when the situation may become more favorable to accomplish what you want. Then the cost must be considered in your decision.'

.'We have had the technology for years to make this country truly a democracyfor the first time in its history, but who would have the time to sit andlisten to all of the debates about the issues? Does it really matter? Ifsomething really needs done at the national level, the people would vote onit and decide. They would have to accept responsibility for their decisions. Those who lost couldn't say that everyone else had been bought off by somespecial interest group. Nobody has that much money. But those in power donot want to give the power they have accumulated back to the people.'

'Do you think we really need to regulate how many minutes of commercials aTV station runs in an hour? People will just watch some other station ifthey run too many commercials, and the idiots will change their policy orgo out of business. If any business had been run like Congress ran this country,it would have gone down the tubes, and the people responsible would have beenlynched by their investors for abusing their trust and profiteering at theexpense of the people who had paid them.'

'Be careful what you set out to achieve. You may actually succeed, and onlyfind out after it was too late that you didn't really want to accomplish whatyou set out to do. You never know, though. You may find out that you gotsomething completely different, and that it's what you were looking for allalong. Remember, the original ideas of the Constitution led us to where weare today because they were modified in their enforcement without ever changingthem. The document still exists, and is supposedly the supreme law of theland, but the law is only as good as those who interpret and enforce it.'

Dan said, 'So you are telling me that there is no way our group can affectthe results, and that the government will either survive or fail dependingon its own actions and responses, and how the people respond to it?'

'That's right. They have had years to convince the people to believe allof their wonderful rhetoric, and to get them to listen to what they say andignore what they do. Now, the survival of the government depends on the abilityof those in charge to adapt and learn. Regardless of what the press does,the people will believe only what they see the government doing, and theywill demand proof to back up any claims made by politicians.'

'If they say one thing and do another, the people will determine the bestway to solve the problem, and none of our scenarios predict any significantpossibility of the government winning any type of armed conflict or situationinvolving the use of force or threats of force to control the population andresolve the problems to their own benefit at the expense of the citizens ofthis country. All of our presentations to date have illustrated the growingdisillusionment and discontent among the population in dealings with our governmentand its agencies.'

'All we can do is provide the people with the information they need to survive. How or if they decide to remodel or rebuild their government after thingsbecome settled down again is up to them. That is not our decision to make.'

Dan said, 'Thank God for small favors.'

Rick said, 'One of the advantages of a democracy is that you are only responsiblefor yourself, and maybe a few others. You control your actions, and are responsiblefor the actions of your minor children. You only become responsible to answeringfor the actions of others when you choose to go into government. Any poweryou receive to limit the actions of others means that you accept responsibilityfor how that power is used, and will eventually be held accountable by thepeople who allowed you to have that power. If they find you to be irresponsible,they will take that power away from you. By force, if necessary. Irresponsibleindividuals are generally replaced and the public is calmed and reassuredbefore that becomes necessary.'

Chapter 9

Dan was upset by the tone of our report, and was visibly shaken by the realizationthat we were possibly facing a disaster of historic proportions simply becauseof human nature. Even if there was no problem with the technology, a hopethat we had all agreed was a pipe dream, the fear and reactions generatedby the unknown had been sown and allowed to grow. Conditions and responseshad provided fertile ground for the public to create its own monster. Althoughmost would not believe that anything could happen until it was too late, theywere aware at least at a subconscious level that the monster was there.

Dan decided to clear up a few issues and get things organized in his own mindso that he could deal with them. We were in no hurry, and taking the timeto get the foundation firmly established would make things easier when webegan working on the possible solutions to minimize physical losses. Dansaid, 'OK, I need to get things organized in my mind. Give me the bare basicswithout the details so I can work out the rest later. What are we lookingat in the way of problems in the best case scenario, and what are the causes?'

I said, 'The working consensus to date is that there will be lost resources,damage to the support infrastructure required to keep those resources functioningin their current state, and some los&127;s of life. Our primary concern is topredict, as accurately as possible, what the probable disruptions will be. That will allow us to propose solutions to minimize damages and to allowsome functions to continue operating or to be reestablished or restructuredas soon as possible.'

Dan was pleased that the project could be so concisely defined, allowing littleroom for misinterpretation and misunderstanding. His next concern was toget enough facts organized to allow him to follow our reasoning and determineits validity. He was playing devil's advocate to find any flaws as soon aspossible. He said, 'Give me the basics, enumerating each type of disruptionindividually, without going into details on other effects and estimated severity.'

I continued, making sure that I minimized any loss of continuity that wouldsidetrack us from the direction Dan wanted to explore.

'There will be power outages. Too many nested systems are involved to allowthe facilities to escape computer problems, especially since all of the automationand computer control that has been incorporated.'

Dan asked for more detail on what types of power plants would be affected,since that might provide some solution to maintaining at least minimal poweron an emergency basis.

'All types of facilities will be affected. As far as we can discern, noneof the power companies has made enough headway to prevent failures, and theextent of the damage will be impossible to predict beyond general estimates. Coal and other fuel driven plants will lose their computer controls. Somewill simply shut down, while others will suffer fires, explosions, or equipmentdamage before the manual shutdown and evaluation can occur. Hydroelectricplants may suffer less damage initially, but the risk of total loss is fairlyhigh if extended problems threaten the structural integrity of the dams. Nuclear facilities have better training on emergency shutdowns, but the riskof serious potential effects is far greater than at any other type of plantdue to the consequences of a meltdown.'

Dan said, 'So electricity could be a problem, and the length of the outagewould be determined by the amount of damage and the time necessary to repairit and verify that you had the controls operating again. What kind of problemswould be expected?'

'Loss of lighting will affect everyone immediately. Traffic signals willbe down, and there will be traffic problems, resulting in congestion for thosedriving and an increase in traffic accidents. Stores will be unable to operate,and groceries and other necessities may become something of a problem in aboutthree days or so. That is when the refrigeration will be lost completelyfor most people.'

'So they will have food and some refrigeration for at least three days beforethere start to be problems?'

'Not in many cases, but overall, that is when food and refrigeration willstart to become a problem for the majority. Electricity is a major problembecause many modern homes have become fully electric. With no power, theoccupants will have no light, no heat, no method of cooking, and no refrigeration. If there are no problems before the end of this year, the failures will occurat the beginning of January, when the weather will not be optimal for survival. Even a loss of power for three or four days on a widespread scale will beenough for some people to die from exposure, and the loss of life will increasedramatically as either the length of time increases or the outside temperaturedecreases.'

'What about other homes with different heat sources? Would moving in withyour neighbors increase survival?'

'To an extent, having more people would allow more heat and resources to beshared. But the problem is that even in homes with gas furnaces for heating,the loss of power will almost eliminate the ability to heat their homes becauseair circulation depends on electric fans. Emergency measures will be usedto allow cooking and heating, and there will be an increase in fires and deathsas a result.'

'What about other utilities?'

'Natural gas would depend upon the source and method of generating pressure. Service would be affected by the amount of computerized control, the methodof maintaining pressure, and the ability to maintain plant operations overthe long term without external sources of electricity. The same factors applyto waste water and water treatment facilities.'

'And the major problems associated with extended loss of these services wouldbe?'

'Natural gas would mean that nobody would be able to heat or cook, and wouldincrease the number of fires from accidents with emergency sources. The lossof water means that people will start to suffer dehydration. Sanitation willbecome a problem, and disease associated with lack of modern sanitation andwater treatment will escalate.'

'So, we've covered the loss of utilities and services. Are there any otherservices that would be affected?'

'Telephone service may be lost if they have computer problems. Police serviceswill have to be cut back to emergency services and handling major crimes. There will not be enough people to handle the problems. Fire services maydeteriorate if the water pressure drops. Garbage pick-up will probably beeliminated. The fuel will be required for more urgent emergency use.'

'Are there any other disruptions which will be almost certain?'

'Banks and financial institutions will be shut down. No records, and paperrecords are going to slow them down when the power comes back on. Peoplewill have difficulties because cash flow will affect their ability to getwhatever commodities or goods are available.'

Dan said, 'So, the bottom line is that we are looking at loss of utilities,severe financial disruptions, increased disease, deaths from exposure andother sources, property damage, and almost certainly some level of civil disturbances. And this is the current best case scenario?'

I said, 'Yes. But we have had some progress in making suggestions which wouldlimit the amount of damage or the length of its influence. How much influencethese suggestions will have depends upon the speed at which they are implementedand how widespread the response is. Most of our suggestions have been keptas simple as possible to allow them to be more easily used.'

'Such as?'

'Power plants can disconnect themselves from the grid. This will eliminatefailures from other plants causing damage to their equipment. The most immediateeffect will be to limit the number of switches which would need to be controlledor replaced in case a failure damages equipment.'

'That will limit damage, but you don't think that it will prevent power failures,do you?'

'No. There are too many systems with too many levels of control, and thecorrections to the software have been ignored for too long. The power failureswill occur. All we can do is save equipment and shorten repair and recovery.'

'What else can definitely be done?'

'Educate the public. Although some will ignore everything you do to get themto help themselves, we can increase the number who will store extra food,store water, and get some method of surviving worked out. The problem isthat many have been conditioned to expect the government to do these thingsfor them, and many of the others do not know how to plan for an emergencybecause they have never been forced to do anything like that before. Manyof those who are willing simply do not know where to begin.'

'This will work, but we have to get the facts out to the people without governmentor media interference. They will try to put a spin on the facts to keep everythingpolitically correct and consistent with officially recognized policy and theirversion of reality. This means that we will have to have several lists ofnecessary items and some description of how to use some of them, or how muchis required per person per time period to survive.'

Dan said, 'So, we need to get the information out, and to make sure that itis spelled out so there are no misunderstandings among the people who aretrying to prepare. How important is the manner of presentation to gettingpeople to prepare?'

I said, 'It is important, especially in our high risk target audience. Theseare the people who think that it is important to follow whatever the governmentsays, regardless of the circumstances. They don't believe that the governmentever makes mistakes, and they believe that the government will take care ofthem, no matter what.'

'The other high risk group consists of those people who will listen and wantto do something, but who are on a very limited income. We can have low cost,low tech solutions prepared, but they will need time to gather what they needat the pace they can afford to prepare. Time is really important for thesepeople.'

Dan said, 'Is there anything else that we need to discuss today, or will therest wait until our next weekly meeting?'

Rick said, 'Yes, there is. We have decided that we need to make additionalpreparations ourselves, Dan. We intend to inform the entire staff to allowthem to make their own preparations, and we want to use the corporate facilitiesto best insure our own survival here. That will allow us more time to organizeand coordinate our efforts on the project. We intend to expand the perimeterto allow us to bring our families and close friends who are willing to helpout. We want to set up a community adjacent to the facility and make surethat we have adequate supplies to become totally self-sufficient. We alsowant to make sure that we have a secure location.'

Dan said, 'All of you have decided to go along with this?'

Rick said, 'Yes. Everyone on the project will be relocating onto land asit becomes available. We have decided to use Lee's list as a basic outline,although some of us want to set up for more modern conveniences than Lee andNaomi. We believe that we can set up for electricity and some other conveniencesand maintain them ourselves. Lee has said that it can be done on smallerscales without all of the intricate control systems.'

Dan said, 'OK, I can see a lot of benefits. Lee, can we retrofit this entirefacility to be totally self-sufficient?'

I said, 'Yes. Sewage treatment may require the most extensive modifications. I believe that we can tap some natural gas wells to provide the power foryour heating, lighting, and refrigeration. In fact, putting in some gas poweredrefrigerators would make sure that you have some refrigeration for about thirtyyears. They tend to last longer than electric refrigerators. If you wereworried about the real long term, stock up on electric units and use themuntil they all wear out before starting to use the others.'

Dan said, 'How many people would we have to take off of the project to allowthem to rotate out and make their preparations?'

I said, 'None. We have talked it over, and Rick and I believe that with someof the other people not currently assigned to the project, Naomi can do mostof the work on picking out the necessary items. Instead of simply fillingour list, she will look for the supplies required for all of the people onthe list. You would have to approve the expenditures, other than those alreadyapproved by members of the team.'

Dan said, 'You mean that some of the group have already started having herstock up for them?'

I said, 'Yes. Rick has planned to be ready for years, and we have his listalready. Kristin has already been out looking with Naomi for some of thethings they are interested in which may require longer to find without specialordering them, since many of the special orders may not be ready in time inthe volume we may require. Danielle was supposed to accompany them, but Rickand I needed her to go over a few items we were discussing that day. Themore successful our project is, the more difficult it may be to acquire certainitems which are available in limited quantities. This difficulty will onlyincrease as time grows shorter and more people realize that we are going tohave some problems no matter what the government and the media say.'

Dan said, 'The company will authorize whatever is necessary. We will provideeach employee who wishes to stay on with a minimum kit, which we will defineafter I meet with you and whoever you suggest to work out what should be included. They are welcome to add whatever they want out of their own funds. For thosewho are willing to work until the trouble starts, but who do not want to stayhere, we will provide as much of a minimum kit as they are capable of carryingand are willing to take with them.'

Rick said, 'That sounds great. I'll get John, Danielle, Kristin, and Steve. Do you want to call Naomi, Lee, or is she out on a trip for you right now?'

I said, 'She's gone up to Cumberland to get a large order placed. She knowsthat they won't have enough large wood stoves, sewing machines, and spinningwheels in stock, and she wanted to get the order in as soon as possible. She was going to stop by a few places on the way back to get her orders infor poultry and livestock so they could be delivered in about eight weeks.'

Rick said, 'OK. We can be ready for that meeting in about thirty minutes,Dan. Is that good for you?'

Dan said, 'I'll see you in my office then.'

The meeting broke up quickly, with the groups returning to work on the worstcase and most likely scenarios. We discussed the list for a few minutes tosee how much agreement we had, then went to meet with Dan.

Chapter 10

Dan had some coffee and food set up in his office when we arrived. He smiled,and said, 'I don't necessarily think that this meeting is going to last thatlong, but I realized that we didn't have lunch during out earlier meeting. I guess that we don't really think about it much since Naomi made sure thatshe brought lunch in or had it fixed in the cafeteria when she was here. That woman sure can cook. I don't know how you manage to keep from gainingweight eating her cooking all the time, Lee.'

Rick said, 'He keeps busy, and he usually makes sure that we do, too.'

I said, 'Naomi is a good cook. She worries about taste, but she also worriesabout nutrition and making sure that it's low fat. It does keep you healthy,and I don't worry about going hungry. Which is one of the main points ofthis meeting.'

We were all sitting by now, and many of the group had already poured coffeeand grabbed a sandwich. We were all relaxed, but a few of the analysts werestill somewhat uneasy because they knew how much even a basic kit was goingto cost the company.

I decided to take the lead and allow Dan to set the pace for what we weretrying to do. 'Some of us are somewhat anxious about what you meant by aminimum kit, Dan. We know that the company's resources are limited, and theexpense outfiffing so many people can quickly build up. However, some ideaabout what you are considering as a budget would help us determine what themost essential items are. We are talking about the possibility of over 100employees, not counting any family or close friends who could also be usefulfor their own skills and talents.'

Dan said, 'We have some leeway, and our connections with the military andseveral military contractors don't hurt. We can get some surplus items whichshould be acceptable for our uses but which won't cost us much. I may evenbe able to get a few of the items or orders as repayment of favors. In anyevent, we realize that there isn't going to be much use for our services afterthis year unless we survive and make sure that as many others as possiblesurvive as well.'

I said, 'If you don't mind, I thought that we would have each team leadergo over their suggestions for everything in their particular area first. If you have any questions about a particular item, go ahead and ask, but Ithought we should discuss modifications to the list after everyone has finished.'

Dan agreed, and signaled that the presentation could begin at any time. Idecided to have John go first, since his list would probably be the shortest,and the least likely to have any questions or changes. I told John to goahead and go over his list.

John went over the basics of what we would need to maintain power, water,and utilities for the facility. It would require very little except to getour own facilities built so we could control them, and some sufficient forour needs should be available at low cost. With construction right away,they could be finished in about six weeks.

His basic list included water purification (chemical and physical), sanitation(facility hardware, toilet paper), lighting (alternate electric, emergency,oil lamps, oil, or rechargeable solar powered), and cooking (stove, fuel). He also made provisions for heating with wood or other resources.

Dan didn't question any of his items, knowing that we would require some formof utilities to allow a standard of living and to avoid disease problems. I told Kristin to go ahead and make her list. I knew that it would get Dan'sattention.

Kristin said that we would not have finances as such, but that we should havesome form of hard currency available, as well as items which would be valuablefor trade in case we needed anything that anyone else had and was willingto trade in return for goods or services which we would be willing to provide. Even if they were not for individual use, we should have gold, silver, andany commodities which would have value. This would include plastic jugs,since clean water could become valuable in the future.

Dan agreed that we would require these things, and that it would also makesure that the company had resources to rebuild and get started up again ifthe problem could be contained and life returned to some semblance of normality. I had Steve go next.

Steve surprised almost everyone when he requested at least one large, powerfultransmitter setup. He also wanted some communication system set up in thenew construction, as well as individual shortwave receivers and some portableshort-range transceivers. He also suggested completely stocking the garageto allow the vehicles to be used as long as possible. He also suggested thatwe invest in some horses and wagons, since they were not as susceptible tobreakdowns.

Dan seemed surprised that so much of the stuff so far was mainly for groupsurvival, and that the stuff for individuals was limited in quantity. I explainedthat we decided to keep it down to the essentials, which would be portableinside a large car or a wagon. The luxuries or extras would be provided bythe individuals, as well as anything they considered necessities which werenot already covered.

Danielle went next, and her list was much more extensive. She gave a listof drugs for everything from infections, burns, nausea, diarrhea, colds, flu,and headaches to scratches, cuts, abrasions, and poison ivy. She also includedvitamins, iron, iodized salt, bandages, feminine napkins (reusable), ace bandages,first aid tape, first aid kits, snake bite kits, splints, plaster for casts,surgical instruments, thermometers, stethescopes, blood pressure monitors,and various other medical and nutritional supplies.

Dan was impressed with the length and detail of the list, but didn't say anythingabout any of the items except the feminine napkins. His only comment wasthat he didn't realize that they made a reusable form of feminine napkins. He laughed when Rick reminded him that was why it was called the rag. Kristinblushed, then laughed when Danielle's stern gaze made Rick blush as well.

Rick recovered when I told him that he was up, and he began going over hislist. He covered shelter, food production, food preparation and storage,and general items that would be useful for everyday life. He said that hewould leave matters of security to me, as there were several concerns thatI would have to discuss with Dan.

Dan seemed pleased with the list, and was glad that it was not too expensiveby his estimation. He said, 'Well, that doesn't seem too bad, and it seemslike we have covered everything we'll need to maintain a standard of livingthat is acceptable to all of us. What do you think, Lee? Did we miss anythingexcept your security concerns?'

I said, 'First of all, I would make some suggestions concerning your tradegoods. For a combination of cost, space, and demand, I would suggest nitrogenpacked spices in tins, sugar, iodized salt, alcohol, medicine, tobacco, especiallycigarettes, dried foods, knives, chemicals for water purification, sewingneedles, sewing kits, and wooden matches. All are things that are small,portable, and hard to get once the initial supplies run out. Many are itemsthat are commonly overlooked, and are considered almost universally usefulor valuable.'

Dan said, 'I didn't even notice that many of those items were not even includedon our own basic list. Are they additions you intend to make?'

I said, 'Firestarters, sewing kits, matches, knives, and spices are on mylist. I would also include seeds for the plants you plan to grow for foodor use. If you plan to be totally self-sufficient, you would also have toinclude your livestock. You may be storing enough survival food to alloweveryone to eat for five or ten years, but you will eventually have to growyour own if everything does not return to normal.'

Dan agreed that all of the additional suggestions were acceptable. Then Icaught him with the one that he was expecting. I brought up the topic ofsecurity.

'The last thing I want to talk about during this meeting is security. Weneed to put up fencing, build some bunkers, set up some defensive architecture,and start training people to respond to an emergency breach of security. If you have everything you need to survive and there are starving people lookingfor what you have, they will soon own everything if you don't have the weaponsto protect what you have, the training to use those weapons effectively, andthe will to survive. If you, and everyone you have staying with you, arenot prepared to kill to defend your life and your property, all of your planningis just going to guarantee that someone will survive. Unfortunately, it willnot be you.'

Danielle said, 'Come on, Lee. That's a hard-line approach. Everyone doesn'tneed to be ready to become a killer for us to survive. They don't even haveto agree that killing is necessary to be able to contribute to the survivalof the community.'

I said, 'That is correct. In a nice society during peaceful times. However,in a survival situation that may last for years, the society is only as strongas its weakest individuals. If someone doesn't believe in killing, no matterwhat, they may not defend you or whoever they are with in case of an attack. Then we lose a valuable asset simply because someone did not do what a trainedadolescent can do competently.'

She said, 'But it may not be necessary. What happens if you accidentallykill someone who wasn't really intending to kill you or anyone else?'

I said, 'Those are nice sentiments for a civilized society, but they are notgoing to enhance your chances for survival. If someone is friendly, you don'tjust shoot them because you don't know them. But if someone is unfriendly,you don't refrain from shooting them just because you don't know for surethat they intend to kill you. You could be captured, beaten, raped, and subjectedto slavery by someone, and they still would not kill you. There are worsethings in life than a quick, relatively painless death, and I hope you neverhave to find that out by personal experience.'

Kristin had paled visibly as I talked, and Danielle, despite training as anM.D., was not far behind her. Several of the men in the room were also visiblyuncomfortable with the serious turn that the conversation had taken.

Dan responded, 'I believe that we all get your point, Lee, and I believe thatalthough it may take some of us some time to adjust to the requirements ofreality. I agree that we need to fully implement some form of security measuresright now, and that they will probably be strengthened in the future ratherthan being relaxed. What are your suggestions as to the probable amount andtypes of armaments that we will need for long term survival?'

I looked at Rick, and said, 'You still agree that the basic load we discusseda few years ago would be the minimum requirements to meet the varied possiblesituations that are likely to occur within the foreseeable future?'

Rick thought for a minute, then said, 'Yeah. I wasn't sure before, but thesims seem to indicate that you pegged it dead on, Lee. Go with the heavyfirepower and don't worry about the cost.'

Dan said, 'Lee, do I really want to hear this?'

I said, 'That depends on how much you really want to survive a worst casescenario. Danielle can confirm that even with nothing happening to them atall, some people go into shock and lose the will to live after a major catastrophe. If you can't get through to them, they will die no matter what you do tokeep them alive. But if violence and civil unrest becomes widespread andtotal anarchy prevails, you will only be able to count on yourself to getyou out of a life-threatening situation involving outsiders.'

Dan said, 'So we have to plan as if we had no chance of help ever arriving,and hope that we are wrong.'

'That is correct. Consequently, the following should be mandatory for eachman, woman, and child that you expect to have living in your community. A.22 caliber rifle, a .30 caliber or heavier rifle, preferably semi-automatic,and two pistols, at least 9 mm or heavier. There should be at least six sparemagazines for each weapon that uses magazines, and there should be at least5,000 rounds of ammunition for each weapon. You should have reloading suppliessufficient to allow you to reload each round of ammo five times, or be ableto manufacture the necessary parts.'

'If you are sincerely worried about the safety of your people in the eventof a firefight, you should also have enough kevlar or other body armor forall of the adults. Every person should have two or three large survival knives,and enough gear to survive all of the probable situations that they are likelyto encounter on a regular basis.'

Dan said, 'That is a lot of firepower. But, considering the alternativesif things get really bad, I would really consider a lot more than that ifyou thought that it would be necessary. If you decide that the worst caseis closer to what is probable, let me know as soon as possible, Lee, and we'llsee about adding whatever is required to make sure that there is no questionthat we are as prepared to survive the realistic possibilities as we can be.'

I said, 'I will let you know if it looks like we will need more items forsecurity, or if we have any other major changes.'

The meeting broke up, and we left to rejoin the rest of the group. We werenow working on the worst case scenario, and we knew that we could have evenmore effect on the outcome if we could convince people to follow some of oursuggestions.

Chapter 11

While the meeting in Dan's office was going on, Naomi was going through theCumberland General Store with a huge shopping list. She had to arrange withthe manager to have her purchases delivered, and set up a delivery date whichwould allow him to ship most of her current purchases at the same time. Anythingwhich would not be ready for shipment and delivery in two weeks would be deliveredin a batch two to four weeks later.

Not everyone in the group was willing to 'go primitive' as they called it,so Naomi only had fifteen woodburning cookstoves and twenty pot-belly woodburningstoves to get on her order. Seven of the cookstoves were of the largest twosizes available, and five of them were decked out with all of the extras.

She also had to buy about 100 oil lamps, and most of them were the antiquestyle with the brass reservoir instead of clear glass. She did go for modernwicks instead of the old cotton wicks. In addition, she bought about 200brass candle holders of various designs. We would have light as long as wehad oil, candles, or the ability to make them.

Naomi had a really hard time getting the hand pumps for the water. They weren'texpecting an order for 15 large exterior pumps and 25 interior kitchen pumpsall at one time. The manager looked at her like she was nuts, but didn'targue since she had already ordered enough that he thought her total ordermight go over $100,000. Never blow a guaranteed sale by calling your buyersome kind of a nut, even if they are.

It took her several hours to finish shopping and complete the items on herlist. She had everything from candle holders to woodburning cookstoves tooil lamps to baskets to spinning wheels to sewing machines. Everything wasmade to work without electricity, allowing us to live comfortably without'modern conveniences' that we couldn't control or operate without outsidehelp.

After leaving Cumberland, Naomi went to the heirloom seed supplier, and startedgoing through their current stock to get her order in. She needed enoughseed to start up about fifty homesteads growing large gardens and a few cropsfor storage, animal feed, and for marketing. She met Louise Myers, who ranthe small seed production facility, having initially started it as a smallcottage industry to help support her own homestead.

Naomi and Louise began talking about what she wanted, and decided that althoughLouise did not stock all of the varieties of vegetables that were on the list,Naomi would fill as much of her order for open-pollinated heirloom varietiesas she could. Louise gave Naomi the names and addresses of a few others whocarried the vegetables that she did not, and said that she would call andmake sure that her friends could help out. She didn't want Naomi drivingall that way if they didn't have the seed that she wanted, or if they didn'thave enough seed to fill her order.

They had tea and talked while Louise's friends checked their stocks and madesure that they had what Naomi needed. While they were waiting for them toreturn the calls, they went through Louise's greenhouses and nursery so Naomiwould be able to see how well the seeds grew. After about an hour of lookingover the nursery, Louise was able to get Naomi more than half of the itemson her list and had set it up so that she could pick up the rest of the seedsshe needed from two of her friends who also grew extra seed to sell and supporttheir homesteads.

Naomi drove over to the first place on the list. Emma Mae Hawking lived aboutforty five minutes drive from Louise's place. When Naomi arrived, Emma mether at the gate. She had a beautiful place, with a small stream running intoa pond behind her barn. The small corral held about a dozen goats, and chickenswere ranging around the yard looking for bugs and the occasional grain offeed that had been tossed out for them.

When Naomi commented on the appearance of her orchard, Emma commented thatit was worth the work of climbing and pruning just to get the fruits and nuts,but that her berry patches were easier to maintain. They walked through theorchard and out to the berry patches to view how they were set up. It waseasy to see the arrangement of the canes since they hadn't started to budout with their spring growth yet.

Naomi mentioned that she was trying to find some old or heirloom, open-pollinatedberries, but hadn't seen much that she was interested in buying because mostof the commercial growers wanted to sell varieties she wasn't interested in. Emma smiled and took Naomi into a large barn with a plexiglass covering onone side of the roof and on the south wall. Naomi was amazed to find thatthe barn had been converted into a giant two-story greenhouse, and was filledwith a large assortment of berry bushes, fruit trees, and nut trees.

Naomi said, 'This is wonderful, but you can't be intending to plant this muchon your property. You must have had a huge number of orders to have thismuch stock grown up and ready to ship out for spring planting.'

'Well,' Emma said, 'I did have several large orders, but they were canceledlast week just before I finished making arrangements to ship them. At leastI didn't send all that stuff out. I probably would have lost half of it beforethey finally returned the stuff to me. Now I just have to figure out howto get my catalogs out and let people know that I still have stock beforeplanting season is over.'

Naomi just grinned at her. 'I believe I can solve a lot of your problem foryou. If this stuff is ready to ship, I can have a truck here to load it upin just a few days. I can buy most of this stuff if you want to sell it. We need to set up a few small private orchards, some berry patches, and asmall scale commercial fruit, nut, and berry farm. Let's talk about how muchI need, what you have, and how much it is going to cost.'

The two of them went into the house to make the arrangements. After findingout that Naomi was buying the seeds and plants to set up homesteads for agroup of people who were setting up a community, they began to discuss whatthe homesteads still needed before they would be set up properly. While theywere talking, Emma gave Naomi the name of someone who raised goats and sheepfor sale, and specialized in old breeds which were popular with small subsistancefarmers and homesteaders. She promised to call him and let him know thatNaomi would be stopping by to check out his livestock in the next few days.

Naomi called the last person on her list, apologized for being delayed, andasked if it would be alright with her if she stopped by the next morning tosee about the seeds she was interested in. He was glad to hear from her,as he had been busy with a few chores and hadn't planned to be able to haveanyone tour his place that day. Both agreed that the next morning would bemuch better.

Now that Naomi had no pressing appointment, Emma invited her to stay for supper. Naomi started to refuse politely, buy Emma reminded her that this was herchance to taste for herself exactly how good the food produced by the seedsand plants she had just bought would be when she harvested it this fall. Naomi couldn't pass up an opportunity like that, but agreed to stay only ifshe could help in the kitchen.

Emma laughed. 'I didn't take you for some city folk who would want to sitand do nothing when they could be in the kitchen talking and cooking. Comeon, honey, the quicker we start, the sooner we eat.'

In no time they had a quick meal prepared. There was steamed squash, carrots,leftover beans and rice, a rabbit stew that Emma had canned during the summer,and cornbread. Dessert was stored fresh apples and homemade goatsmilk cheese,washed down with some homemade cider.

After cleaning up and doing the dishes, they sat at the kitchen table andtalked for a while. Everything was calm, and Naomi was surprised when Emmasaid, 'Honey, it ain't none of my business, and if'n you don't want to tellan old lady that she's a busybody, that's fine. But I have to ask, are yousetting up a bunch of people to make sure that they's out of them danged citiesbefore everything falls completely apart?'

'Yes, Emma, I am. My husband and I have planned for this for years, and sohave some of our friends. He's trying to work out some way to make sure peoplelisten and have some way to prepare before everything gets really bad. Youmight want to make sure that you are ready for the invasion, because he saysthat there is a chance that things will really get bad before they get better- if they ever get better.'

'Honey, your man sounds like he's got a good head on his shoulders. I kindafiggered that things would get bad, especially if all that technology theyhave in the cities broke down. Too many city folk don't know how to do anythingwithout their fancy gizmos. Besides, there are too many who don't wanna orwon't work now. It ain't gonna get any better when they find out they haveto do real manual labor if they want to eat.'

'Emma, I think that you will do fine. I know that you and your neighborswill help each other out, but please be careful. City folk might not do verywell in the woods, but there are a whole lot of them.'

'Naomi, honey, you are sure right about that. Now you take care. I'll keepyou and your husband in my prayers. You are right nice folks. Now you betterget on out of here if you want to get off of these back roads before dark. Folks that live here get turned around and lost if they don't watch it.'

Naomi thanked Emma for her hospitality and left. She drove into the nearesttown and got a room at the motel. After an early breakfast, she drove outto Clem's place. Louise had not given her a last name, and said that anybodyfor about thirty miles could tell her where Clem lived if she got lost.

Clem came off of his porch to greet her after she pulled into his drive. He shook her hand and told her that any friend of Louise and Emma was welcome,and asked her what kind of seed she was looking for. After listening to whatkind of vegetables she was looking to plant, he led her over to a large shed.

It was light and airy in the shed, but one wall was covered with drawers. Clem went over to the drawers and said, 'How much do you figure to plantthis year? And are you planting all of one crop in one place or do you planto do multiple plantings in a lot of smaller gardens?'

'Well, most of the stuff will be planted in small kitchen gardens or largegardens to support individual homesteads. Only a few crops will be plantedin large scale plots, and most of those will be staggered crops so we stretchout the harvest to allow more time for processing while the harvest is atits peak.'

'Emma was right. You do know enough to make a go of it. And you know enoughto stay away from them fancy hybrids. I think I have everything you wantedright here, but I don't have much in the way of asparagus. At least not foran order the size of yours, but you know that you can just grow it up andlet your beds increase and you'll have all the asparagus you want in justa year or two.'

'That's OK, that's one crop that is not a necessity, and we'll just appreciateit more when we finally get enough to start harvesting it.'

'Well,' Clem said, 'It's nice to meet someone who has a lick of sense leftin their body. Now let's see about getting all of your seed together, andsee if I can't find a little extra asparagus hidden around here somewhere. It would be nice if you could at least harvest a little this year for yourown personal enjoyment.'

After talking to Clem for a while, Naomi loaded the rest of the seed intoher truck and returned to the facility. When she arrived, we unloaded hertruck and listened to her story about her trip. She arranged to have a coupleof small trucks go up to Emma's to get the trees and bushes that she had purchased,and made sure that the delivery of the order from the Cumberland General Storewas scheduled correctly, and that a copy of the receipt was placed at thedelivery dock.

Then Naomi went to find Kristin and Danielle. They spent some time talkingtogether, and then told me that the three of them would be going out in aday or two to pick out some livestock. Kristin had grown up on a farm, andknew animals. Danielle wanted to go along to talk to the people selling theanimals so she would have a better idea how they handled any common healthproblems.

I knew that they both needed a break, and they both deserved one. Their teamswere both way ahead of schedule on modeling the problem we were working on,and we would probably finish well ahead of time as a result. Besides, itwould be nice for Naomi to have somebody else along on her trip.

Rick and I called it a day, and I took Naomi home to spend some time withher before she had to leave again in the morning. We didn't talk much, preferringto spend our time just being together and enjoying the quiet night in thecountry. I couldn't help but think that it would soon become hard to enjoyeven this simple pleasure.

Chapter 12

Naomi, Kristin, and Danielle left before seven the next morning. It was atwo hour drive to get to the Edwards farm, which is where they were supposedto check out some of the livestock they were looking for. Pete Edwards andhis wife Milly were waiting for them when they pulled into the drive.

After introductions were completed, Naomi explained what they were lookingfor and asked Pete if he had any suggestions as to what breeds would be bestfor their needs. Milly said that they only had small livestock, but thatthey would be able to help us find a few other breeds for diversity and knewsomeone who raised small cattle that would be perfect for small homesteadsthat couldn't use too much milk and cheese.

Pete said, 'Milly, why don't you show these ladies around, and I'll herd thesheep and goats up here so they can look over the ones we have for sale. Then we can give them directions to Roger's place so they can also look overhis stock. He raises sheep and goats, too, but he likes different breedsfor their meat and wool value. We mostly just use the dairy products, butwe get a little meat from the goats. Our sheep provide some wool, but wemostly raise them for meat.'

Naomi liked the look of the small farm. The pens were neat, indicating thatthe Edwards did indeed take good care of their stock, and finding hea&127;lthystock would be much more likely. She and Kristin talked about the farm setupwhile Danielle and Milly discussed the most common problems they had withtheir animals and how they treated them to save on the vet bills. By thetime they had completed their tour, Pete had the livestock herded into twopens near the barn.

Naomi and Kristin looked the animals over, and they were all in good shape. They began discussing how many they would need with Pete, and found out howmany were pregnant and when they would give birth. Pete assured them thatmost of the females were pregnant, and that it would still be safe to shipthem over the next two or three weeks. They decided that they would buy fortyfive nannies and five billies from his goat pen, and Pete split out the animalsthey had selected. They only bought twenty ewes and four rams from the sheeppen, since they intended to raise sheep more for wool than for meat.

Pete was happy to sell so much of his stock at a good price. Keeping so manyanimals over the winter was a gamble that had paid off because it was a mildwinter, allowing him to graze them and save on feed costs. He had plannedon selling off much of his extra stock soon, but had been worried about thelow prices being paid at the slaughterhouses and stockyards. He agreed tohave the animals they had selected ready for shipment in three days, whenthey would have several trucks pick up the animals and drop off the moneyfor the purchase. Pete made out a bill of sale and told Naomi that he wouldgive the receipt to the men who picked up the animals.

Milly gave Naomi the address and directions to Roger Harris' farm, sayingthat she should be careful. His animals were excellent, but Roger had a tendencyto try to overcharge when he thought he could get away with it. She alsotold them about Ellen Parker, who raised small cattle for meat and dairy. She didn't remember the breed, but they didn't get much more than 300 pounds,and they produced about five gallons of milk a day per cow. Even the bullswere very gentle and easy to handle. She wasn't sure, buy she thought thatEllen had been wanting to sell some stock. She gave Naomi the directions,and told her that she would call Ellen so she would be expecting them laterthat day.

Naomi and the others thanked the Edwards and then left for Roger Harris' place. Kristin used her cell phone to call her office and make the necessary preparationsfor having the livestock they had just agreed to purchase picked up in threedays. They spent the rest of the drive talking over the morning's eventsand how well things seemed to be going so far. Before they knew it, theyhad arrived at the Harris place.

A woman came out to greet them and introduced herself as Mary Harris, andsaid that her husband would be back shortly. One of the fences was down,and he was restringing wire to keep the stock from wandering off. Mary ledthe women around and showed them the stock they had for sale in the near pastures,then invited the women to lunch since it was taking her husband so long tofinish the fence. Naomi accepted, although Kristin and Danielle seemed reluctant.

They went into the large farm kitchen, and Naomi asked what the three of themcould do to make themselves useful. Mary put each of them to work, and theysoon had a huge meal prepared. Danielle asked about the size of the meal,and Kristin explained that on a farm, dinner was the main meal of the dayand was eaten in the middle of the day so they would have the energy to finishtheir chores before supper.

Just as the meal was almost ready, Roger returned from the fields. He apologizedfor delaying the ladies, but Naomi reassured him that they understood andthat they had already been shown the stock by his wife and given a tour ofhis farm. She was sorry to hear that his fence had come down, and asked ifany of his stock had wandered off or been injured. Roger told her that everythingwas alright, and thanked her for her concern. Then he went to wash up sothey could all eat.

Mary asked Naomi, as their guest, to say grace after they were seated. Naomiasked for blessing on the food, their hosts, and gave thanks for the hospitalitythey had received. Then the meal began. There were fried potatoes, eggs,sausage, green beans, corn, bread with butter, fresh cornbread, ham slices,and fried chicken. There was cold apple pie for dessert. Cheese was laidout on the table throughout the meal, along with apples and pears. Therewas fresh goat's milk, iced tea, and water to drink.

Naomi and Kristin dug in, and even Danielle was amazed at how much she ate. The food tasted fresh and wonderful, and being in the country air only enhancedher appetite that much more. After they finished, it didn't take long forthe four women to clean up and do the dishes. After a few minutes of restingand talking, Roger offered to show the women the stock and talk over whatthey needed.

They returned to the pasture, and looked over the stock. Roger pointed outseveral different animals, listing their relative merits as stock for food,dairy, and wool production. After hearing their plans, he suggested severalbreeds to complement the stock they had already purchased from the Edwards. Naomi and Kristin discussed it with Roger, and agreed that they would needabout thirty pregnant ewes and five rams to allow them to start several smallherds for homesteading and one larger herd for community efforts. They wouldalso require twenty nannies and five billies, and Roger selected twenty healthynannies, all of whom were pregnant.

Danielle asked why he had selected only pregnant females, and Roger said thatif you wanted to milk them, you would be able to get a lot of milk. If youdidn't, just let the kids nurse freely, and they would grow quickly, allowingyou to get more meat the first year or to increase the size of your herdsin less time than starting out with fewer pregnant females. Also, geneticdiversity would be increased because he had had his entire herd inseminatedwith sperm from several different billies this year, hoping to select fordesired traits out of any animals he didn't sell or kill for meat.

After about fifteen minutes of dickering, Naomi and Roger had agreed upona price that both agreed was fair. It only took a few more minutes for themto make the arrangements for the animals to be picked up and the payment delivered. Roger also gave them a bill of sale with the amount due at the time of pickup,and said that he would also send the receipt for the cash with the deliverydriver.

They chatted for a few more minutes, then said their goodbyes and thankedtheir hosts for their hospitality. Then they climbed into Naomi's truck andbegan the trip over to see Ellen Parker. Kristin called her office againand made the additional arrangements to have trucks sent to pick up the stockthey had agreed to purchase from Roger Harris.

While they were driving, Danielle started talking to Naomi about the livestockpurchases, and about how it would affect the people they had just met. 'Somehow,I just feel like we are taking advantage of these people. Here we are takingtheir livestock, which they may need to survive at the end of this year, andthey don't even know what is coming and don't have any way to prepare forit.'

Kristin looked startled and somewhat thoughtful about what Danielle had justsaid. There was some logic to what she was saying, and it would be immoralto just take advantage of someone like that, even if it would mean a betterchance of survival for herself and the others.

Naomi said, 'Don't be fooled by their appearances. Those people are sellingto us because they know that we know what we are talking about. They knowexactly what is coming, and they are doing what they can to make sure thatas many others survive as they can.'

Danielle said, 'What do you mean? How could they know what is going to happen,and how are they helping others to survive?'

Naomi said, 'Kristin, you grew up on and around farms. When do you sell offall of your excess stock, and why?'

Kristin said, 'You sell off excess stock before winter hits. You can't affordto keep too many animals over the winter because you can't afford the extrafeed for them. If you gamble on a mild winter, you keep more stock becauseyou can graze them outside and cut feed costs, but they still take more pasturein the winter because the grass isn't growing. If you guess wrong, you takelosses because you don't get a good price for your stock and you have to sellthem cheap or let them die anyway.'

Naomi said, 'And from the size of the barns and buildings you've seen on thefarms we visited, how much stock do you think they normally keep over thewinter, Kristin?'

'These are family farms or homesteads. We haven't seen any kids, and thecouples were both in their fifties or sixties, so their kids would be grown. I haven't seen any farm help at either place. I'd say that they were keepingabout three or four times the number of animals this winter than they normallydo. To do that, they would either have had to cut all sales and slaughterfor the last several years, or had to buy some extra stock and store as muchfeed as they could. They must have pushed themselves hard to maintain thatmany animals, even with this mild winter.'

Naomi said, 'And don't you think that they knew what kind of risk they weretaking to try to keep almost all of their animals for two years running tobuild up their stock?'

Danielle said, 'But that means they know what is coming. Why would they letyou take advantage of them like that and sell their stock so cheap?'

Naomi said, 'I didn't take advantage of them. I offered a fair price fortheir stock. They expected us to dicker, and I intentionally made sure thatthe price didn't drop too far while we were dickering. They realized it,and I'm sure that their friends called them and told them that we were goodpeople and we would treat them fairly. That means that we would be acceptedenough to ensure that they would also treat us fairly.'

Danielle said, 'What do you mean?'

'Well, in the country, you depend on your friends and neighbors, and theydepend on you. If you don't help out, word gets around, and you soon findyourself in a bind with no one to turn to. If you survive, good. They won'tdo anything to make it harder for you, but they won't help you, either. Itworks on the honor system.'

Danielle said, 'But the prices you got seemed pretty low to me.'

'The prices I paid were low, but that is because the entire livestock marketis depressed. One reason they didn't sell their stock last fall was thatthey wouldn't get enough to make any profit, so they had no reason not torisk the losses with a mild winter coming on. Maybe they could double thesize of their herds and still sell this year and make a profit. They soldenough of their stock to me to make a profit and give them some cash to getthe things they would need to help their own survival. They kept enough oftheir stock to still have more to sell or slaughter later this year and maintainthe numbers they needed to keep their herds intact and allow them to survive. I paid more for their animals than they expected to get with this market. They gave me chances to lower the prices while we were dickering, and I didnot take them.'

Kristin said, 'I was wondering about that. You seemed to take longer thanusual, and they seemed to be trying to come down somewhat because they likedyou.'

'I know. But they realized that I wanted to get a fair price, not the bestprice I could even if I had to cheat them. I wanted to help them get enoughcash to cover the things they would need cash for. They had what I needed,and I could trade them for what they needed without insulting them.'

Kristin said, 'I wondered why Roger picked out the animals he did after Millyhad warned you that sometimes he could try to take advantage of someone whodidn't know animals or how to bargain.'

Danielle said, 'What are you talking about?'

Naomi said, 'After he realized that we were intentionally paying more forthe animals than the lowest he was willing to go, Roger made sure that wegot at least half of the very best animals he had so we would have the bestbreeding stock possible without making it impossible for him to keep enoughto keep improving his own herd. He had the last laugh because he knew thatthere was no way we could object without insulting him.'

Kristin said, 'Sneaky, but you can't really complain about it, can you?'

Naomi said, 'Well, Milly did warn us to keep our eyes on Roger because hecould be sneaky when he wanted to be, didn't she? I guess he wanted to beable to say he pulled one over on us even after we did out best to make surehe didn't.'

All three laughed so hard that they almost cried. It was funny, when youthought about it, and it wouldn't get him into any trouble with his friendsfor taking advantage of people they all liked. They were still giggling andmaking suggestions on how to pay Roger back properly when they arrived atEllen Parker's place.

Although it was neat, Ellen's place was relatively small. It was fairly wellmaintained, but the house looked like it was a year or two past time for anew coat of paint and there were a few other minor things that looked likethey had just piled up faster than repairs could keep up.

Ellen was a small woman in her sixties, and as they walked around and talked,they learned that she was a widow and ran her homestead herself since herkids were grown and had moved away. They discussed the relative merits ofthe cattle that she raised, and she told them a lot about the various problemsthat could occur and how best to treat them with old home remedies. She evencovered a few remedies that Danielle said had just been proven to work onhumans.

Ellen said, 'Honey, no offense meant, but my granny proved those cures workwhen she kept my mama and her brothers and sisters alive, and my mama usedthem on me. My kids know about them because I used them to treat my kidswhen they got sick. I don't know if any of them remember how to cure a coldor fever since they moved to the city and started using a doctor for everysniffle they got, but they knew when they left here.'

Danielle blushed. Kristin said, 'You have to excuse her, ma'am. She's adoctor, and they brainwashed her so that she doesn't believe anything worksuntil they prove it in a lab.'

Ellen laughed, and said, 'A doctor. I do declare. I thought they all stoppedmaking house calls years ago.'

Even Danielle laughed so hard that she cried. When they were able to talkagain, Ellen said, 'How about I show you ladies my dairy barn and let yousee the stock?' With that, she led them into the largest building on thefarm.

Danielle and Kristin were both amazed at how much room went into keeping theanimals compared to the small area holding a compact, simple dairy. Everythingin the dairy was set up to be run by hand and had simple controls. They realizedthat this type of setup would run no matter what happened. When they sawNaomi's smile, they realized that she had already planned to set up at leastone dairy exactly like this, and that they would know everything there wasto running this kind of dairy before they left.

Danielle said, 'All of your stalls are full. Isn't it difficult to milk thatmany cows by yourself every day?'

Ellen said, 'Twice a day, and each cow produces at least three gallons ofmilk at each milking. I had a boy come in and work, but I don't need to rightnow.'

Danielle said, 'Why don't you need help right now?'

Ellen said, 'Because most of them aren't producing milk right now. I hadalmost all of my cows inseminated with sperm from four bulls from differentparts of the country. Believe me, it wasn't easy to find four unrelated bullsof this breed in this country because almost nobody raises them. But it didn'tcost almost anything because I traded sperm from my bull so they could improvetheir herds too.'

Naomi said, 'We want to set up between ten and twenty small homesteads andat least one small dairy. We won't be using any cattle for meat for the firstseveral years because we have other sources of meat. How many cattle wouldwe need to allow about eighty to one hundred families survive and become selfsufficient?'

Ellen thought for a minute, and said, 'Well, if you don't mind having to buildyour herds, I have enough extra stock here. But you won't get much milk untila couple of months after they have their calves. Of course, you will getyour herd to at least double in size by the end of the first year. Some ofmy cattle do have a tendency to produce twins. I'd say that you might wantto buy about thirty pregnant females and three bulls. Some of the offspringwill be bulls, and you'll want to use them on your herds after they grow upto increase the genetic diversity.'

Naomi said, 'That's about the number I thought we'd need. How about we seeif we can come to an agreement that we both like?'

Ellen smiled, and the dickering began. After ten minutes, the price was agreedupon, and they had made arrangements for the animals to be picked up. ThenNaomi asked Ellen if she would be willing to help them get a small dairy likeher own outfitted and set up.

After more dickering, she convinced Ellen that she would be doing a greatfavor to the group. Naomi had agreed to pay her an extra $300 for actingas a consultant. She had also convinced Ellen to allow her to send some companyemployees up here to do repairs that were just too much for one person tokeep up with. She would make sure that all of the buildings were structurallysound, paint the house, reinforce some damaged fences, and make sure thatevery roof on the property was watertight and would remain that way for yearswith normal wear. Ellen's neighbors would watch out for her, and she wouldhave a proper home to live in as she grew old.

Chapter 13

The next meeting was on the 13th. We all got together in the conference room. Dan was a few minutes later than everyone else because of a few phone calls. He was surprised to see Naomi because he thought that she was out lookingfor things that we would need. I told him that Naomi's report would be first. In fact, it would be the only thing we had planned to discuss at this meeting,since we were working up the final data on the worst case scenario and didn'twant to go over that until we were finished.

Naomi began the meeting by relating what had happened on each of her tripsto buy the items we had decided were necessary. Dan was impressed with theamount of things she was able to purchase at the Cumberland General Store,and with the deals that she had been able to work out with the manager becauseof the volume of her order and using our own trucks to pick up the order insteadof having it delivered or shipped.

Naomi then covered her seed buying trip, describing how Louise had her homesteadset up and covering how much seed, and what types, she was able to buy. Thenshe described Emma's place. John was interested in how she had her orchardsset up because there was some possibility that we would be irrigating ourorchards and berry patches. Dan was amazed at the variety and quantity ofseeds she had obtained, and was elated when he found out how many fruit andnut trees of different varieties that she had been able to obtain, and howmany berry patches would be possible.

When Naomi covered the seed purchases she had made from Clem, she pointedout that we now had all of the basic seed variety that we had decided upon,and that we had more of the seeds than we would need to start planting, givingus some extra seed as a safety precaution. She also pointed out that allof our seed was grown organically, and that it was open pollinated.

Dan said, 'What is so important about that?'

Naomi said, 'Well, it means that our seed will grow true. That is not thecase with hybrids. Also, it means that the parent stock grows without chemicalswhich we will not be able to produce on our own. And that the crops willgrow without fertilizer and will be at least somewhat disease resistant. These are varieties that have been grown for over 100 years, and the diseasesstill haven't killed them off.'

Then Naomi covered her trip with Kristin and Danielle to look at livestock. She described each of the places, the people, and how much and what typeof livestock she had purchased at each place. She also told Dan about thedeal she had made with Ellen Parker.

Rick said, 'I knew it. Earth Mama strikes again.' and began laughing.

Dan said, 'What are you talking about?'

Rick said, 'Saint Naomi, patron of stray animals, small children, the homeless,weak, and oppressed masses. Seriously, she has a soft spot for children,animals, and old people.'

Dan said, 'And she's taking advantage of me by making me pay for her charitableacts?'

Rick said, 'No. She got you very good deals. She might have gotten betterdeals, but she would have been taking advantage of the people, and they wouldhave resented it sooner or later. Now, there is a possibility that some orall of these people may be willing to join us if things get really bad.'

Dan said, 'Won't that strain our resources? Lee, you were the one who madethe point about allocation of resources.'

I said, 'If things get really bad, they would be a major asset to our community. Although most of them are elderly, they are all healthy enough to continueto work their own homesteads, and that is hard physical labor. They havedecades of experience surviving under the conditions you are talking abouthaving to learn how to survive in, and they have vast experience in growing,maintaining, and harvesting and storing the crops you intend to grow. Theyknow about the care and husbandry of the animals you bought from them.'

'If they moved in, you would have to set them up with some land and shelter,both resources you have in relative abundance. In exchange, you would getmore people with the skills you want to increase your chances of survival. Also, they would probably bring more with them in the way of seed, equipment,crops, and livestock. All of these assets would eventually be inherited bythe community in one form or another. If you can think of a down side, Iwould like to hear it.'

Dan said, 'I see your point. They dealt fairly with us, and have proven themselvesto be friendly. We have also proven our good intentions to them, and haveestablished a sort of working trust to allow possible dealings in the future.'

Naomi said, 'They may wish to trade with us in the future, or may be ableto direct others to us who are looking for something specific for which theyhave something of value to trade. Since they like us, they would not intentionallytell someone who is violent and aggressive where we are or even that we exist. These are not the kind of people who would intentionally turn their backon a friend in need if there was some way for them to help out.'

Dan said, 'So, where do we have all of the livestock?'

Naomi said, 'We have converted a warehouse into a temporary barn while weare finishing construction of the homesteads. Another warehouse is beingconverted into a permanent facility for housing the dairy herd for the communityand part of it is being set up as a small scale dairy. We can produce milkand cheese easily, and it will be safe for consumption.'

Dan said, 'How many animals do we have right now, and how many will be storedin the community barn once we set up the homesteads that want animals?'

'We have a total of sixty-five nannies and ten billies. Fifty eight of thenannies are pregnant, and should give birth in a few weeks. We have fiftyewes and nine rams. All of the ewes are pregnant, and about half should givebirth to twins. We have thirty cows, and three bulls. All thirty cows arepregnant. We think that five of them are carrying twins.'

Dan said, 'That seems like a lot of animals. How many will there be leftafter we set up the homesteads?'

'The homesteads will get thirty five of the nannies and two billies. Manyof them want to trade a new female kid for a young billy if none of the kidsthey have are male. They will also get thirty ewes and five rams. A lotof them want to see if they can get the wool and meat production themselves. They will also get eight of the cows, and are willing to trade for inseminationor a young bull if they have female calves.'

Dan said, 'So, what does that leave us with in the way of production for thedairy?'

'Fifteen milk goats and twenty two milk cows.'

'Will they produce enough to bother with?'

'They should produce between fifteen and thirty quarts of goats milk per day. This means about four to eight gallons of milk or four to eight pounds ofcheese daily. The cows should produce over 100 gallons of milk a day, whichcould be converted into 100 pounds of cheese per day.'

'This does not include the milk produced by the goats we are raising for meat,and completely ignores the sheep, which can be milked if desired. The sheepare generally raised for meat and wool. The goats also can be used for feltand skins.'

Rick said, 'What about poultry?'

'They will be bought later when we have the facilities converted to housethem properly. Most of the homesteads chose to raise some poultry themselvesfor meat and eggs, so the quantity required if you want to make some formof community flock would not be too great. I would need to know before Ifinalize my purchases, although you could probably trade for some of the birdsraised on the homesteads if you changed your mind at a later date.'

John said, 'What about pork? You haven't said anything about pigs, and Iknow that they weren't on Lee's list.'

'We did not want to raise pork ourselves. If you want to try, all we needto know is how much space and effort you want to commit, and how much porkyou want to be able to produce. We can work out the best two breeds of hogsfrom that an get enough to set up the pork production facility. As far asI know, none of the homesteads has indicated that they wanted to raise hogs.'

'Since most homesteads that do raise hogs only get one or two piglets, raisethem for the year on scraps, and then slaughter them, they do require an outsidesource for the piglets they get each year. This may be a source of tradematerial both in the live and processed form in the event that things becomereally bad during the next year or so.'

Dan said, 'Well, Naomi, you have done an excellent job so far. What are yourplans for the next week or two?'

Naomi said, 'To quit my previous job, sell our house, pack our things, andmake the move down here complete. Lee has found the property for our homestead,and he will have the storage space for our belongings secured before I getback. Then I will supervise the remaining construction of our homestead toverify that everything is being done according to our specifications.'

Dan said, 'Isn't all of that taken care of by the contract and the specific,detailed instructions and blueprints that Lee gave me already?'

I said, 'I once knew a contractor who built a brand new research buildingto exact specifications. It was a thirty million dollar project that swelledto forty million dollars and took a year to complete. Among some of his mistakeswere things like installing ten amp wire for a circuit that specifically calledfor twenty amp wire. He said that nothing drawing twenty amps was being puton the circuit. We pointed out that the drying oven drew fifteen amps ona continuous basis, and was kept on for weeks at a time. He said that theten amp wire would hold a fifteen amp peak surge, so it was safe.'

'Of course, this is the same idiot who installed a $100,000 autoclave thesize of a room backwards and didn't discover his mistake until the basementand first floor had been built around it and there was no way to take it outand turn it around. It never was used because it wouldn't work at all.'

Dan said, 'I see your point. Make sure they don't cut corners when you arepaying for the exact specifications.'

Naomi said, 'Precisely. The contractor doesn't live there, so he doesn'thave to worry about whether or not the roof is going to fall down on his headduring the middle of the first bad thunderstorm.'

Dan said, 'OK. Have a safe trip, and we'll be looking forward to hearingfrom you on a daily basis at least. I don't know about Lee, but most of uswill miss having you around here, Naomi.'

Rick smiled, and quipped, 'Yeah. Especially around lunchtime.'

Dan laughed, and said, 'Well, if there's nothing else, let's get back to work.'

Naomi said, 'Well, Dan, there is one more thing. Knowing that I wouldn'tbe here for a while, I made lunch so that everyone would have one more day before the withdrawal symptoms set in. I know how addicted some of you havebecome to good, Southern cooking.'

Dan beat Rick in the rush to the buffet table the cafeteria staff had broughtin while Naomi was talking, but he didn't beat him by much.

Chapter 14

Naomi drove back home the next morning, leaving her cats with Lee and Rickat Rick's house. She took her time, arriving home during the evening. Sheate, cleaned up, and then went to bed. She was going to be busy for the nextfew days.

When she woke up the next morning, Naomi went through the entire house tocheck and remind herself what remained to be done. She took a pile of emptyboxes from one of the closets, and started assembling them. Then she startedpacking the boxes with the few things inside that room which were not alreadypacked. She and Lee had been planning for years, and they had already packedmost of their belongings in anticipation of their imminent relocation. Afterpacking, labeling, and sealing several boxes, the room was completely packed.

Naomi fixed herself a light breakfast. Powdered milk and pancake mix to makepancakes. Tang to make orange juice. Frozen sausage in the microwave. Instantgrits. Hot herbal tea. Everything was still just as they had left it afterLee had received Rick's call. Other than a few fresh vegetables, they hadnot had any perishables other than a small freezer of convenience foods intheir house for months. They had been experimenting with the instant andsurvival food to determine which ones they wanted to stock when they relocatedto their homestead.

After cleaning up the breakfast dishes, Naomi packed a few more boxes withodds and ends. She made sure that she remembered to label the boxes and writeout a description of the contents on the card that was attached to each box. Finally, when it was around nine o'clock, she locked the house and droveover to her boss' office. She went in, picked up her last paycheck, and thenfound her boss. He was happy to see her until he found out why she was there.

Naomi explained that her husband had received a sudden job offer which requiredrelocation, and that she had used her vacation time to let them verify theoffer and find out what the salary was. Her boss told her that he would doubleher salary if it would help, but she told him that the job was several statesaway. Since it would last at least a year, they decided not to keep theirseparate jobs. Lee had arranged for her to be employed at the same place,and Lee's salary was at least five times her current salary without incentivebonuses for beating certain deadlines.

Her boss agreed with her that it would be impossible for him to try to competewith a job like that, and wished her luck. He told her to give him a callif she ever needed a job reference, and that she would always be welcome tocome back to work for him if things didn't work out with the new job.

Naomi smiled sadly, and said, 'I appreciate that, but if things don't workout well with Lee's new job, I don't think that either of us will be veryworried about going back to work right away.' She didn't notice the strangelook her boss gave her.

Naomi said, 'Mr. Wrigley, you've been a pretty good boss, and a fairly closeacquaintance. You always make sure that whenever there is a problem, youmake sure that you do everything that you possibly can for your employees. If you don't have any major plans during the holidays, why don't you packup your family and take an extended vacation at your cabin by that mountainlake?'

He said, 'You know, you're the third person to tell me that in the last fewweeks. Is there something going on that I'm missing, Naomi?'

'Nothing definite, sir, but you might just want to consider going on a huntingand fishing vacation. Spend some time with your family. Maybe you can makesome special memories with your kids before they all go back to college ortake off for college. Once college starts, you hardly ever see them, it seems.'

'You're right about that. We hardly ever see our oldest girl since she wentoff to school. Maybe I'll take your suggestion and schedule a real good vacationduring their winter break. We haven't gone on a real family vacation in years. So, where did you and Lee get hired?'

'At a small private research firm in Tennessee. They do a lot of contractwork for the government, and one of Lee's friends has been trying to get himto go to work for them for years.'

'Well, Naomi, I'm not surprised. Lee always impressed me as a man who knewwhat he wanted to do and knew how to get it done. I always wondered why hewasn't working for someplace like that long ago. I know he's intelligentenough, and the fact that his friend has been trying to get him to accepta job like that for years only makes that even more obvious.'

'Maybe it was because Lee always thought that there was too much politicsinvolved in keeping a job like that for very long. And he believes that wheneverreality and politics move in conflicting directions, as long as politics dictatesthe direction that government takes, the country and the people will be forcedto pay the consequences for the actions of the politicians in charge.'

'You know, Naomi, I never thought about it like that. And the strange partis that it is almost exactly the same as one of the basic tenets of business. It doesn't matter how well you think a product will do, or what you thinkthe public will buy. The bottom like is that your profits depend on howwell your product sells. Reality is the bottom line if you want to stay inbusiness.'

'Thank you for seeing me, Mr. Wrigley. I must go because I have some appointmentsin the next few hours, and I have to make arrangements to sell our house andmove all of our possessions to our new home. Take care of yourself.'

After leaving her old boss, Naomi drove down to the first realtor's officeon her list. She arrived ten minutes before her appointment was scheduled. After waiting for a few minutes, the realtor showed her into his office andintroduced himself as Jeff Green.

'Mr. Green, I would like to sell our house. I will not sign to deal exclusivelywith you, and I require a buyer to have his final offer in and be ready toclose in two weeks. If you are not up to the task, tell me right now andI will leave and find someone who is.'

'Mrs. Braun, I don't work with someone unless I have an exclusivity agreement. It takes time to sell a property, to find the people who are right for it. It also takes time to deal with the banks, to do the property checks, thingslike that.'

'You mean someone you can convince that the place is perfect for them. Andas for the banks, you only have to deal with whoever is buying the place. I have the title with me, and there are no liens. If you aren't good enoughto sell the place before your competition can, you are wasting my time. Timeis money. Goodbye.'

'Wait! I'll see what I can do, but I won't make any promises.'

'Well, if you sell the place, you make a commission. If not, you wasted yourtime instead of mine. Maybe that will give you some incentive to either sellthe place or to not waste my time showing the place to people who are notinterested in something with that description.'

'Mrs. Braun, remind me never to make the mistake of trying to pull somethingover on you. I will see what I can do. When will you be available to showthe house if I do have someone interested?'

'I have some appointments today, and the movers will be there tomorrow toship most of our belongings to our new home. I will be here for several daysto two or three weeks at most. After that, any business will be handled throughour attorney for any legal matters. A neighbor will have the keys and willbe available to show the home to any serious inquiries. Here is a descriptionof the house, the address, the schematic of the floor plan, and a list ofeverything that is staying with the house. The asking price is listed atthe bottom. It is lower than the house and property are worth. That is theamount we expect to receive after closing costs and your commission are paid. You do the math, and you will know how much your time will be worth.'

'Yes, ma'am. I'll be by to look at the place about eight o'clock the dayafter tomorrow, if that is alright with you.'

'That's fine. I'll be there, and the place will be ready to show.'

Naomi left and went to six more realtor's offices. Four of them refused towork with her, and she left their office without wasting any more time. Theother two were more interested in the possibility of a large commission thanthey were in worrying about whether or not someone else would be able to finda buyer before they did.

That night, Naomi finished packing and labeling the rest of the boxes in thehouse. Then she ate a light supper and went to bed. After her breakfastwas finished, the movers showed up. She had them load all of the furniture,all of the packed boxes, and everything else in the house that was supposedto be moved. Then she had them load all of the boxes in the garage and thestorage shed. When they left, there was almost nothing inside the house.

Naomi had just enough left in the house to allow her to live there. She hada refrigerator, food, a microwave, the stove, and some backpacking cookwareand utensils. There was also a sleeping bag, some books, and a few thingsthat she would be transporting down to our new home in her truck and a trailerthat she would be hauling.

Naomi had also listed the house in several different directories that listedhouses for sale by the owner. Now, she spent her time organizing the itemsthat she still wanted to order from some of her catalogs. With the sale ofthe house and Lee's contract, they were going to have a lot of money to spendon things that they were not sure that they would be able to afford before.

Mr. Green showed up and looked over the house. After his inspection, he agreedthat the house was well worth enough to cover the asking price. He was sosure of his ability to get more than the asking price out of the house thathe decided to risk his own money in order to make even more profit on thesale. He asked Naomi if she would agree to sell the place to him so he couldtake his time and sell the property for more than what she was asking. Ifso, he would have the money for her the next day. He would pay her the amountshe had said, pay the closing costs, and pay for all of the searches thatshe had already had done to provide proof of clear title to the property.

Naomi agreed to meet him at his office the next morning to close the deal. After she met with him, she called the other two agents and told them thatshe might have a buyer who would be willing to close the deal tomorrow. Ifshe closed the deal, she would call them and let them know as soon as thedeal closed.

Naomi spent the night packing the rest of the things that she would be takingwith her. She relaxed with a long, hot bath, then went to bed. The nextmorning, she got up and made breakfast. After cleaning up her breakfast,she packed the utensils and got everything ready to go. Then she left forher meeting with Mr. Green.

When she arrived, Green met Naomi and took her into his office. Naomi's attorneyhad already arrived, and they all went over the papers. After everythingwas signed, Naomi signed over the deed to the property. She took the certifiedcheck for the property, and their deal was concluded. She told him that shewould drop off the keys later that day or the next morning after she had allof the utilities transferred into his name or disconnected, whichever he wanted. She also had some last minute items to load into her truck and trailer beforeshe left.

Naomi paid her attorney, got a receipt, and thanked him for his services. Then she got into her truck and left to run some errands. Her first stopwas the bank that issued the check.

When she got to the bank, she went inside and cashed the check. It took afew minutes because they had to verify her ID and they were shocked to findout that she wanted to get the money in cash, with most in small bills. Finally,they brought the money out to her and she put it into a small bag after countingit. Then she left the bank.

Naomi's next stop was at a jewelry shop. She bought several thousand dollarsworth of silver and several thousand dollars worth of gold. After finishingher transaction, she loaded her purchase into her truck.

Her next stop was another coin dealer, where she purchased more silver andgold. Naomi now had about as much as she was supposed to buy before she left.

Her next stop was WalMart. She purchased several rifles and all of the ammunitionthey had for the rifles she had bought. After loading her purchases intothe back of her truck, she left.

Her last stop was one of the gun shops. She bought several more rifles anda large amount of ammunition for them. She also bought several scopes forthe rifles. Before she left, she added several sets of cammies and a lotof reloading supplies, including gunpowder and bullets.

After she drove home, Naomi canceled all of the utilities. She finished loadingthe rest of her belongings into her truck and the trailer. She checked thehouse one last time, locked it up, and drove over to the realty office. Shedropped off the keys and told Mr. Green that the house was all his and everythinghad been taken care of. She had already mailed her change of address formfrom Tennessee, and all of her final bills would be forwarded.

On her way back to Tennessee, Naomi made stops in each large city and mademore purchases of gold and silver. By the time she reached Rick's house,she had converted at least half of the money from the sale of her house intogold and silver.

When she arrived, Lee and Rick were home. They were surprised to see herbecause she had not called to tell them that she would be back early. Rickwas surprised at the amount of gold and silver she had purchased until sheshowed him how much cash was left over from the sale of their property. Rickwas drooling when they started unloading the truck and he saw all of the newrifles that she had brought as a surprise for her husband. He was reallysurprised when she picked up a .30-06 and scope and handed it to him, simplysaying, 'Thanks for putting us up here, Rick. This is for you. I know howit is with boys and their toys. Have fun with it.'

Rick said, 'Thanks. This is a beauty, and this is the perfect scope. Thanks,Naomi.'

We finished unloading the truck and trailer and stored all of the items ina secure area inside Rick's house. We all went in and Naomi told us all abouther trip. Rick laughed when Naomi told us how she handled the real estateagents. He was amazed at how much we had gotten out of our place, especiallysince the real estate agent bought the house himself. And he could not believehow fast we had sold our place.

Naomi laughed, and said that the secret to selling the place so quickly wassome of the additions we had made to the house. Rick asked her to explainwhat she meant.

'Well, Rick, one major selling point that wasn't listed was the fact thatwe had reinforced certain parts of the house with materials which would notonly not burn well, but which increased structural integrity.'

'You mean you did the concrete, rebar, and stone reinforcement to the entirefirst floor of the house and to the garage?'

Naomi smiled sweetly and said, 'Something like that. And there was a smallstorage room that was fireproof so that Lee could protect his toys properly. Some people appreciate the extra little homey touches.'

We all laughed and sat down to dinner. The evening passed quickly, and soonit was time to go to bed. Tomorrow was another working day, and it wouldstart early and last for a long time.

Chapter 15

Lee, Rick, and Naomi spent the next day going over their results to date andorganizing for the meeting with Dan. Lee had decided that this meeting wouldbe the one in which they detailed the worst case scenario. They had somebasic work done on the possible ways to decrease the amount of damage andsuffering, and it was complete enough to allow them to make a comprehensiveand coherent presentation. It would take Dan about a week to go over theprintouts and come to grips with the results of their study. By then, theywould have finalized their other suggestions and should be almost ready topresent the most probable scenario, and steps to inhibit the escalation ofdamage and suffering.

Naomi was aware of the extent of the destruction which Lee had envisionedas the worst case scenario, and had had years to prepare herself mentallyto face it. She had even been there when changes in society or technologyhad allowed Lee to modify his estimates. There were a few times when theycelebrated a change for the better, but those were drastically outnumberedby the times when the changes had made the outcome worse. Over the years,the damage had almost doubled from Lee's original estimates that they hadfinalized about five years ago. Things did not look good.

The three of them discussed the entire scenario in detail, with Lee allowingeach of them time to ask questions and make comments. Rick sometimes askedabout things which might modify the outcome, but most had already been accountedfor in the calculations. Many of the others had been negated by social ortechnological changes in other fields. Naomi did remind Lee of a few thingswhich he had discussed with her before, and some of them did affect the outcome. By the time they had finished going over everything they could think of,the outlook had improved, if only marginally.

Lee had intentionally refrained from going over the worst case scenario withRick until Naomi had finished and returned. He knew that Rick would pickup on how serious it was when he saw how quickly they had sold their propertyand how much Naomi had immediately spent to stock up on items they personallyconsidered necessary for survival which had not been on the list that Danwas filling. Lee hoped that this would at least subconsciously help Rickto mentally prepare himself for today's bottom line.

They spent the afternoon discussing the results, helping Rick through hisshock until Lee and Naomi were both satisfied that Rick had fully graspedand accepted the situation. He would be critical at tomorrow's meeting becausenobody else in the group had been aware of the scope of the worst case scenario. There were a few international factors which had not been considered in theirinvestigation into the domestic situation, and they could have a severelynegative influence on the outcome.

Rick explained to Lee that he wanted Danielle to come over and be thoroughlybriefed on the changes immediately. The results might shock her, but theymight need her tomorrow to be fully prepared and functional in case somebodyfreaked out or had a heart attack. Lee and Naomi agreed, and made some foodand tea for everyone while Rick called Danielle.

It took Danielle twenty minutes to drive to Rick's house from her team's office. They had been finalizing the details of their section of the report for tomorrow'smeeting with Dan, and she wasn't happy about being interrupted before theycould make everything as accurate as possible. She did agree when Rick toldher that both he and Lee thought it was important.

When Danielle arrived at Rick's, she was surprised to find Naomi back fromher trip already. She hadn't even been gone a week, and she was supposedto pack their house, move their belongings, sell their house, and take careof all of the details associated with moving and selling a house. It justwasn't possible for her to have had everything completed and be back in lessthan a week.

Rick took her to one side and said, 'You remember when you asked me abouthow Lee thought, and I told you that you didn't want to know?'

Danielle said, 'Yes, Rick. I remember. You said something about having hada glimpse at hell, and that you preferred to be able to sleep at night. Thatwas one of the strangest comments that I had ever heard you make in all theyears that I have known you. I thought that you were just trying to blowme off by making me think that it was something so secret that I didn't wantto open a can of worms and cause trouble for no reason.'

'Danielle, we both know that you are still dying to know what I was talkingabout. If you weren't half convinced that I was exaggerating or that it wasnone of your business, your curiousity would be killing you. You don't letgo when you think that someone is hiding some fact that might affect yourresults.'

'Guilty as charged. My curiousity has gotten me into trouble before. Doesthat mean that I'm going to get myself into trouble again now?'

Rick said, 'Well, that depends on how you define trouble. Unfortunately,it has become necessary for you to find out exactly what I was talking about. I only wanted to warn you ahead of time so that you could prepare yourselfas much as possible. Lee wants to go over the details of the worst case scenariowith you today so that you will be prepared for everything and you won't haveany surprises at tomorrow's meeting.'

Danielle said, 'Well, then, let's get to it. I've been working on the finaldata for my section, and I want to hear how close his numbers are since hehasn't even looked at our data for over a week. Some of them are pretty bad,but some of the preparations we have suggested would cut the numbers downsignificantly if enough people were prepared in advance.'

They sat down around Rick's table, and Naomi made sure that everyone had somethingto eat and to drink before they started. Rick ate quickly. It didn't takeDanielle long to wish she had followed his example. The food was good, butfive minutes into Lee's presentation, she suddenly lost her appetite.

Lee took his presentation slowly, making sure that Danielle was followingwhat he was saying and was not lost in thought over the implications of somethingthat he had said previously. Even so, it only took an hour and a half topresent everything. Danielle thought that she had been prepared for the meeting,but she was stunned by what Lee had calmly and methodically laid out. Sherealized that he had intentionally withheld some of the more graphic detailsthat were not directly related to the outcome simply because they didn't affectthe outcome and reminding people of those details would only impair theirability to function and try to work out better solutions to the problem. Rick had been right about one thing. She didn't expect to get much sleeptonight after a guided tour through hell.

The four of them discussed the manner of presentation, the results, and theassumptions they were making in analyzing their data. Within the acceptedmargins of error, they all agreed that while some of the numbers or percentagesof probability might change slightly, the scenario was as accurate as couldbe predicted that far in advance. Social changes and reactions would changethe results, and they could factor those in and modify their predictions accordingly,but without major changes in the next few months, they had a picture of whatthe people of this country were facing.

Naomi said, 'You reacted pretty well, Danielle. Rick has had some idea foryears and time to prepare, and he was almost as shocked as you were by today'smeeting.'

'Well, my medical training has helped me learn to control my emotions to dealwith an emergency situation. That helps a lot, but eventually you have tolet them out and deal with them after the emergency is over and you have thetime. It's the only way to deal with the stress.'

'Yes, it can be stressful to think about at times. But since there is nothingyou can do to prevent it, you just have to accept the facts and work to prepareas much as you can in order to survive.'

'How do you handle it, Naomi? I mean, how do you sleep at night and thenwake up and be so friendly and cheerful to people you don't even know?'

'Well, I have Lee to lean on, and my faith in God. After that, I just takeone day at a time and deal with today's problems. Other than making generalplans, I can't deal with tomorrow's problems until they get here, so I don'tspend all of my time worrying about them.'

Danielle said, 'What about you, Lee? With what you know, how do you sleepat night? Rick said that you have been planning for this for years.'

I said, 'I sleep very well at night. I have been planning for years, andI have done everything I could to prepare anyone who would listen. My wifeand I are almost completely prepared, and by the end of this year we willbe able to support ourselves for the rest of our lives without ever workingfor anyone else again.'

'But how do you sleep with all the bad dreams and nightmares you must haveafter thinking about all of this, especially since the project began?'

'I don't have any bad dreams or nightmares.'

'But some of your dreams must be affected by your work.'

I said, 'I don't dream. I haven't had any real dreams in over ten years.'

'Everybody dreams, Lee. You have to in order to retain your sanity. Youmust mean that you just don't remember dreaming.'

'No. I used to dream, and I always knew when I dreamed even if I was unableto remember what I had dreamed about after I woke up. Years ago, I simplystopped dreaming while I was asleep.'

Danielle said, 'But that is impossible. If you don't get REM sleep for anextended period, the sleep deprivation makes you go crazy. You must use thepart of your brain that is active for REM sleep and dreaming or it makes yougo psychotic eventually.'

'As far as I can tell, that part of my brain must get enough activity whileI'm awake. I'm a light sleeper, and I don't go into deep sleep often. WhenI start to, I wake up automatically and then return to a light sleep.'

Naomi said, 'Lee is a very light sleeper. Even our cats can't sneak up onhim while he is asleep.'

Rick said, 'I can verify that. I've seen him wake up with a weapon in hishand, deal with a situation, verify that there was no danger, and then laydown and go back to sleep. All this without even waking up enough to rememberany of it in the morning.'

Danielle said, 'You just thought that he was awake.'

Rick said, 'No. He was awake enough to carry on a complete and coherent conversation. He asked and answered questions. He responded to visual stimuli and wasaware of his surroundings at the time. He simply didn't store the informationin his long term memory and forgot about it by morning.'

Danielle said, 'Well, I guess that is the best coping mechanism I've everheard of. Too bad I can't learn it. It beats the alternatives. I'll haveto deal with the bad dreams, because I'm not going to spend the rest of mylife popping pills just so I can sleep without the occasional bad dream ornightmare.'

We spent the rest of the evening relaxing and chatting. Naomi and Danielletalked and cooked supper to help take Danielle's mind off of the project. Rick and I talked and examined his new toy. We went out back and used alaser pen to zero the sights in at 150 yards without ever firing a shot. We knew that the ammo he had would target accurately at that distance, andhe would only have to adjust for windage or move his sight to the right orleft if the rifle didn't shoot completely true.

After dinner, we cleaned up, played board games, and had a relaxing evening. We watched the news before we went to bed. Rick went to his room, Naomiand I went to our room, and Danielle slept in the guest room. She only wokeup once, and was able to get back to sleep after a few minutes.

By morning, everyone was rested, refreshed, and ready to take on the meeting. We had a good breakfast and got in to the facility early in order to setup a few things before the meeting began. Danielle put the infirmary on stand-byand had the secretary install the outside line inside the conference roomin case we needed to call for an ambulance. It might have been overkill,but there was a serious risk of a heart attack or other medical emergencyduring today's meeting, and we needed to be prepared for the worst.

Chapter 16

Everyone was on time for the meeting, but I gave them a few minutes to getcoffee and snacks before I started. Some of them looked tired, and I knewthat they had ignored my orders and worked late to have their reports as detailedas possible before the meeting. Kristin looked surprisingly refreshed, soI decided that she had either managed to finish early or had actually followedmy advice because she was one of the worst when it came to being a workaholicand a perfectionist.

Danielle had told me to use my standard approach when I did this meeting. The effect my presentation had had on her was only enhanced by the calm,unemotional, matter of fact delivery which I had used.

I began the meeting. 'Today, I will cover the worst case scenario. I knowthat you have not shown me your final reports, but I will not be going intothe detail necessary to require exact numbers. The reports were necessaryto confirm the projections and to allow us to determine the effects that variousefforts are likely to have. I will not go into possible solutions until afterwe have covered all of the problems and factors involved in creating the worstcase scenario. Please limit your interruptions to questions for clarificationof specific points and save any other comments for our discussion and evaluationafterwards. When we have all agreed on the possible problems, we will thenexamine possible methods of reducing the scope and severity of those problems.'

Dan said, 'OK, Lee, you have the floor. Let us have the bottom line, anddon't hold anything back. This is supposed to be the worst case scenario,so make the picture come to life for us and show us how bad things can get.'

Naomi whispered to Rick and Danielle, 'I'll bet you that he'll regret makingthat statement for the rest of his life.' Neither Rick nor Danielle wouldtake that bet. Nobody gives odds high enough to make it worth throwing awayyour money.

I began the presentation. 'You have already heard what I told Dan the worstcase scenario would mean when I had my first meeting with him and Rick. Itis only fair to tell you that I went over this presentation with Rick, Naomi,and Danielle to get some feedback and determine if I had made any major omissions. The consensus was that the presentation was complete enough for our purposes. Please remember that we are talking about the worst possible scenario. Everysingle factor would have to go as wrong as possible for all of the thingsI am about to describe to happen. Some will happen, but many or most of themwill be influenced by other factors to determine the length of the problemand the severity of the problem. Is that clear to everyone here?'

Everyone nodded that they understood. We had already decided that until wecompleted the project, we needed secrecy to allow us to work out our presentationin order to avoid a panic which could severely worsen the problems we weretrying to solve and even interfere with the solutions we were proposing.

'By the end of this year, there will be a stock market crash and resultingfinancial crisis. It may become bad enough to affect the banking industry. It may even result in large scale rioting in some places. It will affectthe entire economy and will have some effect on every person in the country.'

'By the beginning of the next year, and possibly just over six months fromnow, there will be computer failures and glitches which will affect governmentand corporate computers. They will interfere with money transfers, creditcard purchases and billing, debit card purchases, check verification, andautomatic deposits and debits. They may interfere with systems other thanbilling and verification, resulting in the loss of data and even whole files. This will cause cash flow problems, loss of faith in the banks, and lossof savings and investments.'

'By the beginning of the year, electrical systems will fail as power plantslose their computer control systems. We are talking about widespread or evencomplete power failures in most or all of the states in this country. Theoutages could last for months or longer. The longer the power is out, themore severe other problems will be. The extent of the damage to the plantwill depend on the type of plant, the type of failure that causes the shutdown,and the severity of the damage to the plant.'

'Extended problems at hydroelectric plants may jeopardize some dams whichhave controls to regulate the gates and the amount of water retained. Damfailures will be catastrophic to those downstream, especially if there islittle or no warning.'

'Some of the electric generation plants are nuclear. Although they have moremanual shutdowns and more training in handling emergency shutdowns, much oftheir monitoring and warning system is computer controlled. If they do notmanage to respond to the emergency in time to shut down the reactor cores,they will suffer a nuclear meltdown after their computers crash. The resultwill be widespread radioactive contamination downwind from the affected nuclearsite.'

'When electricity fails, the other utilities will follow depending on thelength of the failure and the ability of the other utility to operate on itsown. Water treatment will last as long as their own computers and generatorsfunction properly. Most plants will not be able to last more than three daysto a week at most. After the water pressure is gone, there will be no waterfor drinking or for fighting fires. People will not survive a week withoutwater, and contaminated water will keep you alive only if you don't die fromwhatever disease you contract from drinking it.'

'We are talking about the beginning of January, in what will probably be thecoldest part of winter. Homes that are all electric will have no way to heator cook. Homes that are all gas will probably also lose heat because theywon't have a fan to force the heated air through their home.'

'There will be fires across the country. People with fireplaces they neveruse will try to burn wood to keep warm. Without proper maintenance and cleaning,these are a fire hazard. People will use kerosene and other heaters to keepwarm, and there will be danger of fires from these as well. Accidents happen. People will try to cook with charcoal grills or other devices, and they willstart fires. People will die from carbon monoxide poisoning from using heatingor cooking devices in improperly ventilated areas.'

'How long do you think the wood will last when there are millions of peopleusing wood for all of their heating and cooking, especially when it takesmore green wood to produce the same amount of heat as seasoned wood that hasbeen properly dried? It takes a ten acre woodlot to keep a family in firewoodwithout destroying the trees faster than they can be replaced. Most citiesdon't have enough trees in or around them to keep the people warm and feduntil spring. And that is ignoring the fact that most people won't have thefireplaces or stoves set up to make efficient use of the wood that they doburn. The resources will be wasted if things last very long, and it willtake years or even decades to recover. Not only will there be uncontrolledfires in the cities causing problems, but there is a greatly increased chanceof numerous forest fires getting out of hand simply because people who knownothing about starting or building a proper fire will be out in the woodsburning whatever they can to stay warm and heat their food.'

'Without proper water pressure, fire departments will be unable to containor put out the fires, and many people will be left homeless. Forest fireswill probably have to be left to burn out on their own, since it takes a lotof time, effort, and coordination to control them at the best of times. Theonly factor acting in our favor is that it will be winter, and the chanceof many of the fires becoming major is slim because of the increased probabilitythat there will be rain or snow on the ground, and the forest won't have muchdry brush or undergrowth to spread the fires that do get away from the idiotsthat made them.'

'People will die from medical complications. With no electricity and workingcomputers, pharmacies don't know if your prescriptions are valid, and theywill refuse to dispense medications to most people. Doctors will be overwhelmedtreating patients who have major medical problems, and will be unable to takethe time for preventive care.'

'Hospitals will be overflowing. Initially the problem will be burn victims,minor accidents, muggings, and exposure. Later, the problem will be riotvictims, burn victims, and people suffering from various diseases. Many diseasesrelated to improper sanitation and bad water are almost unknown to most Americandoctors. Without their lab facilities and computers, they won't be able todiagnose and treat them as effectively.'

'With widespread power outages, fuel for transportation will be more difficultto get. There will be delivery and scheduling problems with medical supplies,food, medicine, and all other necessities.'

'Even if the grocery stores are opened, their frozen and refrigerated foodswill spoil without refrigeration. Emergency measures may work in the shortterm, but will not eliminate the problems. The stores in every major cityin this country only have a three day supply of food, and many people do notstore extra food in their homes. After the fourth or fifth day, many peoplewill begin to find out what it really means to be truly hungry for the firsttime in their life.'

'Fires will start to occur more frequently. They will be the result of arsonand rioting. Fire departments will be unable to respond effectively. Policedepartments will be unable to contain the rioters. In most places they willbe outnumbered and underarmed in comparison to the rioters. The NationalGuard will be unable to respond. Troops will be unable to get the activationcall, unable to get to the assembly points, or unable or unwilling to leavetheir families and loved ones unprotected.'

'Those National Guard troops who do respond will not be able to get armedright away because they have no ammunition stored at the armories with theirweapons. After they are armed, most of them are not trained to respond tothe situation they will be placed in, and will only serve to make the riotersbecome more violent.'

'The active military will be called up to enforce martial law, but they willonly be able to effectively keep order in a few selected major cities at most. Even by arming all of the cooks and clerks, there are less than 2 milliontroops on active duty, and it would require at least 50 to 100,000 troopsto keep order in New York City alone. There are not enough troops to maintainorder in every city in this entire country at the same time. Besides, themilitary will have their hands full with other problems. I will explain moreabout this in just a few minutes.'

'People who are sick will overwhelm the ability of the hospitals to treatthem. The hospitals will be unable to function at all once they run out offuel for their emergency generators. Even before that happens, treatmentwill become progressively worse because they are not set up to operate withoutmodern conveniences. Their laundry and sterilization requires huge amountsof electricity and water. Much of their equipment is dependent on electricityand computers, and many of their computers will not work, meaning that theall-important paperwork will be impossible to verify, keep track of, or evento do. There will be widespread epidemics in various locations, and the abilityof the location to properly dispose of contaminated bodies will correlatewith their ability to contain the outbreaks and minimize the spread of thedisease through rats and other carriers.'

'There will be an increase in violence, with gangs of violent criminals roamingthe countryside looking for food, water, guns, ammo, alcohol, drugs, and sextoys. I say 'sex toys' because the perversion of certain humans means thatany other human or animal they can subjugate and use for their sexual satisfactionwill do if nothing else is available.'

'Police officers will be unable or unwilling to respond to many of the callsthey receive. That assumes that the phones are still working, which is unlikelygiven the complexity of the computerized switching systems. Citizens willbe unable to get help, and will be forced to defend themselves from whateverthreat they encounter. This will occur at the same time that home invasionrates skyrocket. Criminals who know they won't get stopped by the police,and will probably never even be caught have little to lose by taking the risk. Add in the probability that they will ever be convicted or sentenced, andthey have nothing to lose. On the other hand, they have everything to gain. There is the possibility of finding food, water, alcohol, drugs, guns, ammo,and someone to use for their sexual pleasure.'

'People trying to escape from the cities will be stalled on the expresswaysbecause of traffic jams and accidents. They will be unable to refuel becausethe pumps at the gas stations require electricity to operate. They will beunprepared to survive with just what they are carrying, and will either dieor learn to survive. The school of hard knocks is not a gentle teacher, andmany mistakes are severely punished. You can imagine the results for yourself.'

'If some order is not restored and some method of transporting essential suppliesis not worked out, there will be widespread famine and violence. Most farmerstoday are so industrialized that they can not operate without support. Eventhose that do manage to grow crops will have no way to market them, and noway to ensure their safety if they do get them to a market.'

'The entire Napa valley and all of the farms in southern California will returnto desert if they can't keep diverting water from as far away as Coloradoto irrigate their crops. Transportation will also be a problem for them,as will security.'

'Most of the military troops will be required to provide security for thefood convoys to keep criminals and black marketeers from stealing and resellingthe food. Many of the rest will be required to keep illegal immigrants fromcoming across the border from Mexico. We may have problems, but they arealready starving, and they will only fare worse when the U.S. suddenly stopssending foreign aid and food to other countries. At least in the U.S., theythink that they will have a chance for survival.'

'The rest of the military will be doing what they can to maintain their effectivenessand defend the country. It is very probable that one or more of our enemieswould use this opportunity to attack America. The mode of attack could beanything from terrorist bombing, chemical attacks, biological attacks, oreven nuclear weapons. This would be their best opportunity, and with thewidespread outbreaks of disease, proving a biological or chemical attack wasintentional would be next to impossible.'

'That concludes this portion of the presentation. If you would like clarificationon any of these points, or wish to discuss any points I did not cover, pleasewait until after we take a ten minute break for everyone to assimilate whatwas just covered and take a few minutes to get their thoughts together.'

Dan looked as white as a ghost, but he seemed to be maintaining his composure. His hands hardly shook at all as he sipped at his coffee. Most of the otherswere holding up at least as well, but one or two of the people in the grouplooked like they were already in mild shock. I had hopes that we just mightmake it through the entire meeting without incident, but Danielle didn't looktoo happy, so I decided to wait before relaxing.

After fifteen minutes had passed, I asked Dan if he would like to start thequestions.

'Lee, have you been able to revise your figures on what the death toll couldbe in a worst case scenario?'

'Yes, Dan, we have.' Dan's face flooded with relief.

'The damage to property is impossible to accurately estimate due to the numberof variables involved and the extreme variability built into some of them. Our estimates are that in a worst case scenario, at least 30% of the populationwill die within the first two years. If there is large scale violence, aprolonged war, or a complete breakdown of society, up to 75 or 80% of thepopulation could be dead in that same time period.'

Dan's face drained as he went into complete shock at my statement. One ofthe assistants fainted. I think his name was Mark. He was on Kristin's team. Danielle was about to rush over to him when she saw John's assistant Waltclutching his chest. She went over to him and Naomi tended to Mark.

The rest of the people in the room were about evenly split. Half were helpingthe two who were in distress. The others were stunned into silent immobility.

After about fifteen minutes, Mark was up again and was relatively stable again. Walt had been taken to the infirmary. Danielle returned and said that itwas just a panic attack coupled with angina. She had sent Walt to the hospitalfor observation, but he should be back in a day or two, ready to finish theproject.

There was some muttering around the table, and I could see that some of thegroup were clearly discouraged by the news I had just delivered.

Dan saw it too, and summed up their opinion. 'Lee, if things could get thatbad, what is the point in completing this project? We can't stop certainthings, and even if everyone listens to us, we can only realistically expectto change the figures by maybe ten or twenty percent. Is it really worthit to do all this? How much difference can we make if we can only changethe death toll by ten or twenty percent?'

I said, 'Thirty to sixty million people. That's how much ten to twenty percentof the population is. Is the possibility of saving that many lives worththe effort to you? If not, we can always stop wasting our time and try tofind something more important to do.'

Danielle smiled. She knew I had just motivated them out of their shock, andthey would give everything they could to finish this project and save as manylives as possible.

Chapter 17

Dan smiled. He knew that I had just challenged the group with something thatwould not only motivate them, but give them something tangible to focus onwhen the magnitude of the task seemed overwhelming. They couldn't stop theinevitable, and they couldn't save everybody. But they could make sure thatwe didn't repeat the mistake made when the Titanic sank. We could make surethat all of the lifeboats were filled to capacity so that nobody died unnecessarilyif we could help it.

Dan said, 'OK, Lee, how do we go about saving as many people as possible?'

'Educate the people. Make them aware of the possible problems and give themcheap, easy solutions to minimizing those problems.'

John said, 'Give us some examples of cheap, easy solutions, Lee.'

'Take the problem with water and sanitation. If you fill your bathtub beforethe water runs out, you can use the water to flush your toilet. Rainwaterand melted snow can also be used. Hell, water from a stream or mud puddlecan be used to flush a toilet.'

'As far as drinking water goes, you can store it for months. Just take yourempty two liter plastic bottles, rinse them, and fill them with tap water. You can even add one or two drops of bleach to make sure that nothing growsin them for more than six months. If the water tastes stale, pour it backand forth between two containers to aerate it again, and it will taste OK. Each two liter will keep one person alive for one day, but two is betterfor hydration. It also recycles the bottles that they would just throw away.'

Dan said, 'Are there any other ways?'

'If you can boil the water, a teaspoon of bleach will purify a gallon of clearwater if you boil it for twenty minutes. You have to strain the water andallow it to settle to make sure it is clear when you pour it into the panto boil it.'

'Resublimated iodine crystals, water purification tablets, and other chemicalwater treatments are available commercially, and can be fairly inexpensive. There are also filters which purify water that operate without water pressurein your pipes, but they are more expensive. They can be found at differentbackpacking suppliers.'

Danielle said, 'OK. Pure water and sanitation can reduce disease. What aboutthe food problem?'

'Stock up while you can. Buy beans and rice in bulk. They are cheap, andthey will keep you alive. You can get a 100 pound bag of rice for less than$30, and some beans are only about twice that. Buy generic canned goods. They may not look or taste as good all the time, buy you can keep your grocerybudget the same and buy more food than you can eat. Store the excess. Itwill keep in a closet for years.'

'Buy some powdered milk. It can be used for drinking, cooking, and baking. It requires no refrigeration, and it will store for years. Instant lemonadeor juice mixes will allow you to get some sugar and flavor the stored waterwhen you drink it.'

Steve said, 'What about cooking and heating?'

'Do the maintenance on your fireplaces and chimneys to make sure that theyare safe to use. They can be used for heating and cooking, and are relativelysafe. The other methods get more risky because they don't have the builtin fire safety and they don't provide proper ventilation.'

'You can get a backpack cook stove and the fuel, but that only lets you cookwhile your fuel is available, and they are somewhat expensive relative toother methods. You can stock up on charcoal and lighter fluid when they areon sale. You can cook outdoors on a charcoal grill, but I wouldn't recommendit for indoor use due to smoke and carbon monoxide production. You couldalso use sterno or other fuel, but fuel becomes the limiting factor again.'

'If you have the room on your property, you could build a small fire pit. A wood fire would cook your food and you could store wood in a shed or garageto keep it dry. If you own your own home, you might be able to install afireplace so it would be available for heating and cooking. Even if nothinghappens, it increases the value of your home and allows you to enjoy quietevenings by the fire.'

Danielle said, 'What about diseases?'

'Stock up on disinfectants and soap. Use them. Stock up on over the countermedicine for everything from colds and flu to diarrhea and headaches. Geta bunch of vitamins and take them as directed. Get a good first aid kit togetherand learn how to use it. Get a few good books on home first aid and preventivemedicine. Get in shape by exercising and eating right so that you are lesssusceptible to disease in the first place.'

Kristin said, 'What about your finances?'

'Quit eating out and going to the movies, or cut back on some other thingyou do that you don't need to do. Save the money in cash, and put it somewheresafe. Don't rely on the bank to keep all of your money safe. Have some cashwhere you can get to it. If all of the utilities go out, you won't have anyutility bills to pay, but you better have some way to make your mortgage orrent payment for at least a few months or you may be facing eviction or foreclosureeven if the money is stuck in the same bank that is foreclosing on you. Youhave to prove they have your money in court, while they can just claim thatthey are working on a computer problem and have no way to verify your claimsat this time. However, they do have a deed for your property with them listedas a lienholder.'

Rick said, 'What about security?'

'Those solutions cost more, but they are necessary if you want to protector keep what you have. Get a good gun, learn how to use it safely, and getenough ammo to make sure that you don't run out any time soon. If you aren'tfully prepared to kill someone else to save your own life or protect yourfamily, don't waste your time and money buying a gun.'

'If you can't afford much, having any safe gun is better than having no gunat all. But if you don't intend to use it, having no gun is safer becausethat ensures that you are not providing the first person who attacks you withthe means to kill you and your entire family.'

'You can try to make your property more secure by installing a fence, andyou can make your house more secure by reinforcing the lower walls and coveringthe windows with shutters you can close from the inside. Nothing is perfect,but people usually look for the easy way when they are too lazy to do thework themselves.'

'Lighting is important for security. Don't have a bunch of bright lightson when there is no electricity for miles if you don't want everyone to knowwhere you are and what you have that they don't. On the other hand, if youare stumbling around in the dark and can't see someone sneaking around onyour property, you are an easy target. Oil lamps with oil are inexpensive,and provide light and some heat. Candles also work. Make sure you have plentyof matches or fuel for your lighters, because they have to be lit every timethey are turned back on.'

'There are shortwave radios which will run for half an hour on three minutesof cranking on their built in generator, and which have a solar panel to runthem in the daytime. Some even have a built in LCD light which will allowyou to see in a dark room. The radio allows you to listen to news and weatherreports, and gives you some contact with others.'

'Several companies sell LCD flashlights which will run for two or more dayson one or two small batteries. If saved for emergencies, a small box of batterieswill allow you to have emergency light whenever you need it.'

Dan said, 'Those are fine. They are cheap and easy things that individualscan do. What about corporations, governments, or utilities?'

'The power utilities can disconnect themselves from the grid so that theydo not cause or suffer a cascade failure, where they go down like dominoesbecause the breakers do not kick in before the next system overloads and fails. They can also streamline their system to minimize computer control and computerproblems. They can make sure that they still have all of their manual controlsset up and can disconnect the computers and run with minimal systems.'

'Hydroelectric facilities need to make sure that they can protect the damif they suffer a long term outage and are unable to provide any power to thedam. They also need to verify that they can operate the necessary systemsmanually if their computers crash and refuse to operate properly.'

'Nuclear facilities need to verify that they can shut down the reactor completely,and can override the computer to keep glitches from interfering with theirefforts. Small glitches that have no discernible cause could be more catastrophicthan a total failure. The computer could get false sensor readings and eitherrespond automatically or cause someone in control to make the wrong response. Either way, a reactor meltdown would not make many people happy.'

'Water treatment plants could make sure that they have enough fuel to runtheir emergency generators for an extended period of time. If they even haveone. They can also make sure that they can override their computer and keepthe facility running manually for as long as possible.'

'The businesses that will be the hardest hit will be those that have automatedthe most or even become completely dependent upon electricity. Places likeWalMart, where they don't even price much of their merchandise any more. With no electricity, not only do their registers not work, but they can'teven check out their merchandise by hand because they don't have any workingbar code scanners to tell them and you what the price is supposed to be.'

Steve said, 'What about the government?'

'Don't waste your time. They have known about the problem for years, andhave ignored it. They don't want to educate the public and allow them tominimize their own suffering. Even county and city governments would decideto appoint groups to study the problem. They would just try to justify spendingtaypayers dollars on a group that was not qualified to evaluate the problemin the first place spending the next year deciding whether or not we wereright and what actions should be taken. By the time they even submitted theirreport, it would already be too late.'

'Then what about the press? They seem to have covered a lot about this problem. Why shouldn't we trust them to help us get the correct information to thepopulation?'

'The press had periodically run stories about Y2K. Even when they had a sixmonth long problem with the largest bank in America being unable to issuecredit cards, they didn't really cover the story, and they said that everythinghad been fixed when the programmers only repaired the part of the programthat verified that the date was correct. Their fix was probably to tell thecomputer that for numbers lower than 70, the first two digits of the yeardate was 20 instead of 19. That means that the computer will accept the dateas valid.'

'Yes, so what would be wrong with that solution?'
'What if the number they picked was 05 instead of 70? How often would yoube required to fix the program? What about the entire program that calculatesinterest and penalties? They didn't even work on it. Do you want your January,2000 credit card bill to tell you that you owe them $150,000 as a minimumpayment because your $2500 bill in December had 100 years of interest calculatedon it? There are a lot of mistakes, and not all of them are logical. Creditcard companies also have a long track record of suing individuals for chargeswhich they know are illegitimate or are due to their own computer errors. Some have gone all the way to court and a jury before they settled and paidfor their arrogance.'

'Don't you mean paid for their errors?'

'No. They knew they were wrong, but thought that they could intimidate someoneinto giving them money which they had no right to. They operate under thearrogance that because they are some large corporation, they are always right,even when they know that they are wrong. They paid for their arrogance whenthe jury awarded damages to the guy they had been harassing because theirown communications showed that they knew that they had made a mistake andthey decided to harass the little guy instead of admitting their mistake andcorrecting it.'

Dan said, 'What else can people do to make things easier?'

'Buy a small dehydrator and use it. Dry any food in your refrigerator thatwill go bad if you don't use it soon. Buy extra fresh vegetables when theyare on sale and dry them. Buy bags of frozen vegetables on sale and put themstraight into the dehydrator. Buy a bushel of apples or pears at a farmer'smarket and dry them after you peel, core, and slice them.'

'Why dehydrated food, Lee. Won't it take more water to prepare it?'

'Yes, it will take more water to prepare it, but it is more condensed andlighter to carry than any other form of food except for freeze dried food. The food is light, takes up very little room, retains its vitamins, and canbe stored at room temperature for years. I have eaten apples that were driedten years before. The only thing that was done to them was to redry themseveral years before I ate them. The storage closet had allowed them to slowlystart to rehydrate and we needed to redry them before they became wet enoughto allow bacteria to grow and cause them to spoil.'

'If you are backpacking in the woods, you can generally find water more easilythan you can find ready to eat food. Food is only ripe and ready to eat whenit is in season, and very few things are in season in January in most of thiscountry. A bottle of water purification tablets weighs about an ounce, isslightly over an inch tall, and holds at least 50 tablets, allowing you topurify 50 quarts of water. If you have twenty pounds of dried food in yourbackpack, you can carry the enough food to feed you for more than a month. In the winter, you can supplement y&127;our water almost anywhere, even if itis more important than food in most survival situations. Winter survivalis one exception. You need energy to maintain your core body temperature. Without it, you will die of exposure long before you die of thirst or sufferfrom severe dehydration.'

Dan said, 'What about the rioting, fires, and other things which might happen?'

'All we can do is warn the people of the possibilities and educate them tothe alternatives. If they are not scared, hungry, and wondering what is goingon, the people will not panic and react violently to the least little provocation. It is the unknown, and the accompanying fear, which will allow rational peopleto panic and resort to senseless violence.'

'Don't get me wrong. There will still be violence. But if the people knowwhat to expect, and they have been allowed to prepare and given a chance tosurvive, they will not be desperate enough to resort to senseless violence. At least, probably not quite as often. This limits the severity and thefrequency of some of the actions which are most likely to result in needlessdeaths.'

Dan said, 'We seem to be winding down. Why don't you cover the other possiblesolutions as a group and work them out? We can cover your recommendationsnext week when we go over the most likely scenario, since that is what mostof them should be tailored for. We can also go over Lee's ideas on how bestto disseminate the information to the people. If we keep going at this pace,we can beat the tax man, people. Then maybe more of the people will havethe money to do something if they are listening while they still haven't spenttheir refund checks. Not that most of them haven't already started doingthat before the year already began, but we can hope.'

Chapter 18

After the meeting adjourned, most of the group left. We let them go so theycould sort out the new information, as well as the ramifications of our project. We were attempting to alter the very fabric of American society. Our motivesdid not matter any more than the reason did. Even if the government and thepress had not intentionally failed in their responsibilities to the Americanpeople, the result would be the same.

If the people were to have an educated choice, and the freedom to prepareas best they could, they would require the information necessary to make thatchoice. We would have to find a way to make the information available sothat it was believable, but still present it in such a manner that we werenot subject to attack for merely trying to foment rebellion against the governmentor inciting mass panic and rioting.

Dan had returned to his office. There were five of us left in the room. Rick, Danielle, Kristin, Naomi, and myself. We worked well together, andwe got along well in our free time, not that we had had much free time lately. We decided to go into town and get something to eat at a restaurant wherewe could sit, eat, and talk. We knew that we wouldn't be able to keep fromdiscussing business for long, but we did need some time to wind down fromthe meeting ourselves.

We all piled into Naomi's 4X4 truck. It had two bench seats, so there wasplenty of room for the five of us. It was a half hour to town, but Naomitook her time.

Kristin said, 'That was a dirty trick springing the new information on usat the meeting, Lee. You could have told us a little at a time and made itless of a shock.'

'Yes, I could have. But it wouldn't have had the same effect, would it?'

'Not by a long shot. But I thought we were only supposed to concern ourselveswith domestic concerns. Why did you include the stuff about foreign attackand invasion?'

'You don't think that nuclear or chemical weapons exploding in American cities,terrorists bombing inside American borders, or a million extra mouths to feedwhen our own people may already be starving are important enough to be considereddomestic concerns just because they have a foreign origin?'

'That's not what I mean, and you know it. But they aren't part of the normalconsideration when you are talking about domestic policy, are they?'

'Yes, they are, but they are usually not acknowledged publicly. When youwork on the domestic stock market, do you ignore the foreign stock marketsjust because they don't list American stocks?'

'Of course not. If the Tokyo index is falling, we may actually pick up becauseinvestors want a more stable stock. Or our investors my sell high here andbuy low there to make a killing when the stock goes back up.'

'You just made one very important assumption. You said 'when the stock goesback up', but what happens if the stock doesn't ever go back up?'

'Then people lose money, and whoever bought the stock has to pay on the margincall.'

'What if there is no margin call because they can't access the computer records,and they don't know who owns the stock? What if they can't access any oftheir records for months?'

'Then the stockholders are responsible, and they will eventually have to trackthem down.'

'All 100 million of them? Half of whom may already be dead, and half of themwith no way to probate a will or even locate heirs?'

'Shit! Lee, you sure know how to show a girl a good time. First you showher how the whole building she's in is going to go crashing down around her,then you tell her that the damn foundation is nothing but a sham too.'

'You know that you just proved to me in two minutes that the entire financialstructure of this country is nothing but a big paper sham. If there is amajor disaster, the only people who own anything are the ones who hold thephysical paper documents that say that they do own whatever is on that paper. All of the computer records will be questionable because they will have tobe restored, and you have to examine every single record to prove that itwas not tampered with before it was restored. It's impossible.'

'And if the computer records can't be trusted, whoever has the documents onpaper must be the legal owner.'

'Even if they already sold the stocks and received payment for it. They canwrite off the entire loss on their taxes and pocket the money they did receive. That means that somebody was ripped off. And they are not going to appreciatethe courts helping to rip them off, either.'

'Frustration with an entrenched bureaucracy is often perceived as senseless,often leading to 'senseless violence' when there is no other course left tothe injured party to have at least some sort of justice when it becomes obviousthat getting his just compensation is no longer feasible.'

'I understand that frustration is enough to override reason at times, butwhere is this conversation taking us, Lee?'

'You need to understand that many of the people in this country are alreadyfrustrated, Kristin. They have seen the law twisted by attorneys for therich, have seen corporations win in court simply because they could spenda million dollars a year for legal defenses while the people suing them wentbroke or died. They have seen the government use the same tactics on citizenswho had done nothing wrong, but were considered undesirable by the governmentbecause of their opinions or views.'

'George Washington said that government 'is force. And, like fire, it isa dangerous servant and a fearful master.' Politicians know this fact. Theyalso know that in order to maintain fear, you have to make a few examplesof people. The examples you choose let the people know what the governmentis willing to tolerate and what it is not. Also, the way the government allowsits agencies to operate tells them and the people what is considered moreimportant.'

'Yes, I understand all of that. But what does that have to do with our research?'

'We know that there are going to have to be major changes if something doesnot occur to minimize the effects of the coming crisis. You need to keepin mind that a large number of the people in this country have been tryingto institute changes for a very long time. They are not satisfied with howthings have been going, and they want the government to represent their interests.'

'These same people are a majority of the population, but the bureaucracy isslow to change in response to the demands of the people. It was built tobe that way. However, this majority will become even more substantial duringthe coming hard times. These people live in the areas where they are morelikely to survive, they are more likely to prepare for their own survival,and they are more likely to be ready to kill to protect their own lives andtheir own property. If the responses the government makes to 'correct' theproblems which are going to occur do not represent the will of the people,and the government ignores their demands for an accounting, the people justmay decide to put in a government of the people and by the people since lettingsomeone govern for the people doesn't seem to have worked too well over thelast hundred years or so.'

'You mean that the government is the wild card in our calculations. Theycan make things easier on everybody, or they can follow their usual courseof listening to their major political contributors and protecting their interests. Which of course, is probably exactly what they will do.'

'If they try to restore the same old routine after having just demonstratedtheir complete inability to perform the functions which they were chargedwith, the people who have been forced to survive on their own due to governmentincompetence will not tolerate being informed that they must now obey thatsame government or else they will be punished. If that threat is ever openlymade, there will be no turning back. There is almost certain to be a civilwar in this country, and the government will not win unless they can convincethe entire military to stand behind them and they are willing to nuke halfof the surviving population. That will not happen. In the end, they willforce the people to create another form of government.'

'You seem certain about the outcome, Lee.'

'If you and everyone you know had to survive on your own for months or years,knowing that all of your problems could have been easily averted if the governmentyou appointed to look out for your interests had taken action when they learnedof the problem, how would you feel about the government?'

'I wouldn't like them, and I certainly wouldn't trust them.'

'Now, what would you do if someone showed up one day and told you that thegovernment was back, and that they had now reassumed control of your life?'

'I'd tell him that he was nuts. Then I'd probably contact the governmentand ask them where they thought they got off. I didn't elect them, and therewere no legal elections to allow them to assume power.'

'The Constitution was suspended because of the emergency, and the representativeswere appointed by the remaining representatives so that they had a quorumto allow them to run the government. They have passed new laws to protectyou, and they do not like people questioning the authority of their representatives. If you do not follow their directives, you will be arrested, tried, and punished.'

'I'd tell them to go to hell. Then I'd tell everyone I knew about how theythreatened me without provocation.'

'The shot heard round the world. Congratulations, you have just started therebellion. You are a marked person, and your only chance for a life is towin the war and overthrow the government so they can't make an example ofyou.'

Rick and Danielle broke up laughing at the shocked look on Kristin's face. She realized that she had just been set up and had walked into it with hereyes wide open.

'You see, under the right conditions, it does not take much to start a war. Even simple misunderstandings have started more wars than most people wouldimagine.'

Kristin said, 'So we need to keep the government's response to our reportin mind when we make our calculations because they might try to make an exampleof us to make sure that they intimidate everybody who disagrees with them,just in case time proves us to be correct.'

'Well, it would help. Since all governments operate at least in some partbased on fear, it would make sense that there would have to be some basisfor that fear, at least some of the time. Our government is a bureaucracythat wants to continue as it is. None of the parts want to lose any poweror control. Over time, as parts get to the point where they are no longeruseful, they are simply retained out of habit. Instead of being downsizedlike any corporation that can't afford dead weight, they are kept on evenif they are doing nothing useful or productive. Instead of reassigning themto new jobs if any become necessary, the government hires new people and createsa new department to do those jobs. The bureaucratic beast simply grows, regardlessof the cost or its effect on the people who are forced to support it.'

'But that can't go on forever, can it?'

'No. Eventually, the government becomes so large, so corrupt, and so unsupportablethat it kills the economy and rots the society from within. It happened tothe Roman Empire, and we have blindly followed in their footsteps. If nothinghappens to change the road the government is taking, we will also eventuallycollapse into anarchy. It looks like we are being given a large shove inthat direction, since the government has left the people with no choice butto ignore the government and protect themselves if they want to survive thecrash of our technology.'

'Lee, you don't think that there will ever be any going back and simply rebuildingonce the changes start, do you?'

'There's an old saying that you can't go home again. You can go back to whereyou grew up and relive your old memories, but everything has changed. Itjust isn't the same. It shouldn't be. In nature, those things which do notchange and adapt stagnate and die. The same thing is true of societies andcivilizations. It just takes longer.'

Chapter 19

Danielle said, 'OK, Lee, what are the factors that are most responsible formaking the people feel so frustrated with the government?'

'There is no response to the will of the people. The political parties havetaken over the elections to the point that there is no real difference onmost issues between either candidate. When there is any abuse of power bygovernment agencies, or an infringement of the rights of the people by governmentagents, the standard response is to whitewash the whole thing. Investigationsend in coverups, when they are even conducted. Some investigations are noteven covered up, and even the recommendations of the Senate are ignored. Business as usual continues, and the people are reminded that the governmenttolerates some things and does not tolerate others, regardless of the legalityor the morality of the situation.'

Kristin said, 'Come on, Lee, you can't be serious that the government coversup illegal activities and nobody has been able to do anything about it. Tellme something illegal that the government has refused to punish anyone forand that everyone knows that illegal activities have actually occurred.'

Rick smiled. He knew what was coming, as we had discussed many things overthe years, and had spent long hours covering as many subjects of interestas we could.

'Do you remember an investigation by Congress concerning what was called theIran-Contra Affair? It concerned a scheme to bring drugs into the country,sell them, use the money to buy military weapons, and ship them out of thecountry to support rebel groups because the military aid had been refusedby Congress.'

'Yes, Lee, we remember. It was a big scandal involving the White House, PresidentReagan, and Colonel Oliver North. After the hearings, the guilty partieswere punished.'

'Do you really believe that a Colonel in the U.S. military could organizeand run something that complex on his own? Do you really believe that someonewith that little authority could make the state and local police turn a blindeye to illegal activities involving smuggling drugs and military weapons? There were attempts to investigate and stop the activities, but they werestopped by someone with the authority to make the local law enforcement keeptheir noses out of what was obviously not their business.'

'Was there really interference in local law enforcement's efforts to stopthe illegal activities?'

'According to the Congressional findings, records did indicate that someonemade sure that the activities continued for as long as possible. No realinvestigation was made into who was responsible, because the people were notagitated enough to force a thorough investigation. The facts were there,but nobody cared enough to make those responsible pay for their crimes.'

'What facts?'

'The fact that all of the transfers occurred in one state. The fact thatthe governor, or someone representing his office, made sure that the transferscontinued to occur because of their positive influence on his state's laggingeconomy.'

'OK, so there was some politics involved, and they threw somebody to the wolvesas a sacrificial lamb. That happens all the time, and there is nothing youcan do to stop it.'

'That is why the people are frustrated. Politics, politicians, and the governmenthave become so corrupt and so intertwined that there is nothing that the peoplecan do to overcome the entrenched bureaucracy. The people with the powerdon't want to make the changes that the people are demanding, so they dragthings out until the people get tired and lose interest.'

'That doesn't mean that the government has intentionally violated people'srights and covered up the evidence of those crimes. How can you believe thatthose things actually happened? I know that there may be a few aberrationsor mistakes, but you said it as if they happened all the time.'

'There is an agency of the federal government that at least one U.S. Presidenthas publicly considered abolishing completely. It served no purpose thatcould not be handled by other agencies, and was so out of control that eventhe agency that it was a part of wanted nothing to do with most of the agentsin the event they were to be retained by the government. Even the government'sown investigators concluded that this agency's normal operations were a violationof the rights of the citizens. At least 70% of all cases brought by thisagency could be demonstrated in court to be entrapment or other violationsof the law.'

'What do you mean 'entrapment or other violations'? If there was that muchillegal activity going on, wouldn't the media have made a ruckus and madethe government do something about the problem?'

'By entrapment, I mean that they hired undercover operatives to talk someoneinto breaking the law, sometimes even using coercion. When the perpetratorwas busted for his illegal activities, he was often given the choice of beingprosecuted or becoming an informant or spy for the feds. The agents werepaid for each person they got to work as a spy or for each person who wasconvicted based on their testimony. Many search warrants can be routinelyshown to have been issued after the agents committed perjury by swearing underoath to lies in order to convince the judge to issue the search warrant.'

Kristin said, 'But why wouldn't the press do anything about this? They representthe people, and they have a duty to inform the public, don't they?'

'The press neither represents the people, nor has any duty to inform the publicof the facts they uncover. The members of the major media are mostly liberals,and many of them are extremely liberal. The members of this society listthemselves in most of their opinions and views as conservative, with 70% ofthe population opposing most or all of the views expressed by liberals, especiallythe extreme liberals.'

'The only duty the press has is to use its vocation of reporting facts orstories they consider to be of interest to make money. If they make a profit,they get paid. If they don't want to cover a story, they will distort factsor slant the story with their own opinions and half truths to make the storymore useful in convincing the public that the viewpoint espoused by the pressis correct and truly represents that of the majority of the people.'

'So why would they profit from withholding facts from the people and protectingan agency that was doing so much damage?'

'Because the agency is the B.A.T.F., and the press and all other liberalsdo not like people with guns. They say that they are against guns becauseof moral reasons, but they are against people being armed because they areafraid. If people are armed, they can resist abuses, even those committedby their own government, much more effectively than unarmed people can. Liberalswant to decide what is best for everyone, and then force everyone to obeythe laws they have passed because it is in their own best interests.'

'They want to disarm the American people by convincing them that the secondamendment is not really important any more because the world has changed andwe are more civilized. Besides, we have all of these police officers whosejob it is to protect you and your property, so why would individuals needtheir own firearms for self protection?'

'Pretty speeches from people who know that the police can not do that job,and that the courts have repeatedly upheld the ruling that the police arenot responsible for the safety of any individual, but to the community ingeneral. Not to mention the fact that our society is more violent, and moredangerous for the individual than during any previous era, including the Colonialperiod of expansion and Indian wars. If it conflicts with their own goalsor beliefs, the press will intentionally lie to the people and twist the factsthat they report to more accurately match their own beliefs.'

Danielle said, 'But why are the people becoming so disillusioned with thegovernment now, Lee?'

'Because agencies that have been trustworthy for decades are becoming as corruptand political as the rest of the government bureaucracy. The FBI has beenproven in court to have intentionally withheld evidence, committed perjuryunder oath pertaining to that evidence, and to have even manufactured evidencein an attempt to convict an innocent man when the only crimes committed inthe case were by government agents. In the Randy Weaver case, in particular,they were fined by the judge presiding over their prosecution. Later, thegovernment lost $3.1 million in a settlement to the Weaver family for thewrongful death of the mother and son.'

'Even though a Congressional investigation concluded that the government hadbeen at fault, and had committed crimes, nothing was done to punish thoseresponsible for the crimes.'

Kristin said, 'But they didn't really determine that any crimes had been committed,did they?'

'Well, with the trouble that politicians have in just saying something withoutcovering their political asses from those who might have a different opinion,you tell me. Their finding was that a small fourteen year old boy had beenshot in the back by federal agents who had not identified themselves and hadno legal right to be on the property at the time. Their finding was thatthe FBI sniper who shot and wounded Randy Weaver had violated FBI policy. That same sniper shot at a running target and ended up killing an unarmedwoman with a baby in her arms and wounding another man with the bullet afterit passed through her. They ruled that this second shot was clearly Unconstitutional,and violated the rights of the individuals who had been killed or injured.'

'I agree that the wording is fairly strong for a politician, and would seemto indicate that they agreed that crimes had been committed.'

'The Constitution is the supreme law of the land. Anything which violatesthe constitution is illegal. Killing someone in an illegal shooting is murder. All of these are basic legal definitions which can be proven in court byany second year law student. The fact that the government has refused toeven prosecute the agent, to allow a jury to determine his guilt or innocenceas proscribed by law, or to determine if he is guilty of a lesser charge,only indicates that the government or several of its agencies seem to considerthemselves capable of determining when and where the law will be applied.'

'The people are losing faith in the government because equal protection underthe law is one of the cornerstones of our form of government. Any governmentwhich refuses to abide by its own basic tenets is generally not consideredto be worthy of trust, especially in the areas considered to be less importantthan those that form the foundation of our society.'

Rick said, 'Why have things been getting so bad? Why are so many people losingfaith in the government, and seem so unwilling to trust the government?'

'Because the government has repeatedly proven that it is not worthy of trust. Respect for the citizens has been eroded to the point that it no longer exists. Those who run the government believe that they are more important, and thatthe citizens are not important enough to be worthy of respect. Respect mustbe mutual for trust to remain. It has taken time, but that trust has diminished,and it is fading fast among many people. The lack of voter turnout for electionsis an indicator of the extent that the people have lost faith in their government.'

'Recent events have shown the people that there is little chance that thepoliticians will even perform the essential duties required of them by theConstitution. The same governor of Arkansas who was protected during theIran-Contra hearings is now the President of this country. We have a commanderin chief of the military who was a draft dodger. A man with a history ofcommitting crimes lied openly about another crime which he committed, andthe Senate has found him not guilty. All of the press coverage was slantedto remove the emphasis of the trial from the most important facts. This wasa smoke screen to allow politics as usual to continue.'

Kristin said, 'What do you mean, Lee? Isn't the President entitled to a privatelife? Wasn't the invasion of his privacy and all of the investigation justan attempt to attack him politically?'

'Regardless of the politics, there were a few basic facts which were intentionallydownplayed by the media and the Democratic party for their own reasons. PresidentClinton, even when given more leeway than any other American in history, intentionallylied under oath during grand jury testimony. He was not required to answertheir questions, but he intentionally chose to answer, and he knew that theanswer he gave was a lie. Perjury is a felony, which he committed on videotape. His testimony was also written, allowing his lies to be examined easily. Even the content of his own 'apologies' was sufficient to convict him ofthe charge.'

Rick said, 'OK, so another politician got off. What is the big deal, andwhy should it have so much effect on the people?'

'Put yourself in the place of the people. They know that the government cannot be trusted, and that the government is not deserving of their respect. They know that the government will ignore the law and even the Constitutionin order to achieve their desired goals. They know that at least 45% of theirsenators will follow party dictates even if it means letting someone off whenthere is enough evidence to make even a five year old child of average intelligenceknow that he is busted and is going to be punished.'

'Now, the people are going to be subjected to the chaos and deprivations weare predicting as a direct result of the failure of the government to takeaction to prevent the problem. The commander in chief of the armed forces,who will be in command when martial law is declared and the Constitution issuspended, is someone who will lie, commit adultery, commit perjury, and dodgethe draft whenever it suits him.'

'Tell me that a sane, rational, sensible person would have to be mentallyunbalanced to worry that there would be no logical reason to believe thatthere was a possibility that once martial law was declared, a person of thiscaliber would have no possible reason to retain the power and control indefinitely. Tell me that there is no reason why he would not behave exactly as he wassupposed to when he has proven repeatedly that he will break the law wheneverit suits him. Tell me that there is no reason for intelligent, rational peopleto worry about what is in store for them when their own government has intentionallymade sure that whatever happens within the next year will happen, and thatthe citizens have not been properly prepared.'

The rest of the ride to the restaurant was conducted in silence. Everyoneneeded some time to think about what they had just heard. I knew that therewould be questions, but they would wait until the ride back or when we couldtalk in private. The subject was sensitive enough that nobody would wantto talk about it in public.

I was surprised at the amount of food that was consumed at the restaurantthat night. The food was good, but I was almost certain that most of my guestswould have lost their appetite after our conversation during the ride. Wedid manage to make small talk and enjoy ourselves, so the trip was a successin more ways than one.

Chapter 20

During our trip back from the restaurant, we discussed our previous conversation. We decided that the reasoning and logic were sound, and that the conclusionswere solid enough that the entire group needed to be informed so they couldinclude these factors in our calculations. Regardless of intentions, thefact was that many people would react according to what they thought was intheir best interest. Lacking any reason to trust the government, they wouldautomatically distrust the government. Because the citizens had no reasonnot to believe that the government would take action against them, many ofthem would believe. It was human nature.

Danielle said, 'It's really paranoid to believe that the government is outto get you.'

Rick said, 'Tell that to Randy Weaver, or to the thousands who have been subjectedto Gestapo tactics at the hands of the BATF and have no way to get compensatedeven through the legal system that is supposed to protect their rights. It'sonly paranoid when the fear is irrational. When there is a rational reasonfor the fear, only an insane person would consider it paranoia.'

Kristin said, 'How will this affect our calculations?'

Naomi said, 'It will make the most likely scenario more violent if somethingis not done to make the two sides willing to talk to and trust each other. But the probability of that happening in the time available is about zero. Those in power know that the public backlash will be directed at them personally,and that they will be forced to accept responsibility and be held accountablefor the actions they have chosen to make. They will not consider this anacceptable solution.'

Danielle said, 'So, what useful purpose would be served by making this informationpublic in our results?'

Rick said, 'It might make the public more likely to moderate their responses. They would be acting on rational information instead of on generalized fearand mistrust of the government. But the information could also have the effectof focusing their anger. It could end up causing some of the violence thatwe are trying to prevent.'

I said, 'That may be. If so, it will be the will of the people.'

Kristin said, 'So you are saying that just because the people want to, theyshould be allowed to overthrow their government by force?'

'No, I am not the one saying that. The founding fathers of our country saidthat the reason for keeping the people armed was to insure that our systemof government always remained faithful to its intended purpose. You mustremember that our country was founded by people who desired freedom, who wonit by rebellion, and who desired to retain that freedom for their progeny. They set up the safeguards in our Constitution to make sure that there wouldbe no chance of losing that freedom.'

'You mean that they were a bunch of Rebels, and they made sure that they didn'tlose that trait when they set up their government.'

'Some of their more famous quotes have been labeled as sedition against ourcurrent government until the source of the quote was proven in court.'

Kristin said, 'What would the government consider to be seditious, or designedto incite the people against their duly elected government?'

'Any government that fears arms in the hands of its citizens, should.'

Rick said, 'Thomas Jefferson.'

'The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood ofpatriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.'

Naomi said, 'Thomas Jefferson.'

'And what country can preserve its liberties, if its rulers are not warnedfrom time to time, that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Letthem take arms.'

Kristin, Danielle, Rick and Naomi were all stumped.

'Thomas Jefferson, ever the rebel unto his death.'

'My own affections have been deeply wounded by some of the martyrs to thiscause, but rather than it should have failed I would have seen half the earthdesolated; were there but an Adam and an Eve left in every country, and leftfree, it would be better than it is now.'

Naomi said, 'Thomas Jefferson, again.'

Rick said, 'You weren't kidding when you said he was always a rebel who believedin the rights of the individual, were you?'

'No, I wasn't. He also said, 'Our age will present two remarkable contrastsin history: the birth of political liberty, and the death of political morality.' I guess he figured that the farther the people were from self rule, the morethe political parties would influence the course of the government. He alsorecommended exercise to supplement education and keep a healty mind and strongbody. The single exercise he proposed as most important was taking long walkswith a gun. He said that sports with balls didn't promote or develop goodcharacter.'

'For I consider all the ill as established, which may be established. I havea right to nothing, which another has the right to take away; and Congresswill have a right to take away trials by jury in all civil cases. Let meadd, that a bill of rights is what the people are entitled to against everygovernment on earth, general or particular; and what no just government shouldrefuse, or rest on inference.'

Danielle said, 'Is that referring to the Bill of Rights, and why we reallyneed one?'

Rick said, 'Yes. It wasn't included in the Constitution, and that was oneof the most convincing arguments against adoption of the Constitution as itwas written. The Federalists agreed that all individuals were intended toretain their rights, and agreed to the conditional acceptance of the Constitutionpending the addition of a Bill of Rights by the first congress.'

Kristin said, 'So who said it?'

Rick said, 'Thomas Jefferson.'

'When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shallbecome corrupt as in Europe, and go to eating one another as they do there.'

Naomi said, 'Thomas Jefferson.'

'The people have the right to alter or abolish their form of government, byforce if necessary.'

Danielle said, 'Who said that?'

'I believe that it was Abraham Lincoln. I thought it ironic that he believedin the Constitutional right to change the government if the people wantedto make the change, and that he even believed that the people had the rightto force the government to obey their wishes. But he was responsible forforcing a form of government that the citizens of thirteen states had rejectedupon them simply because the current government retained the strength andpopulation to win the war. Evidently, he didn't believe that the right existedunless it was representative of a majority of the entire population of thecountry.'

Danielle said, 'That is a pretty cynical view.'

'It fits the facts. Even though the Confederacy was forced to remain in theUnion, they allowed West Virginia to secede from the state of Virginia duringthe war and become an independent state simply because they supported theUnion. This occurred in 1863.'

Rick said, 'So, it seems like we keep coming back to the same thing. If thingsget bad, and they probably will, there will be violence. If the governmentreacts as they have become accustomed to doing recently, which is almost certain,the violence will be worse, and will probably result in a civil war or a rebellionagainst the government.'

'The outcome would depend upon too many factors to predict accurately, butthe general prediction would be that there would be a lot of chaos, violence,and loss of life. If the dissident groups sieze their chance, which theyare almost certain to do, the government will be forced to react to defenditself. Many of these extremist groups do hate the government, and they doprovoke violent confrontations to achieve their goals.'

'The real problem will be in how the government responds. Although they area vocal minority, the extremist groups are easy to spot. But the governmentis likely to also take action against the much larger group of people whoare simply voicing their displeasure with the government and listing legitimategrievances which they have been trying to get the government to address properlyfor decades. They have a right to expect their representatives to look outfor their interests, and not to vote according to which political action committeeis giving them the biggest bribe for their campaign funds. They have a rightto be upset that the people they pay several times the income of the averagefamily, and provide with a house and expenses, think that they are entitledto be bribed in order to perform their job.'

Danielle said, 'Come on, Lee, you can't really consider the political contributionsto be bribes.'

'Our founding fathers did. They wanted the job to pay enough, but not somuch that someone would want to hold the job throughout his lifetime justfor the pay and benefits. They wanted the best and most qualified peopleto come, serve, and return to their private life. They believed that youcouldn't do your job and represent your constituents over a long period oftime because after a few years, you would no longer be as aware of your constituentswishes and needs.'

'But technology has changed all of that. They can hear from everybody, andstill never leave their offices.'

'You can hear from a certain group of people. Those with access to the technologyto contact you who wish to waste their time doing so.'

'What do you mean 'waste their time'? It isn't wasting their time to telltheir congressman what their concerns are.'

'It is when the congressman doesn't even see the messages. His staff of lifetimepoliticians and assistants, who know the ins and outs of the local politicalscene, screen his calls and correspondence. They summarize the messages intostatistical data, and give him the message that a certain percentage of hisconstituency is behind him on any particular issue. They filter the informationaccording to their own biases, and can even weight the data by saying thatthe 100 calls opposing a vote all came from an area that only represents 10%of his voters, while the 50 calls supporting the same vote came from areasrepresenting 90% of his voters. The statistical breakdown could then legitimatelysay that 90% of his voters want him to vote in favor of a particular topicwhen the real data says that 67% of his voters oppose the vote.'

'But congress isn't all bad. They aren't all interested in staying in officeforever, no matter what the cost.'

'Then why has congress made sure that although bills calling for term limitsare introduced regularly in order to pacify the people calling for a change,they are never brought out of committee and voted on? The people in powerknow that if it is called to a vote, they will either have to vote to giveup their power and lose their office, or they will be voted out of officeduring the next election by voters who are mad that they were lied to again. The old saying is that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.'

'Many senators know that there is no way for them to lose office between electionsunless they are impeached by their fellow senators. Even if 100% of theirconstituents want to remove them from office, it is almost impossible to dolegally. That means that except for elections, which hamper them somewhat,they are immune from any action taken by their constituents. If that is notalmost absolute power, I don't know what is. Even in the Federalist Papers,the supporters of our current form of government warned that getting a politicalelite, who ran the government for the duration of their lifetime, would quicklylead to corruption. Their opponents, who believed that the form of governmentproposed asked for too much loss of liberty for the protections promised inreturn, were much more specific in their criticisms. They were also moreadamant in reminding the people that they had just fought a war to removeone tyrant, and they didn't want to set up a form of government that wouldrequire their children or grandchildren to do the same.'

Kristin said, 'But the government didn't do that. It has been generationssince our government was established.'

'You are forgetting that a large percentage of the population did fight awar because they thought the government was neglecting their views and notrepresenting them. That occurred about four or five generations after thegovernment was founded, and it was not founded according to the plan put forthby the Federalists. It was modified by those who had more democratic ideals,and was greatly modified by one tiny addition, which was required by manyof the states that ratified the Constitution.'

Danielle said, 'What are you talking about?'

'Many of the states made their ratification contingent upon the inclusionof a Bill of Rights, which was already in the constitution of almost everystate.'

Naomi said, 'But the Federalists agreed, even in their Federalist Papers,that the people were entitled to the rights, and that they didn't need tobe enumerated by Congress.'

'But their enumeration, in writing, was exactly what kept the Civil War fromhappening before it did. The southern states almost didn't join the Unionbecause of the debate over slavery. By the time the Civil War occurred, eventhe southern states knew that slavery would be abolished within twenty orthirty years because it was becoming economically unfeasible.'

'Then why did they fight the Civil War over the slavery issue?'

'They didn't. By the 1860's the federal government was becoming a bureaucracy,and the political parties were becoming powerful enough to affect the waythe government was run. The Confederacy fought the war over the issue ofstates' rights. They were not happy with the government's increasing infringementinto areas which had previously been the domain of the individual states. Slavery was the issue which was used as a litmus test because previous agreementshad been worked out that it was the right of the state to decide whether ornot slavery would be legal within its borders when it became a state.'

Rick said, 'So, if we have another war, we will be fighting and nobody willknow the real reason for the war because it will probably not be the reasoncited by the media.'

'It will not be for the reason cited by the media, because that would notsell their story and make money for them. It would also not fit their views. But the people who fought would know why. It would be because they had theright to tell the government what rights and privileges they agreed to giveup to the government, and to tell the government what parts of their liveswere private. In other words, they had the right to tell the government whatthe government could and could not do.'

Kristin said, 'That sounds pretty inflexible to me. I mean, don't you haveto compromise to keep peace?'

'That particular viewpoint is the cornerstone of the Constitution. It saysthat the government has the rights which are given to it by the people. Allother rights are retained by the states, or by the people. That is the tenthamendment. It says nothing about giving congress the right to pass laws whichstrip those rights from the states or from the people. The only exceptionis to pass an amendment, which requires the people to ratify it before itbecomes law.'

'As far as inflexibility, any government that uses force to coerce the peopleinto giving up their rights in direct violation of the laws which supposedlygovern its operation is no longer a legitimate government. Once it is operatingoutside the law, it cannot be considered to be operating legally. Ben Franklinsaid, 'They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporarysafety deserve neither liberty nor safety.' He believed that you had to maintainyour rights to ensure that the government remained a servant of the peopleand not the other way around.'

Kristin said, 'But that doesn't mean that he would support a rebellion toforce the government to change more quickly just because the people were dissatisfied,does it?'

'Although he was a great diplomat and ambassador, Ben Franklin was one ofthe most influential of the rebels when it came to philosophy. He supportedthe revolution in this country, and also in France when they had their revolution. He maintained that we should always be active in our own government, to ensurethat it was truly representative of the wishes of the people.'

'He was not the only patriot to state that the people had to use the necessarymeans to maintain their freedom. Patrick Henry was one of the staunchestdefenders of personal liberties. He said, 'We are not weak if we make a properuse of those means which the God of nature has placed in our power...The battle,sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave.' I am sure that he believed that only through remaining active in our owngovernment, and making sure that it did not stray from its obligations tothe people, could we make sure that we remained free and did not have to fightto restore the proper order.'

Danielle said, 'And what would he have said if it became necessary to fightin order to retain your liberty?'

Rick smiled. He knew what was coming.

Naomi said, 'Patrick Henry is best remembered for one speech he made. Hisconclusion to that speech is often quoted in part. His last sentence is,'I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me liberty orgive me death.' I believe that means that he was perfectly willing to fightto retain his freedom, and was even willing to die in the process if necessary.'

I said, 'Remember one thing. Court documents have stated that our currentgovernment considers the private possession of certain documents in your hometo be subversive materials which are spread by groups whose aim is the overthrowof the legitimate government of this country.'

Kristin said, 'What's wrong with that? Some materials are subversive, orevenly openly seditious.'

I said, 'Yes, some are. But the documents I am referring to are the FederalistPapers, which the Supreme Court uses to determine the thinking of our foundingfathers on points of Constitutional law, the Constitution of the United Statesof America, and the Declaration of Independence. It seems that the governmentwants to make sure that the people are ignorant of whatever points they donot want contested at that particular time. The general attitude is thatthe government knows what is best for everyone, and if you need to know something,they will make sure that you are educated and informed.'

'What's wrong with that? You can't learn everything.'

'In a free society, the individual has the right to educate himself on anysubject of interest to better understand what is going on. Thomas Jeffersonsaid, 'If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization,it expects what never was and never will be.' He also said, 'Enlighten thepeople generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanishlike evil spirits at the the dawn of day.' Only by making informed decisionscan individuals make sure that their own best interests and liberties arepreserved. If you choose to trust the government for everything, rememberit is the same government that has made sure that forty percent of high schoolgraduates are functionally illiterate. They changed the educational system,and that is the result. They must accept responsibility for their actions,for many of the parents have fought to keep those changes from taking placefor decades.'

'But why would they want to undereducate the people? Wouldn't it also affecttheir own children's educations?'

'The majority of politicians, even at the state and local levels, send theirchildren to private or religious schools which have not been affected by thechanges they have made to the public education system.'

Rick said, 'What are some of the possible benefits or reasons for making surethat so many people are not educated to their full potential?'

'People who can not read, or who don't enjoy reading, only learn what theyare told. That makes them more controllable. People who are uneducated canonly expect to get low paying jobs or service industry jobs, making sure thatthey have no problem filling these positions with people who need the income. People who live from paycheck to paycheck do not have time for extra activities,making them less politically active. That makes them negligible in termsof politics. People who are struggling to survive do not rock the boat aslong as you make sure that they are not too cold, too hungry, or too bored. This makes them easy to control or pacify with a minimum investment of resources.'

'I know that all of this sounds bad, but it is all basic population dynamicsand applied psychology. Even people who don't have much don't want to risklosing what they have if you keep social conditions stable enough to preventthem from being pushed beyond the limits they will tolerate.'

Chapter 21

Naomi began supervising construction of our new homestead the next morning. She had set it up so that the construction would only take two weeks at most. All of the materials had already arrived and been checked to make sure thatthey were up to the specified standards.

The foreman didn't understand why the materials had to be so sturdy, but hedidn't argue. The contract with the company stated that all constructionwas to be to exact specifications or else it was to be immediately redoneat his expense. Naomi was to supervise the construction and approve or rejectall work done. He would have complained to his boss, but the job was importantto his company and his boss had approved the working conditions himself.

While Naomi was supervising the excavation and construction, the rest of thegroup resumed our meetings. The first meeting was spent going over the discussionthat had occurred during our drive and allowing everyone else to contributeto the analysis and discussion. Although a few people disagreed with somepoints, the consensus was that even if the reasoning was not completely thorough,it was accurate enough to give a representation of reality that everybodycould recognize and work with. Also, it was as accurate as most people wouldhave, so their decisions would generally be based on that information. Thatwould allow us to predict the likely consequences of certain occurrences basedon the probable attitudes and reactions of the people.

We worked on more detailed ideas of what people could do to prepare for theworst events, but most of the basics had already been covered. Many peoplewould be unable to stockpile their prescription medications either becausethe pharmacy would not cooperate, the regulations prohibited it, or becausethey couldn't afford to do so. We determined that as in all disasters, thebrunt of the suffering would be borne by the elderly, the infirm, the crippled,and the young. No big breakthrough there.

We added the hysteria caused by the changing of the millenium into our calculationsbecause there was too much disinformation by the media to educate the publicto the fact that they didn't have to worry about that particular event foranother entire year. Score one more victory for the liberal educators whohad managed to turn the education system into an indoctrination center forpolitical correctness instead of learning and thinking, of questioning tolearn how and why things happened instead of simply accepting that they didand that's how things are.

I introduced the parameters that I had intended to use to disseminate ourfindings. The group thought that some of them were good, but we got intosome pretty lengthy discussions concerning a few of the methods that I hadproposed. We debated for several days, and even considered some proposalsmade by other members of the group. We had made our decision before the nextweekly meeting, and agreed that we should inform Dan.

We met with Dan on the 20th. He was anxious because he understood that wewere almost finished with the first phase of our project. I told him thatexcept for a few details concerning the most likely events, we were finishedwith our projections. Once the details were completed, we could give himthe probable damages and our list of suggestions to allow the people to preparethemselves to survive. There would be no way to accurately predict the effectof our efforts because they would depend on the number of people who tookaction, what action they took, and how well they were able to prepare themselves.

Our own preparations were well underway, and would continue as soon as theweather would permit. The animals and some large plants were already storedand being prepared for spring. The seed was stored and waiting for planting. Some of the community projects were already being set up and would be readyto start running as soon as the raw goods were available.

We had a dairy set up, and would soon have a small canning facility set upto allow food to be canned on site. There was also storage space for feedand grain, and the kitchens had been set up to operate on their own. Water,electricity, and heat had been converted so that the facility was entirelyself sufficient and could be controlled manually if necessary. We had stockedfood and water so that there would be enough to allow us to survive untilwe could obtain enough crops to sustain us indefinitely.

Security for the facility had been upgraded, and construction on the physicalsecurity precautions would be complete within a month. The surrounding propertywhich would be used for homesteads by those who were interested had been purchased,and construction of the buildings and homes had already begun. Constructionwould be completed within a month to six weeks.

There would be about fifty homesteads, ranging in size from three to one hundredacres, depending on the wishes and intentions of the people who had boughtthem. Some needed woodlots to grow enough wood to cook and heat with, whileothers had chosen to go with other methods of cooking and heating. Some neededland for grazing animals, while others only wanted a small garden and somepoultry for eggs and meat. A few had even chosen to plant their own orchardsand berry patches to have fruit and nuts.

There would be fifty families living on the homesteads, ranging from a singleindividual to more than ten people in one house. Another eighty familieshad chosen to live here at the facility and form a small community. The totalwould be over 600 people, with almost 200 children.

Dan said, 'Wait a minute. We only have 250 employees. How many are staying?'

Rick said, 'Of your 250 employees, about 150 have decided to stay here. Another50 or so live locally and will join their families on their own land. Theother 50 have decided to leave and set up elsewhere or to join their families. Most of them have chosen not to take some of the basic supplies that wereavailable for each individual's minimum kit. The differences in numbers arebecause we have some married couples who both work here.'

Dan said, 'What supplies did the ones who have decided to leave refuse totake?'

I said, 'About ten of them refused to take anything except some gold and silver. About thirty of them took varying amounts of food and water, depending onthe individual, but refused to take any weapons or ammunition. Most of themalso refused to take any medications with them except for possibly some prescriptionmedicines that they take currently. The other ten took weapons, ammunition,gold, silver, medicine, and as much food and water as they could carry withthe transportation they had available.'

Rick said, 'That's right. How did you know? I only got the figures myselfthis morning, and I know that I haven't discussed it with you yet.'

I said, 'I guessed. I know the people who work in the group here are allstaying except for two or three, and they all take this seriously enough totake the precautions. They just want to be with their families in other partsof the country. The rest I guessed from skimming your personnel records andtalking to a few people.'

Dan said, 'I didn't authorize you to let Lee look at any confidential records,Rick, and I certainly didn't authorize you to let him examine the securityclearance files.'

I said, 'He didn't. All I needed to look at was the basic employee data sheetsyou maintain on your computers to allow the employees to know a little bitabout each other. By looking at where they were from, where they were educated,what they studied, and what their interests were, I was able to determinewhat their basic personality was. If you grew up in a liberal city, wereeducated in a liberal college, studied liberal subjects, and had intereststhat were all considered politically correct by liberals, you are probablya liberal. That means that you don't want anything to do with a gun, wouldn'tdream that the government can't handle any situation once it has a chanceto mobilize its vast resources, and don't believe in stockpiling food andwater like some crazy survival nut.'

Dan said, 'That's impossible. I was born and raised in a liberal city, attendedliberal universities, and majored in liberal arts. Many of my friends areliberals. So how do you explain the fact that I am not a liberal and I amgetting this project completed?'

'You grew up in a liberal city, but you had to work as a kid to help makeends meet. You went to the liberal university because you had a scholarship. Although you studied liberal arts, many of your activities and electiveswere not politically correct. You also list hunting, skeet shooting, wildernesscamping, and martial arts among your interests. None of those are high onthe list for any true liberal, who doesn't want anyone to have a gun excepthim and his friends. But he doesn't want anyone to know that he has a big,nasty gun because then they might say that he's a hypocrite when he tellsthem that there is no reason for them to need one.'

Dan said, 'OK, Lee, you made your point. It doesn't take classified materialto make the conclusions you reached. But I assumed that it did because Ididn't think about approaching the problem from the direction that you did. I also assumed that you would need to know specific details to make a generalconclusion or prediction. You think that the government may respond the sameway when we issue our report to the people. Why?'

'First, because that is how they are conditioned to react. Most people assumethat just because they have been trained to believe they need certain detailsto make a conclusion, everyone else does too. Second, if the government cansilence you with some threat for using classified material, the press makesyou the bad guy and distorts the facts behind the story in the interest ofsecurity. Third, since your report is critical of the government, they don'twant a lot of people hearing about it before they can discredit you, yourmethods, and your findings. Fourth, the longer they can delay the report,the less you can affect the outcome. Since their own agencies can't developnew predictions if we significantly alter the picture, they won't be ableto keep the upper hand if we alter the events they anticipate.'

Dan said, 'So how are we going to issue our findings?'

'We intend to use multiple methods simultaneously. Some are intentionallydirected to appear crazy, but they provide cover for the more important methods. The idea is to get enough information out quickly enough that the governmentonly makes our report more legitimate by responding to it at all. Any responsemakes it more likely that the people will listen to us and take action, sothey are forced to leave us alone or they will make things even worse fromtheir own point of view.'

'So, how do we do that, Lee?'

'We start with the approach that will guarantee us the least amount of harassment. We simultaneously offer our book through all of the supermarket rags as aprivate printing. The government never takes anything offered through theWeekly World News, The Sun, The National Enquirer, or other sensational sourcesseriously. We also post copies of our report on the web at various survivalpages. Some of our people get on the net and spread the word through thechat rooms, listing places where they can download our material for free ororder a copy of the full report. We also put another version out as a fictionalizedaccount, which the government can't attack without making it seem like wearen't really doing fiction. It will be sold either through a publisher orby private printing, depending on whether or not we can get an acceptablecontract with a publisher. We can have the book ready to go to the presswithin two or three weeks. If we do it ourselves, we could have several thousandcopies printed and bound a few weeks after that.'

'Why would we want to do it ourselves?'
'Less problem with delays, more reliability, and we keep all of the profits. We also have no security problem, and we have total control over the contentsand setup of the various forms of the book and report. There will be no problemwith someone finding out about the contents of the book or report until werelease it. By then, it will be too late for the government to stop the publicfrom learning the facts and being able to take action to protect and preparethemselves for any emergency.'

'Did I hear you say that we will keep all of the profits?'

'Yes. The only way to make this fly is to really sell the book. The publicwon't be as skeptical because they had to pay money for it. Different versionswill be priced differently, but the contents will be essentially the same. Any profits will only help offset the expenditures the company has alreadymade.'

'OK, you've covered the mass marketing approach that will keep the governmentfrom giving us grief. Now tell me about the other approach that will reallyget the information to some of the people who might use it to make sure thatothers take it seriously and listen to our suggestions.'

'You, and every executive in this company, will send a copy by e-mail to everymajor corporation that you have close ties with. The recipients will be peoplewho you know by name and by reputation. You will explain to them that thereport is not a hoax, and that you are sending it to them so they and theiremployees may have a chance to make whatever preparations they consider necessary. All you ask is that they read the report with an open mind and then decidefor themselves if there is a possibility that you are correct. You will eveninvite comments or criticisms of the report.'

'Why would we do that?'

'Because they will try to show that you are wrong if they don't believe thereport. If their own investigations don't convince them, they will stillcorrespond with you to try to convince you. This will allow you to show themany errors in their arguments and to show them more proof of your own results.'

'Why would we want to do that when we know that those who attack our reportwill probably not believe it no matter what we say?'

'Because if you get them arguing about it with you, they will take it personally. Then they will tell others about your report and how they couldn't make yousee your errors no matter how hard they tried.'

'And that spreads the word, and allows us the chance to convince even morepeople that they should be making preparations of their own. That is slick,Lee. Not only do we reach more people, but some of the interest we generatemay even help to finance the entire project.'

'You should be warned that there is a distinct possibility of a down sideto this project. If we are successful, the government may be out of business. People are already just about to the breaking point, and the complete disdainwith which the government has handled the problem when they had time to solveit easily is not going to make those in power very popular. They know thatif enough people get pissed enough to fight, it will be the end of businessas usual.'

'Also, if we are able to prevent or significantly reduce the stock marketcrash, those who were counting on it are not going to be happy with us. Theydon't care about the people or the economy as long as they make the killingof a lifetime. They may use some of their money to influence politiciansto target us so they can have their revenge. The more powerful and corrupta person becomes, the more petty and vindictive they tend to be toward thosewho interfere with their plans.'

'If that happens, things could get bad. Of course, if things get bad in general,you will have the satisfaction of knowing that many of those individuals willbe marked for punishment or death by many of the people whose lives they triedto ruin. Once a civil war or insurrection starts, the rebels tend to takeout their old grievances on those they hold responsible. Some rich and influentialpeople have made a lot of enemies during their lifetime, and they don't evenknow who many of them are because they made decisions affecting the livesof the nameless, faceless masses without a second thought to anything excepttheir profit margin.'

'That doesn't sound very nice when you put it that way, Lee.'

'Life isn't nice, or fair. But sometimes justice does happen in the universe,even when humans are involved. That is reality. Shit happens.'

Chapter 22

Rick said, 'Lee, we've gone over the best and worst case scenarios, and wehave worked out the basic list of things that can be done to minimize theproblems. We are all satisfied with the procedures we have worked out fordissemination of the report. That only leaves the most probable scenarioto be gone over. We can't be exact right now on our estimates of how severeeach individual problem will be, or where it will occur, but we can make somebasic estimates of the broad picture and its implications. Is that correct?'

'Yes. Without more details about what changes will be made before the problemsoccur, we can't be specific on either numbers or locations. However, we cangive a generalized picture of what will probably occur unless steps are takento prevent it. Most of the current action is really inaction. Although manycompanies are telling their customers that they are doing everything to correctthe problem, they are not taking it seriously behind closed doors. If theyfind a problem that they consider critical, they are taking some steps tocorrect it, but they are not concerned with eliminating the root cause, andare taking whatever steps are cheapest as long as their experts tell themthat it will correct everything with the exception of a few minor bugs whichmay have to be worked out in the system.'

'Does this present a real problem in terms of fixing the errors?'

'Yes. Many of those in charge do not understand the time delay in finding,fixing, and testing these "minor bugs" in the system. They ignore or havealready forgotten the credit card problems which took six months to find andfix. The size of the company or utility won't affect the time involved infixing the problem that much.'

'What do you mean? There is a lot of difference in the number of programs,their complexity, and the size of the programs used by a multinational corporationand a small private business, isn't there?'

'On the surface, that is true. But the problem is easily diagnosed. If yourcomputer won't recognize new cards that have been activated because it saysthey are expired or out of date, the problem is in your date verificationsubroutines. You don't have to correct a million lines of code to rewritethose subroutines, and they are not hard to find in the program. Any programmerwho tells you differently is either lying or doesn't know what he is doingwith the program he is responsible for correcting. If the proper action hadbeen taken when the problem was discovered, there would be no problem.'

Dan said, 'OK, so what is the bottom line? What should we really be readyto expect even if the companies are just using PR to calm the public down?'

'There will be power outages in some places. Probably in many or most regionsin the country. Some will be a few hours, while others will last for days. In some regions, the outages will last for weeks or months. This will becritical if it happens in the areas that supply the desert regions with electricityto pump their water from deep underground reservoirs, or those that supplysouthern California with the water to irrigate its crops.'

'In the areas most affected, water and sanitation will also be affected. This will lead to increased outbreaks of disease, and some deaths from foodand water shortages. The more widespread the problem, the more severe theoutcome. Our estimates are that, depending on the locations affected, itwould only take ten to twenty percent of the U.S. to be subjected to systemsfailures before the ability of the government to handle the emergency responseswould be overwhelmed. The resources just aren't there to cope with somethingof that magnitude.'

'There will be some human problems in any affected region as soon as the crashoccurs. This will increase damages, and will greatly decrease the abilityof the government to cope with the real emergency areas because it will taketime to reestablish order and repair damages in areas that would have beenonly temporarily affected.'

Dan said, 'Pardon the interruption, but define "human problems" so we allunderstand exactly what we are talking about having to deal with, even inareas that won't really be affected. What will we have to be ready to dealwith?'

'Human problems covers the list of things that are directly attributable tohuman actions and have nothing to do with the systems failures directly. This includes increased criminal activity, rioting, arson, violence committedby various groups who target other groups of individuals, panic, and evensuicides and violence by groups who believe that the "end of the millenium"is God's time of reckoning and the end of civilization as we know it.'

'There is the possibility that foreign governments may use the opportunityto strike while America is less able to respond effectively. Such actionsmay include terrorist attacks, chemical attacks, biological attacks, and evenlimited small scale nuclear attacks if they believe that the military systemsare significantly affected. With the number of foreign nationals inside thiscountry, some of whom are known to be spies or plants, this is almost certainto happen on some scale, but it would be difficult or impossible to provethat the countries responsible were actually involved in most small scaleactivities.'

'There is the possibility that our own government, or some of its agents actingeither on their own authority or on verbal commands, may overrespond duringany crisis response and use any excuse to eliminate some of what they considerto be troublemakers who have twisted the law for their own protection. Thisis also almost certain to happen on some scale. It would not take much forthis to cause those who think they may be targets to react and begin retaliationson federal and state agents and government workers that they know about anddo not like. Many of them are better prepared to survive in those conditions,and have a better communication system worked out that does not rely on outsidesources or power.'

'If there are any widespread systems failures in the power grid, or a cascadeeffect happens because emergency cutoffs fail, there is the possibility ofdamage to some of the power generation systems. If there are computer malfunctionsin the power plant itself, more damage will occur. This won't be importantif it doesn't significantly prolong the loss of power, unless the plant isnuclear. Glitches causing systems failures or improper sensor readings mayrequire the entire plant to be completely shut down manually until all systemsand sensor relays are checked and verified manually. Failure to do so couldresult in an accident ranging from an emergency core shutdown to a core meltdown.'

Dan said, 'What would the consequences be if a core meltdown occurred?'

'It would probably be worse than Chernobyl. Our nuclear plants are set updifferently, and they contain more fissionable material. A meltdown wouldbreach the nuclear containment and spew a radioactive cloud into the atmosphere. Prevailing winds would disperse the particles over an area the size of alarge state. Cleanup and decontamination would be enormous undertakings,even if that was the only thing the government had to handle at the time.

'The affected area, depending on the spread and concentration of radiation,would range from dangerous for humans to spend extended periods of time into lethal to humans. Without cleanup, the land would be poisoned for centuries,and any animals or plants in the area would be mutated by the high backgroundradiation levels. Crops grown in the contaminated soil would be unsafe forconsumption. Cancer would become more prevalent in those exposed or who atecontaminated food or water.'

'The emergency responders who had to deal with the containment would probablyall suffer from radiation poisoning, and many would accumulate lethal dosesbefore the meltdown was contained. At Chernobyl, Russian soldiers ran upand threw dirt and concrete onto the exposed reactor core to eventually buryit and limit the spread of radiation. Many of them knew that they were takinglethal doses of radiation within minutes, but they kept working until theywere unable to continue. Some of them were saved by bone marrow transplants,but it took months to years of hospitalization and intensive treatment beforethey recovered.'

Dan said, 'What about food and water, Lee? You skimmed over that earlier,but you must have some idea of what the general picture will be.'

'Water will be available in any area that retains power as long as rioting,sabotage, or other human factors do not interfere with the plant operation. In other areas, emergency measures will be taken to make sure that the watertreatment facilities remain in operation. There may be problems with waterquality. It won't do much good to have water in the system if the residentsmust boil it themselves before they can drink it. Especially if most of theresidents have no way to boil the water safely. There may also be instanceswhere a computer malfunction in the treatment makes the water lethal. Someof the chemicals used in water treatment are toxic if the concentration istoo high, and they are not continuously tested as long as the computer saysthat the readouts for the amount added are normal.'

'Food will be a problem in many areas. There will be some communicationsand computer failures, and these will affect transportation significantly. Some places won't be able to pump fuel from their storage tanks so that carsand trucks can refuel, and others will run out of fuel because deliveriesare messed up. This will cause congestion and routing problems. Much ofthe food in this country is shipped frozen or refrigerated to retain freshness,and there will be problems maintaining normal temperatures and handling procedures. There will be increased loss of produce during shipping because of this andincreased shipping times. The normal result is higher prices and rationing,both of which will contribute to the anxiety of the consumers who live inthose areas.'

'If the telephones are usable, it could cause even more problems. Those whoknow that their loved ones live in an area without power, water, and heat,will be really worried and trying to do what they can to help them. Peoplewill be trying to leave affected areas to find an area where things are normal. This will strain the resources of the areas where they have a sudden, unexpectedinflux of population. Other people will be trying to travel to the most affectedareas. Some will be trying to bring in needed supplies, while others willbe trying to make a profit by selling necessary items at black market prices. Others will be going there to steal what they can from those who have abandonedtheir homes.'

John said, 'Lee, go over the parameters we discussed so Dan has an idea ofwhat the problems will be in general, and what levels are required for effectswe are discussing. That will allow him to estimate the scope of the problemand also understand why we can't make accurate predictions right now. Atleast not predictions with the detail he was hoping for.'

'I will go over the general parameters first, so that you understand how wecan predict some of the problems typical of certain locations which wouldnot affect other geographic locations under the same conditions.'

'Power failures will be more destructive in the north because loss of heatin January is more critical in colder climates. Secondary effects will behypothermia, freezing pipes in homes and businesses, and loss of water treatmentin prolonged outages. They will also be critical in desert areas that dependon power to pump water from deep underground reservoirs or to pump it fromdistant sources. The effect of power losses will be most significant in thecities. The larger the population center, the more damage will occur dueto primary loss of light and heat, secondary effects, and panic within thepopulation.'

'Loss of water will be most significant in areas of desert or those areaswithout sufficient surface water sources to allow the population to surviveon what can be gathered and purified. Water rationing will affect the survivalof the individuals within about a week to ten days in cold weather. Totallack of water will affect survival within two to three days for healthy individuals. Drinking polluted or contaminated water would probably be worse for mostpeople than not drinking anything. Diarrhea and vomiting from infectionscaused by drinking contaminated water can dehydrate your body in hours insteadof days. Without sufficient fluids to rehydrate you, and medicine to controlthe infection, you will die.'

'Loss of communication won't significantly affect most people immediately,but it can tie up resources that would normally be routed to relieve the shortagesin the affected areas and fix the problem. It would be like an army supplyfoul-up where you got shipped cold weather survival gear in the summer insteadof the mosquito netting and water that you required. Communications willbe required to allow those in charge to determine where the problems are worst,what the specific problem requires, what the people in each location needthe most, and what they have available at each emergency response location.'

'Medical care will be a primary concern, and will increase in importance asthe severity or length of the shortages increase. Hospitals will run outof the drugs and medical supplies if they can't receive shipments to replacetheir stocks. Even the warehouses within the cities may not be useful becausethey will be shut down and will remain high priority targets for those whowant to steal drugs. In a power outage, their security systems will be lesseffective.'

'The more extensive the problems with financial institutions, the more problemsthere will be with cash flow even in areas unaffected by power failures. Without money or credit, you can not buy the things you need to survive evenif they are available and the stores are open for business as usual.'

'The larger the affected area, the more complicated it is to organize reliefefforts and make sure that the needs of everyone are met. The first responseis to send supplies to the major population centers, but even there it isdifficult to make sure that people are not overlooked. Distance becomes theproblem when trying to make sure that the people in less densely populatedareas receive the things they need to survive. It takes more time and resourcesper person helped to distribute the supplies even when you use centralizeddistribution centers for disaster relief.'

'In order to understand the complexity, here are some of the general guidelineswe worked out. Remember that you will have less time for some things to befixed and more time for others to be fixed depending on location, weather,and the exact local situation. Also, remember that if twenty percent or moreof the country is affected for any length of time, the government will begenerally overwhelmed by the scope of the problem and will be unable to respondeffectively in many cases for an extended period of time.'

'If 80% or more of the country is affected for more than three days, therewill be problems with food, water, and heat in most areas. If the problemlasts more than two weeks, people will die of dehydration, disease, and othercauses. Many medical problems will be aggravated by the lack of medical careand the decreased availability of many prescription drugs.'

'If 50% of the country is affected, it will probably take about seven daysfor problems with food and water to become noticable. It may also take upto three weeks before disease and lack of water become major problems, dependingon the ability of unaffected areas to send in relief supplies.'

'If 10% of the country is affected, it will depend on the location as to howsevere the problem is. In densely populated areas, the lack of water willcause problems within three days, and relief efforts could be complicatedby urban violence. In sparsely populated areas, the amount of relief wouldbe dramatically decreased, and concentrated efforts by the government couldconceivably limit the damage to almost negligible levels.'

Dan said, 'OK. I understand the parameters. Now, what is the most likelyresult?'

'Probably thirty to fifty percent of the country will be affected by one ormore major systems failures for more than two weeks. Electrical failureswill only mask the financial failures for a week or more in most other areas. When the population realizes that they still have their debts, but theircash and savings are tied up in a bank where they can't get it out to usefor their needs, they will get pissed. It will only get worse if their creditcards are not usable, and they can't cash checks because the computer systemfor verifying available funds is working too slowly, if at all.'

'Heating will become a problem in most affected areas within days, as willcooking the food that they do have available. Water will be a problem withintwo days of the failure of the water treatment facility in each location. Most hospitals will want to cut back on services, but will probably be filledbeyond capacity. Their generators aren't designed and maintained for prolongedconstant use, and getting the fuel to keep them running will become a problem. Their operation will also be severely affected by any water shortage. Hospitalsuse enormous amounts of water for washing, bathing, laundry, sterilization,consumption, and treatment.'

'Food will become a problem when local supplies run out. Barring outsidedeliveries to stores, and allowing that some food will be distributed or soldfrom the stores to help out in the emergency, most people will begin to runout of food in about seven days. After another seven days, they will reallybe out of food, and starting to get hungry. The poor will have less timethan those with money, but those who are used to eating regularly think thatthey are starving if they miss one or two meals. They are also less inclinedto use every last bit of food before claiming that they are starving becausethey have nothing to eat. Of course, with no safe way to cook much of theirfood, they may have some food left that is just not usable.'

'With no power, frozen food will begin to thaw. If it is cold enough outside,you could store some of it in a cooler to make it last longer. Generally,food in a freezer will keep for three days, but you lose time with each timeyou open the freezer, especially if you don't get in and out quickly. Refrigeratedfood has about the same life expectancy. Some food that is normally refrigeratedwill keep for weeks at room temperature. Butter, hard cheese, condiments,and pickles are good examples. Carrots and cabbage will store in a cool,dry room for weeks, although they will start to lose some of their appealas they dry out some. Carrots get soft and spongy over time.'

'The problem will probably be more severe than either the government or theprivate sector want to admit. They are worried about liability if they admitthat they know how bad things can get, especially since they have had yearsto prepare and have chosen to largely ignore the problem and hope it goesaway or doesn't really happen. They have not only failed to educate the public,but they have actively discouraged any real attempts to educate the publicin how to prepare for or survive disasters on their own. All of the materialsavailable for natural or other disasters suggest that you have a few suppliesto help keep you comfortable until everything is back to normal in a few days. Anyone who wants to stock up and prepare for extended periods of survivalon their own is ridiculed as a survival nut or some kind or paranoid who insistson worrying about things that could never happen.'

Chapter 23

Dan said, 'We understand the problems now, so what are we specifically goingto suggest that people do to prepare for this emergency or any others thatmight affect them? Give me the basic suggestions for someone who has a limitedbudget and limited storage space available.'

'Water is one of their primary concerns. Fill empty two liter bottles withtap water and add about two drops of chlorine bleach. Screw the cap on tightly,and store in a closet or somewhere out of the way. The water should keepfor about six months without going stale. If it tastes stale, pour it intoa clean pan and then pour it back and forth between that pan and another cleanpan for a few minutes to aerate it again and make it taste better. The wateris cheap, and the bottles are readily available by simply rinsing out andusing your old soda bottles after you drink the contents.'

'Food can be stocked by buying slightly more than you use and storing theexcess. This limits you to canned and dried foods, but you only buy thingsyou already eat. You will need water to rehydrate and cook dried beans, pasta,and other things in addition to what you need to drink. Stock up on whateverspices you like, since they will make your food taste better. You will alsoneed to provide some method of preparing food. Cans can be opened with amanual can opener, and canned fruits, vegetables, and meat can be eaten withoutcooking in a survival situation. However, a small hibachi or barbecue grillcan be used to heat up food if you have it outside or in a ventilated area. A grill can use dried wood or charcoal to make the fire. Camping cookstovesand fuel can also be stored to provide for cooking if you have the resources.'

'Heat can be provided by an emergency source such as a kerosene heater, butyou are limited by the fuel availability. A fireplace can be used to heatand cook if you have it maintained and store the wood. You can get survivalblankets for under $10 each, and they will keep you warm and dry. You canput a mattress on the floor and arrange the furniture with a few blanketsto make an emergency tent inside a house with no heat. Just one or a fewpeople huddled in your "tent" will generate enough heat to keep you from freezingto death. Sleeping bags rated to about ten degrees fahrenheit are also readilyavailable for less than $40.'

'Matches, butane lighters, and various forms of firestarters are readily availableat low cost, so starting a fire should not be a problem regardless of howpoor you are. I have seen people who claimed that they were so poor thatthey didn't have enough money to eat pull out a pack of cigarettes and lightup. It is not that hard to find something to start a fire with.'

'If you are serious about having light in an emergency, buy a stock of candles,some oil lamps and oil, or a small generator flashlight. You could buy asolar battery charger if you had the money. Otherwise, flashlights that requirebatteries are a short term solution to lighting problems.'

'Stock up on first aid supplies. Go to a discount store or a dollar storeand buy band-aids, tape, aspirin, cold medicine, anti-diarrhea medicine, coughdrops, peroxide, alcohol, baby wipes, and medicine for upset stomach. Buyany other medicine that you use regularly, and try to stock up on your prescriptiondrugs so that you don't run out if something happens that keeps you from gettinga refill for at least a week or two longer than normal.'

'Make sure that you have a radio to receive emergency reports and news. Youcan also improve your morale by listening to music to relieve boredom. Someradios eat batteries, so you want to make sure you have plenty, or that youget a radio that doesn't take so much juice to run. Using earphones can increaseyour battery life on some radios. There are also radios available which operateon their own internal generator. Crank the handle for a few minutes, andthey run for thirty minutes. These radios cost a little more, but they requireno batteries. If you have to use it for a week, the cost of the batterieswill offset the difference in the cost of the radios.'

'Make sure that you have some fire extinguishers around if you are using openflames for heating or lighting. You don't want to burn your house down aroundyou just by trying to keep yourself warm and fed. Be paranoid about firesafety in an emergency. It's better to check everything three or four timesto make sure that there is no danger than it is to catch your house on fire.'

'Get some books or games that don't need electricity. Boredom is a primarycause of cabin fever, and distractions such as reading or playing some boardor card games can be educational and entertaining.'

'You can play darts if you have a dart board. You can even teach someoneto shoot in the privacy of your own home. If you set up a board for a backdrop,you can use a dart board as a target for a blowgun. Or you can set up a boxfilled with old newspapers and use it as a backdrop for paper targets anduse an air rifle or BB gun to shoot BBs at the target for fun or competition. The BBs are reusable, and there is almost no noise or mess to clean up.'

'You need to plan for what you are likely to face in your area. Hurricanescan cause you to lose power for extended periods of time, but they usuallygive some warning. Tornadoes don't affect as large an area, but they strikewithout any warning. Blizzards occur in winter. If you think that you mayhave no power during a blizzard, you do what you can to make sure you havesupplies for a week or two.'

Steve said, 'What are some of the things that many people tend to overlookor forget when they are preparing for an emergency, and what can they do toprevent that?'

'If you don't have electricity, your Mr. Coffee doesn't work, and the coffeepot that it uses can explode if you use it on a stove burner. If you absolutelyhave to have coffee, you need to make sure that you have a percolator thatcan be used on a fire unless you want to use instant coffee. If you don'thave a percolator, a teapot can be used to heat water efficiently. Many kindsof tea actually contain more caffeine than coffee.'

'People with children tend to forget that the microwave and refrigerator bothgo out at the same time. They will need powdered or canned formula, or powderedmilk for their babies. Also, they will have to heat up the formula in a panor have a glass bottle so they can heat it in a pan of water if their childneeds warm formula. Milk won't keep without refrigeration, and few peoplebreastfeed any more.'

'Many people either don't have, or don't remember where they put their manualcan opener, and their electric one won't work in many emergency situations. You can open cans without a can opener, but it can become dangerous. Itis also dangerous to heat an unopened can on a fire or in boiling water. If it explodes, it can send shrapnel for several feet at least.'

'Once you have something heated up, you can still use your thermos to keepit warm for an extended period of time. It's just as easy to make a pot ofcoffee as it is to make a cup, and the rest can be stored in a thermos soyou don't have to keep a fire going all of the time to keep it warm.'

'If your diet is changed, you can maintain nutrition by taking vitamins. Most people who have them forget to take them when their normal routine ischanged. Also, most people forget that when they are operating in a coldenvironment, or when their heat in the house is reduced, and they are workingmore than normal, they can burn two to three times their normal number ofcalories, so they will have to eat more to maintain weight. Your brain requiresa minimum of 600 calories a day from glucose to operate normally and preventbrain damage. You don't have to eat that much sugar, but you do have to eatenough for your body to produce that much glucose for your brain.'

'Many people forget that they should drink a lot of water each day to remainhealthy. They need to plan on each person drinking two two-liter bottlesof water each day, and plan any water storage program around that amount perday for the number of days they want to prepare for. They also usually forgetto plan for the normal food, water, and other needs for their pets.'

'Many people think that buying a handgun or a shotgun and a box of shellsis a magic cure for the problem of burglars or rioters. If they get out thegun and show everyone that they are armed, everyone will be afraid and justgo away and leave them alone. Not only is it dangerous to own a gun withouthaving the training to store and use it safely, it is often only going tomake a situation worse if you show people your gun or threaten to shoot themwhen you are not ready to do whatever it takes to survive the situation.'

'Those few instances provide the statistics that the people who want to banall guns use to show how guns can be used against the owner, often resultingin injury or death to the owner or a family member. There are no statisticsfor the number of times that a gun owner used his gun to frighten off a burglar,rapist, or murderer without firing a shot, but the best estimates are thatit happens at least 1000 times more often than the burglar disarming the ownerand using his own gun on him. Also, the statistics do not discriminate betweensomeone finding the gun and using it on the owner and someone taking the gunaway from the owner and using it on him.'

'Taking the time to prepare and train is the most important factor we canemphasize. It doesn't do you much good to have the best gear and all thestate of the art equipment that you could ever need in any emergency situationif you don't know how to use it properly. Someone cooking on an open firein a pit is going to survive if they know how to do it. You won't surviveif you manage to set up your portable propane stove so that it explodes whileyou are sitting there cooking with it.'

'Learn what you may need to be able to do, then take the time to make surethat you can do it if the need arises. You are the only one who can decidewhat you are willing to do, and an "expert" can only help by making suggestionsbased on what you tell him you want and what you have to spend.'

Dan said, 'Why so much stress on the importance of what the individual iswilling to do? How important is it really, compared to what they have beenable to prepare for?'

'All the preparations and training in the world are not enough to make surethat you survive a disaster or emergency. They increase the likelihood thatyou will survive if you respond appropriately. People panic, and forget allof their training sometimes. This can even happen to professionals. Accidentshappen. Things you can't train for or prepare for happen unexpectedly. Allyou can do is prepare for what you believe is reasonably possible.'

'Even with all the preparations, training, resources, and everything thatmoney can buy, in the event of civil disorder, there are people who are goingto die simply because they decided not to kill someone who was threateningto kill them and their family. Many people have been conditioned by our societyto the point that they are physically incapable of killing someone else, evenin self defense. Many others are able to kill, but only when pushed to thepoint that there is no other choice. In a survival situation, this is toolate. If you won't kill someone who is overtly threatening you and planningto kill you until he is already shooting, you or someone with you may alreadybe dead before you fire your first shot in self defense. If that happens,all of your preparations and training have been for nothing. If it doesn't,then preparing for the emergency will probably allow you to survive.'

'This may seem extreme, but you have to remember that the government has beeneducating the people that they have the right to get some things regardlessof their own actions. They believe that they have the right to be given thingswithout regard for the rights of the owner. "You got this, I want it, soyou have to give it to me or share it with me because it ain't right for youto keep everything for yourself when I need it." What they ignore is thefact that they believe that they do have the right to keep everything theyhave, even if someone else needs it more. They believe that they are always"me" and everybody else is always "you". This thinking is typical of a spoiledthree year old, not a responsible adult. And that is the key clue. Theydo not accept responsibility for their own actions, so they are not responsibleadults.'

'If you do not take social and personal interactions into account when preparing,you will not be making preparations for anything except the physical dangers. You can prepare to put out the fires on your block, and be perfectly safeto respond to fires on most occasions. However, if you try to put out thefires started by a mob during a riot or some book burning, you had bettertake snipers and the possibility of being in the middle of a shooting warinto account if you want to survive.'

'If there is a major disaster, and the government is unable to respond quicklyto your particular location, you will have different dangers than the nextcity where they have 5000 military troops patrolling and handing out reliefkits. If your streets are filled with angry, armed, hungry mobs who "know"that you have food, you will probably be on your own. You can fight, andpossibly die if they overrun your position, they shoot you, or you run outof ammo before they run out of fight. You can run, and possibly die if theycatch you. Or you can try to convince them either that the food is yoursand they should have got their own food when they could, or that you don'thave any food. Either of the choices of convincing a mob that they are wrongonly works in the movies. You will die or will be beaten almost to deathif you allow that choice to happen. If they find food, they are almost certainto kill you. If they don't, they may torture you to make you tell them whereyou hid all the food you have that you wouldn't share with them.'

'If there is a mob, you are in a survival situation. Mobs do not listen toreason. If any of them were thinking rationally, they would not be a mob. You can run from it or you can kill it. Killing a mob means injuring orkilling enough of the individuals that the ones who are left realize thatthey are in danger and should get the hell away from here. Once this happens,they are beginning to think again, and they are no longer a mob. The problemwith trying to kill a mob is that once they can think again, the members willrationalize their actions and blame you for the deaths and injuries sufferedby their friends and family members. They will then attempt to get even forthe terrible things that you have done to them. They may try to use the lawand courts against you, they may try to murder you, or they may do both atthe same time.'

'The bottom line is that in a true survival situation, those who survive ina city will have to maintain a very low profile to avoid detection by thosewho are willing to kill to steal what they want or need to survive. If youare alone or in a small group, you probably have too much stuff to transporteasily, but not enough strength and firepower to make sure that nobody triesto take your property away from you.'

'This is not much of a problem in normal times because disasters are limitedin scope and duration, and the unaffected area has much more resources andmanpower than is required to provide quick and efficient disaster relief. However, if the disaster is widespread, and the problem takes a long timeto correct, human nature will surface, and there will be violence. How youprepare to deal with that violence will determine whether or not you havea high probability of survival even if you have adequately prepared for everyother eventuality.'

'There are people who believe that guys are big, bad, tough, macho men, andthey can handle anything as long as they act tough. They even believe thatno woman can ever learn how to handle a gun as good as any man can, and thatthey have the right and even the responsibility to disarm any female theyfind with a gun to show that they are right and to protect her from her geneticignorance. They are a part of the problem. I can only hope that they learnthe difference between arrogance and ignorance without having to find outwhy so many snipers in the Russian army of World War II and the Israeli armyof today are women.'

'The bottom line is that there will be problems associated with Y2K, and anyonewho is willing to prepare for them can make sure that he has the resourcesto survive even if the government collapses, which is not likely to happen. The problems that are more difficult to predict accurately are all associatedwith the response to the problems that occur. If people go crazy and panicin a bid for survival after ignoring all the warnings and refusing to prepareon their own, there may be widespread death and disease. The civil war couldeven change the structure of our entire civilization.'

'If everyone takes the remaining time and makes the necessary preparations,they will survive until the country is back on its feet and our technologyhas been restored. Then they will be able, if they choose, to hold the governmentand those responsible for utilities and industry responsible for their deliberaterefusal to solve the problem before it caused so much damage and inconvenience. Then they will determine what to do if those responsible are not held accountableby the courts and the government.'

Chapter 24

Dan said, 'So, technically, except for any specific information we may includeto provide those who want to prepare with some idea of what items they mayneed and where they may be able to find any specialty items or reasonablesubstitutes, we are actually finished with this phase of the project. Isthat correct?'

'Yes. All we need to do is disseminate our findings and our suggestions,and we have already discussed how we plan to accomplish that.'

Danielle said, 'Kristin and I have discussed something between ourselves,and we think that we need to include the psychological evaluation sectionof our report in any copies that we disseminate, especially those that wepost on the web. We should also make sure that it is included in the fictionalizedaccounts to increase awareness of the problem.'

Dan said, 'Why would we want to include something like that in our reports,especially in the fictionalized accounts?'

Kristin said, 'Because the idea is to make people aware of the problem andget them talking about it. This material is controversial, so people willtalk about it. Whether they agree with it or not, they will talk about it,and that will make them consider the problem. Also, if they talk about it,those they talk to will find out about the material and have a chance to examineit for themselves. We will improve our dissemination by word of mouth. Ourobject is to make the information available to as many people as possible.'

Rick said, 'I agree. If it is controversial, people will talk about it. Those who agree will try to get their friends and acquaintances to read it. Those who disagree will attack the report and its findings, generating alot of interest and publicity. Then the "experts" will tear our report apartin the media to show how mistaken our findings are. This will just make alot of people pay attention because if it was written as fiction and it wasjust a bunch of B.S. that didn't mean anything, why is so much effort beingtaken to totally discredit the report and its findings?'

Dan said, 'Meaning that where there's smoke, there's fire?'

Danielle said, 'Exactly. By drawing so much attention to the book in orderto discredit it, the government makes sure that everyone knows that thereis more to the book than just a complete work of fiction.'

Dan said, 'But why would they do that? Don't they know that is exactly whatwill happen? Why wouldn't they just ignore the book and minimize the impactit would have?'

I said, 'They can't. They know that acknowledging the book only increasespublic awareness, but they risk getting fired if they let the book alone. Those in power have a history of making sure that any book or topic thatthey consider a threat to the security of classified material or studies mustbe discredited. Even though they know that it only confirms the validityof the material to the public, they can't ignore it and allow it to be confirmedand validated by official silence. It's a catch 22 of their own making.'

Dan said, 'So, if they respond to us, they increase publicity and show thatwe are telling at least a part of the truth and they don't want that informationmade public. If they don't respond to us, they are afraid that the publicitywill make sure that everyone learns what we are talking about is true, andthey don't want the public to know something that we are trying to tell them. It sounds like some paranoid version of a conspiracy theory.'

Rick said, 'Yes, it does. But the government has created the system themselves. They want to make everyone believe that our government is truthful, and thatwe have nothing to fear from our government because they have nothing to hide. The truth is that the government fears the people. They are afraid thatone day the people will wake up, discover all of the illegal activities conductedover the years by the government and its agents, decide that they are tiredof the lies, the coverups, and the infringements on the rights of the people,and decide that today is a good day to change the entire government.'

Dan said, 'Why would they fear that?'

Rick said, 'Because they are aware of how much they are doing that is illegal. They have power, and they don't want to lose it. Besides, where except inthe government can employees who perform not only below average, but belowthe claimed acceptable standards be assured of job security, raises and promotionson schedule, and a great retirement plan? They even get more official holidaysand shorter hours than the people who pay 50% of their income to support thegovernment at all levels. If they had to work in the private sector for aliving, most government employees would have to take a huge pay cut and worklonger hours, get fewer days off, and worry about downsizing regardless oftheir personal productivity and accomplishments.'

Dan said, 'But if they knew that this could happen, why would they take thechance?'

I said, 'They didn't know that it could happen when they started. This divisionbetween the government and its employees and the rest of the citizens of thiscountry started well over 100 years ago. At first, there were no major problemsbecause the country didn't change very rapidly. The government had credibility,and the media was limited in what they could verify by the technology. Astechnology developed, increasing to a furious pace of advancement this century,the government tried to use the newest and best, often without knowing howit would affect society. Over time, technological advancement far outstrippedsocial change.'

'This would have been no different than in the last century except for onefact that they overlooked. The founding fathers of this country had warnedthat we needed to make sure that we did not establish a ruling class, whowould consider themselves an elite, somehow better than the rest of the citizenry. Even the government has admitted that this has happened. All politiciansrefer to the events that happen inside the beltway as being more importantthan everything that happens in the rest of the country. Those who run thefederal government believe that reality, facts, and even the laws and rightsof individual citizens is somehow different inside the beltway, and that therest of the country is incapable of truly understanding how their governmentis run because they are out of touch with the necessities of government.'

Dan said, 'Isn't that true to some extent?'

'The necessities of government are that the government obey the Constitution,follow the wishes of the people who elect their representatives, and informthe people faithfully of their actions. What you are referring to are thenecessities of politics, which has nothing to do with legal government representationunder the Constitution. Politics requires secrecy and unquestioned authorityin order to allow a few individuals to control the population. The wishesof the population are ignored if they conflict with the wishes of the politicalruling elite.'

'We are currently under a system of government that is continuously in conflict. The politicians do not want to allow the people to control the government,but are required to maintain some semblance of control by the people in orderto retain the power that they have. If the government told the people thatthey were no longer going to have a voice in their own government, the peoplewould revolt. However, since there is more than one political party, thereare conflicts because they are vying for power with the others in power. This is only complicated by the infighting between various agencies withinthe government. The bureaucracy has become so huge and bloated that thereare inevitable conflicts and turf wars over who has control. The Americanpeople, and their property, are caught in the conflict.'

Dan said, 'So, there is no conspiracy by the government?'

'There are many conspiracies within the government. They involve attemptswithin certain portions of the government to increase their power, authority,and funding. Each department of the government lies to the others when itsuits their interests. Even when they are caught, everyone considers it tobe just part of the game and considers it to be business as usual. The factthat the government considers lying to superiors, breaking the law, even directviolations of Constitutional rights to be normal tells you that they are willingto accept this kind of behavior as long as the people do not require themto change their position. Unfortunately, there are those in the governmentwho would require you to put them up against a wall in front of a firing squadbefore they realized that you were truly serious and weren't just going togo away after they told you that they had everything under control. Somepeople just refuse to learn, especially when they consider themselves to beinherently superior to those they rule.'

Dan said, 'Don't you mean those they represent?'

'Those who are to blame for the abuses of authority have progressed to thepoint that they believe that they rule this country, and any citizens whodon't agree with their dictates can learn to live with it. There are actuallypoliticians who openly threaten to not only prosecute, but to use their influencewith various federal agencies to persecute any citizen who becomes a problemwith their complaints about how things are being run by the government.'

Dan said, 'That sounds very cynical, Lee.'

'It should. Our government is supposed to be of the people, by the peopleand for the people. Each representative represents over 800,000 people onaverage. He lives in Washington, D.C., a district which is directly undercongressional control. Can anyone in this room remember the last time theirrepresentative or senator asked for their opinion about anything, or listenedto anything they had to say?'

Dan was astonished to find that the consensus in the room, among a group ofresearchers with close working ties to the government and security clearances,was that they were not important enough to get any congressman's attention. In fact, the only time anyone in the room had had anything to do with anycongressman was when they had to make presentations. Not all of those hadgone well, since there were some members of congress who seemed to take adifference of opinion as a personal attack, even when their own opinion wasbased on political considerations and the opinion they were attacking wasthat of a group of recognized experts on the subject who had examined thesubject in order to fulfill a contract with the government.

I said, 'Dan, if this is the response from people who have met with and dealtwith the government and its officials, what do you think the people who haveonly had run-ins with the IRS or some other official agency think when theydidn't do anything wrong except to violate some new guideline that nobodyin the public was even made aware of and even the people who work for theagency and determine how to implement the new guidelines can't agree on howit affects the public?'

Dan said, 'I think that we are going to have problems with the public reactionsto Y2K no matter what we do. But that doesn't tell me why you think thatthe government will lose if it comes to a war with the American people.'

'They don't have the troops, and the troops aren't loyal to the politicians. There is a distinct possibility that many of the high-tech weapons will notbe usable because of computer malfunctions. If those systems crash, evena totally loyal army couldn't defend the government. There are only about30,000 riflemen in the Army, and many have no combat experience. Most ofthe experienced veterans are in the civilian population, and many of themhave no love for the government after being screwed over when they returnedfrom combat. Although they have no intention of starting a war with the government,they are not going to back down and let the government screw them over again. If pushed, they will fight back. Most of them are experts in guerrilla warfareand psychological warfare. They had to be to survive.'

Dan said, 'What does that have to do with the outcome?'

'Guerrilla warfare is nasty, dirty business. The army can't tell the guerrillasfrom the civilians, so they end up punishing civilians and alienating them. The guerrillas gain support. The only way to destroy all the guerrillasis to nuke the area. Ten minutes after that happens, there wouldn't be asingle politician in the country who wouldn't be worried about how many groupshad a price on his head for nuking his own people. Nobody in Washington isthat stupid or arrogant. They may think that they have more power than anybodyelse in this country, and I believe that there are some liberal Democratswho think that they are omniscient,but none of them that I am aware of thinkthat they are omnipotent or immortal.'

Dan said, 'Lee, that omniscient remark is really in poor taste.'

'Dan, it was the truth. Liberals have claimed for years that they believeit is their duty to run everybody's life from cradle to grave because theyknow what is in everybody else's best interest, even in everyone else hasn'trecognized that fact yet. I believe that is close enough to the definitionof omniscient to qualify as a statement of fact.'

The room broke up with laughter, and even Dan realized that he had walkedinto that one. He smiled, and said, 'Lee, one of these days, I'm going tocatch you on one of those statements.'

Rick laughed and said, 'Good luck, Dan. I've been trying that for years. You might disagree with his opinion, but Lee makes sure you know when heis stating opinions, when he is stating facts, and when he is hypothesizing. I don't agree with all of his opinions, but I have to admit that he has validreasoning for adopting them and holding them. Especially the more unpopularones.'

Danielle whispered something, and she and Kristin began laughing. Dan lookedat them and decided that he didn't want to know. Some of the others startedtalking over various details, and we decided that the meeting was concluded. All of our goals had been covered, and we had finished the first phase ofthe project. It wasn't even March 1st, and we were ready to finalize ourreport, draft the various forms, and begin dissemination.

We knew that we were running out of time. Japan would start their fiscalyear in just over a month, and it would not take them long to determine thatthey would have problems with their own systems by the end of the year. Theywould probably not release the news right away in order to avoid a publicpanic. They would want to work out some kind of financial deal with the Americangovernment, and they would have to work quickly to do it in time to save theirown economy, if that was even possible.

There was only one state that would start its fiscal year in April. New Yorkwas not a concern because they had been so fiscally screwed up for so longthat it would take them months to realize that they even had problems. However,another 44 states would start their fiscal year in July. That meant thateven the local governments would be realizing how bad their situation couldbecome by the end of August. Things would start to pick up when local governmentemployees began getting worried and warning their friends and relatives aboutthe real potential.

We were off and running, but the clock was already running before we evengot started. We were ahead of the game, but our goal was to give the publicas much time and information as possible to allow them to have time to prepare,too. How much impact we would have, and how well we would be able to achieveour goal would depend on how well we sold the people on the validity of ourreport, how many people took us seriously, and how long they had to prepareonce they realized what the alternative to preparing was.

The next few weeks would be hectic, but the results could well make it worththe effort. Even if nobody listened, they couldn't say that we didn't tryto tell them what was going to happen. If somebody had to take the blame,they would have to accept responsibility for their own actions. I figuredit was about time that the American people learned how to do that again. Maybe then they would decide to fix what was wrong with their government afterthey had fixed all of the problems with their technology. I thought thatit was ironic that Bill Gates, in his greed and laziness in refusing to fixhis operating systems as long as his company maintained a virtual monopoly,was probably the man most responsible for making Americans get back on theirfeet and stand up for themselves again. Long live the rich geek.

Chapter 25

The next week went by quickly. Most of the work on setting up our homesteadwas complete, and Naomi and I were able to spend some time together by theend of the week. She still had to go out to the site for several hours eachday to supervise and approve various stages of the construction of our house,but the ventilation system and fireplaces had been completed. Most of whatwas left was finishing the walls and insulation and putting on the roof. The outbuildings had been completed, and the landscaping crew had completedinstallation of the plants that could be put in now and preparing the areaswhere we would be installing the fruit bushes and fruit and nut trees whenthe season was far enough along to allow them to be planted.

The fencing had been completed on the pastures, and the herd animals werenow grazing at their new home. The fencing had also been installed aroundthe entire perimeter of the property. There was a continuous fence, withgates at the major road entrances and a few small gates for foot traffic concealedin areas of thick thorn bushes. Most of the perimeter had a thick plantingof hedges or thorn bushes on one or both sides of the fence, and the fencewas installed five feet inside our property line. There were signs warningthat the property was posted, and that the fence and hedges around the outsideof it were all on private property.

Parts of the fence were low enough that many of the animals native to thearea had no problem jumping it. Other parts were of split rail construction,so small animals could move through the bushes and fence without any problem. In many areas, the only fence was hedges and thorn bushes to allow existinggame trails to continue to be used by wild animals. These areas were veryconspicuously marked with signs to prevent people from hunting or trespassingon the property.

Rick, Naomi, and I toured the entire perimeter and spent a day wandering aroundthe property. It was beautiful, and there was enough diversity to allow usto wildcraft the land without damaging the ecosystem. We had enough sectionsof hardwood to provide a permanent supply for the needs we would have, andwe intended to manage our land to make sure that the regrowth maintained thebalance of the various species of hardwood trees in the regions we harvestedwhen we took more than deadfall lumber for cutting, drying, and burning.

Naomi spent the 27th with Danielle and Kristin in the woods. They wildcraftedsome mushrooms, and spent the day learning where the berry patches and somewild food crops grew. Naomi was pleased to find some roots that she couldharvest. She brought some canna lily or calla lily bulbs back to plant nearthe house. She was elated to discover several stands of wild roses, and madesure she knew where they were so that she could transplant some of them nearthe house when the weather was perfect and the construction wouldn't killthem.

Rick and I spent the week visiting the other homestead sites and touring themwith the people who had bought them. We made sure that any discrepanciesbetween the plans and the actual site were either still on the to be completedlist or had been changes made at the owner's request. Except for the cropsand some of the livestock, all of them were almost complete or had alreadycompleted construction. The type of structure, type and amount of utilities,and basic design for the land use had been left up to the individuals. Wehad no problem getting the construction done because many construction workerswere more than willing to do the work required by some of the unusual designsbecause they had very little other business this time of year.

Most of the deliveries had been made and sorted, and we helped some of thepeople move their purchases into their new homes. We also helped move thebasic supplies that the company had provided into the private storage facilitiesbuilt for them on each of the new homesteads. Some of the construction crewshad become real good at building storage bunkers that kept the contents secureand still maintained separation of compartments and ventilation to avoid fumebuildup. Some of the people had chosen to stock large amounts of chemicalssuch as bleach, ammonia, lamp oil, kerosene, fuel oil, lye, and vinegar. Some had even stocked up on special chemicals for tanning and curing hides,developing photographs, refinishing and stripping furniture, and resins andglazes for pottery and ceramic work.

Some places were completely state of the art and high tech, while others werecompletely primitive. The rest ranged somewhere in between, with most containingat least some electricity for lighting. A few places had even installed generatorsthat were powered by their private natural gas wells. As long as they couldmaintain the gas well and the generator, they would have electricity withouthaving to worry about the life of storage batteries or our ability to replacethem.

It was interesting to see some places because of the contrasts within a singlehome. State of the art photovoltaic, wind, and water generated electricityused to run a few lights, a Macintosh G3 computer for education for the kids,and provide the energy to run the motor that turns the dryer drum. Naturalgas from a well to run a refrigerator, a freezer, and the dryer heating system. A hand powered washing machine, a treadle powered sewing machine, a spinningwheel, and a loom. A wood stove with double reservoirs for hot water. Waterfrom a hand pumped well or an artesian well. A fireplace with a roastingspit and built in ovens.

We were preparing in plenty of time, and had received everything that wasnot due to be shipped within six to eight weeks. By the end of April, everythingwe had decided to do to prepare would be completed except for one thing. We still had to print and promote our report so others would also have timeto prepare. Our next meeting was March 6th, and it would be the last meetingbefore we began dissemination of our findings to the public.

When the meeting finally began, we were set, and everyone knew it. The meetingwas a formality to allow us to finalize everything and celebrate the completionof our report. We went over the formats, and passed out hard copies of thevarious styles of the report for everyone to go over and approve.
The actual report was thick, listing our predictions for the various scenarios,our conclusions, and the basis for arriving at them. It was to be distributedas an actual scientific study to those who were on our list to receive theinformation. Several different abbreviated forms of the report were availableto send to the media, private corporations, or scientific and government researchers. These offered the complete report and even some specific recommendationsif they wanted to pay for the service.

The abbreviated report was smaller. It contained our predictions, our conclusions,and some discussion on why we had made those particular recommendations. It also contained some suggestions on what individuals could do on their ownto prepare for this and other disaster contingencies. It was to be distributedin partial form on the net for free and in complete form by ordering at theprice we had determined.

The last form was the novelization. It was to be sold by private printingto anyone who ordered it. It contained the information on what was possiblygoing to happen, some of the more predictable consequences, and what stepsindividuals could take to make sure that they prepared for what they believedwas necessary. It even included a complete list of the various items whichwere available on the market to provide for a particular need in the appendix.

After looking over the copies, we decided that we would begin our work ofdisseminating the report on Monday, March 8th with the e-mails to companiesand corporate management by all of the researchers involved. We would alsoflood certain web sites with copies of the condensed report prepared for thegeneral public along with the advertisements and marketing for the completereport and the novelization. After we had been able to make the report widelydistributed, we would contact the government if they had not already contactedus trying to get a copy of the report.

We decided just before the meeting broke up that we would wait two days andthen e-mail condensed copies of the actual report to the President, Vice President,and each member of Congress. They would receive our predictions of the variousscenarios, and our recommendations on what steps individuals could take tominimize their own suffering. We would also include a small section on whatsteps could be taken by the government within the time left to prepare forthe worst and even to more fully minimize the impact of any possible systemsfailures.

We saw no reason to withhold the information from them, but we didn't believeit would do more than generate political posturing for the media and enoughfertilizer being spread by congressmen who didn't know what they were talkingabout to build a tower to the moon.

Dan said, 'You don't seem enthusiastic with this chance to make the governmentsee the facts, Lee. You know that they can't ignore the truth forever. Whyare you going along with the rest of us if you think that this is a wasteof time and resources? You do have the final say on dissemination, and couldcancel this if you wanted to.'

'Dan, I just don't believe that they'll do anything except use it howeverthey think will be to their own political advantage. I don't believe thatour current government has a prayer of recognizing the unavoidable truth andacting on it in time. They are too far gone to deal with reality and therest of the world.'

'Why do you believe that, Lee?' This from Kristin.

'Because they have shown that they can't even recognize or deal with the truthwhen it is shoved up their nose and rubbed in their face. Clinton got onnational TV and "apologized" to the people for his inappropriate actions withMonica Lewinski. This was an admission that he had committed adultery andhad sex with her. It was also a direct contradiction of his grand jury testimonyunder oath.'

Dan said, 'But shouldn't his private life be his own personal business?'

'That is not the issue. He had the same legal rights as anyone else, andmore because his attorney was present during questioning, he was only askedprepared questions, and he had a time limit for them to ask questions. Someof their time was spent in conferences with his attorney and answering questionswith long responses instead of the few words his answer actually provided.'

'What do you mean?'

'It doesn't take five minutes and three paragraphs to say that I know thelegal definition of the word "sex", that I understand the question after goingover it with my attorney, and that I did not have sex with Monica Lewinskior Paula Jones.'

Dan said, 'OK, so he was evasive.'

'No. He intentionally lied. He committed perjury, which is a felony. Sincethe Constitution specifically lists high crimes and misdemeanors as impeachableoffenses, and felonies are legally defined as more important offenses thanmisdemeanors, he committed an impeachable offense. The House of Representativesdid their duty and impeached him, but it was a political, partisan effort. No Democrat voted for impeachment even though they all knew that he had committedadultery and had committed perjury while under oath.'

'The Senate did their job and tried him for the offenses. In another partisaneffort, the Democrats voted to support their party member, no matter what. The vote was 50-50 for obstruction of justice, even though his lies to thepress and perjury directly impeded a legal case against him and resulted inits dismissal. The vote was 55-45 for the other count of perjury, even thoughhis own statements made it clear that he had lied.'

Dan said, 'Our government isn't perfect. None of them are.'

'It isn't supposed to be perfect. It is supposed to run to the best of ourabilities to make it representative of the wishes and best interests of thepeople of this country. We have direct proof that Congress considers politicsand political considerations to be more important than the direct instructionsgiven to them by the Constitution that is supposed to govern and limit theiractions. We have direct proof that they consider the violation of the oathof office to be no problem, because the President can not keep his oath whilehe is violating the laws set forth by the Constitution.'

'We also have evidence that the judicial branch of the government does nottake this violation of the Constitution, the supreme law of the land, seriously. The federal judge is considering imposing a fine and censure on Clinton afterhe has publicly stated that he intentionally meant to mislead the judge andthe grand jury with his answers under oath. That is an admission that hecommitted perjury.'

Dan said, 'But he will be punished, so it doesn't matter, does it?'

'The punishment is for contempt of court. That is a slap on the wrist comparedto the punishment for perjury, which is the actual crime committed. It isequivalent to a punk kicking in your door, beating your wife unconscious,breaking your cookie jar, and eating all of your cookies. When caught andarrested, the judge slaps him on the wrist and says that he shouldn't eatcookies without permission any more because too many cookies are bad for yourhealth. It is an affront to the offended parties.'

Dan said, 'But what is it that should be so offensive? Did he do somethingso wrong that he would have been subjected to so much punishment if therewas no political reason to go after him? Doesn't everybody fool around andthen lie about it?'

'Many people do fool around outside of marriage, and many more lie about it. Those who lie about it under oath are usually charged with perjury and spenda term of time in prison after being convicted of a felony. His positionand power shielded him, allowing him to discredit his accuser and even getthe case thrown out of court by lying under oath. That is obstruction ofjustice, another felony since in this case there was a conspiracy to impedethe case and intentionally cause it to be dismissed before it came to trial.'

'The thing that should be offensive to the people of this country, who areforced to pay 50% of their total income to support the various levels of government,is that the entire federal government has proven itself to be corrupt andself-serving in this one case. The Legislative branch was supposed to trythe case fairly and impartially. The fact that the important votes were madealong political lines indicates that at least one political party refusedto obey the law and represent the best interests of the people of this country.'

'The Judicial branch was supposed to try the legal cases fairly, and allowedthe President to influence their actions so that the law was broken. Whenthey found out about this, they refused to take more than a token action againstan admitted felon who been tried by a fixed jury. At least they haven't takenthe precedent of the Rodney King trial to violate the Constitutional rightsof the accused and try him again for the same crime. Double jeopardy is anasty can of worms, but even the Supreme Court won't find in favor of thecops who were convicted because if they do, they know that there will be raceriots. Justice in this country is blind only when it means that they haveto overlook evidence of innocence or guilt to make sure that the outcome ofthe trial does not produce more racially or culturally motivated violenceand unrest than they are willing to tolerate. The easy response is to convictthe innocent white cops or acquit the guilty black athlete instead of havingto shoot rioters to convince them that the law applies equally to all, regardlessof race.'

'The Executive branch was supposed to obey the law and the oath to upholdand defend the Constitution. Personal arrogance allowed the President tocommit adultery because he wanted to, to commit perjury because he chose to,and to interfere with a lawsuit in a manner which he knew was illegal becauseit served his own personal interests. He has specifically engineered thetiming of several political crises and military actions to manipulate publicopinion and influence political events related to cases in which he was adefendant. He considers the law, the Constitution, and the best interestsof the American people to be less important than his own personal pleasuresand gratification. He is a prime example of what is wrong with both the politicalsystem and the government of this country. We could not have picked a betterleader to exemplify why the problem we face is a disaster instead of merelya minor footnote describing how a simple problem was located, identified,and fixed years before it could develop into something worth worrying about.'

'All three branches of our government are rotten, either from apathy, politicalinfluence, or having developed the habit of accepting illegal activities asjust the usual method of getting things done in the government.'

Dan said, 'Are you suggesting that since all of the branches are rotten, weshould burn down the tree and plant something else? That would be rebellion.'

'There are options. When you have a fruit tree with a diseased or rottenlimb, you remove the limb and graft on a new one so that you retain the healthyroots and still get healthy fruit. If the people of this country decide tochange their government, or even their form of government, they are accordedthat right under the Constitution. If those in power choose to block theselegal activities in order to retain their powers, they are guilty of rebellionand are in direct violation of the laws which control the government of thiscountry.'

'If that happens, any response made by the people, including use of forceto remove the criminals as a threat to the nation, is a Constitutional andlegal response. Our country is based on a system in which the people voluntarilygive up certain rights in order to allow the government to provide certainservices, all of which are contained in a written contract. If the governmentviolates that contract and then refuses to obey its written obligations whenreminded by the other party, it can hardly claim to be the legitimate partyin a conflict in which the other party is simply trying to enforce the contract.'

Rick said, 'Can you explain it more simply, Lee, so that we're sure that everyoneunderstands exactly what you are trying to say?'

'Let's say that the government is a cop, and the people are citizens. Thecop has the right to make you obey certain laws, and to arrest you if youdon't. We all agree on that point, because it is necessary for the survivalof our society. But what happens if the cop commits crimes and attempts tokill you illegally?'

Dan said, 'I guess you'd have to try to escape and then press charges, right?'

'According to the law, cops are people too. If they are violating the law,they are afforded no special protection and status just because they are acop. You have the same right to kill them in self defense when they are committinga crime as you do to kill any other citizen. As long as a crime is beingcommitted by someone else, and you are acting in self defense, you have theright to kill that person in order to protect your own life or someone else's. In real life, you will have a harder time proving that you were acting inself defense, and that the only person committing a crime was the cop, butyou will be alive in court to tell your version of the events to a jury ofyour peers.'

'My personal hope is that we can peacefully reform our government, simplifyits operation, make it more accountable to the people, and make it more economical. All of these things must happen if this society is to survive, and any problemswith our current technology are not responsible for any resulting changesthat occur. They simply acted as a trigger to initiate the events which followed. If our government does not change, this society is going to become increasinglyfragmented. After a certain point, social collapse becomes inevitable becausethere are too many conflicts. The people can't cooperate and function cohesively. We don't need to be homogenous to survive, but we have to at least agreeon the basic points that are the foundation of our society and have some commongoals. Right now, survival is a good start.'

Appendix

Suggested supplies recommended by the report for surviving various emergencies. Any combination of the supplies in each group may be used depending on yourpersonal budget and needs, but the recommended amount is enough for each personyou are planning for with a few extras for spares. The amount of food, water,ammunition, or other supplies should be at least enough to provide the maximumusage you expect for each day of the total time you are planning for in anemergency. If you are planning for ten people for thirty days, you need 300times the maximum amount of food and water that you are allowing for one personfor one day.

Light

Battery operated flashlights / batteries

Rechargeable batteries with a solar charger are recommended for long termsituations

Generator flashlight no batteries required

Spare flashlight bulbs (if it burns out, your light is useless otherwise)

Oil lamps / fuel (Kerosene or Coleman lamps may substitute, but usuallycost more to buy and operate)

Candles / candleholders

Matches / lighters

Water

Enough water stored for one gallon per day per person.

Extra water, including rain water, can be collected and used for flushingtoilets.

Extra drinking water should be included to care for pets.

Extra water for bathing can be included, but you can use wet wipes or takesponge baths to conserve water.

Extra water should be included if you have a lot of dehydrated food to allowfor rehydration before use.

Water Purification (for making unsafe water drinkable)

Water purification tablets, drops

Resublimated iodine crystals

Chlorine bleach

Coffee filters, pan for boiling

Water purification straw

Water filter (camping type that has filters for purifying water from streams,etc.)

Gravity powered water filtration cartridges

Food

Enough dried, canned, or other food that requires no refrigeration to

supply five or six normal sized meals per day per person.

You must allow extra calories because you will need them if you

are in a cold climate without adequate heat or doing more

exertion than normal in order to survive and clean up from the

disaster.

Amount of preparation (rehydration / cooking) depends on the type of

food you choose, which is a matter of cost, availability, and

personal taste.

Amount of food you stock depends on number of people and length of

time you are willing and able to plan for in an emergency.

If you have children, you will need to pack extra powdered milk,

canned milk, cheese powder, and peanut butter to allow for the

needs of growing bodies. Extra crackers and jam or jelly will

also come in handy.

If you have infants or toddlers, you should have a stock of infant

formula (both dried powder and canned liquid) and some baby

food. These will have to be checked, rotated out to keep fresh

stock, and updated to keep up with the changing diet and

dietary needs of your little one.

Clothing

Having clothing should be no problem if you are at home when the disasteror emergency occurs. However, you may have a problem with clean clothes appropriatefor the situation if you have power outages for extended periods. You maywant to make sure that each person has cold weather outfits, good boots, extrahats, extra gloves, and several extra pairs of warm socks.

If doing laundry becomes necessary, you can hand wash clothes in a large sinkor tub with some liquid soap, or even just rinse them out with clean wateruntil they are fairly clean. Then wring them out by hand and hang them upto dry. If it is winter, they can be still hung up outside and allowed tofreeze. Once the ice is beaten off, they will be almost completely dry.

Diapers, diapers, diapers. You DON'T want to run out in an emergency.

First Aid

Bandages (Band-aids, gauze pads, gauze wrap, tape, blister pads)

Antibiotic ointment

Petroleum jelly

Lip balm

Sunscreen

Anti-diarrhea medicine (Loperamide)

Pepto Bismol

Antacid tablets

Cold medicine (cough drops, cough syrup, Nyquil, cold / flu tablets)

Recommend Fisherman's friend or other cough drop that won't

melt when heated so they don't go bad in storage.

Vapo Rub (or mentolatum rub)

Sports creme or red pepper (capsicum) creme for muscle aches

Aspirin, Ibuprofen, Acetaminophen, Ketoprofen

Benadryl (or other allergy medicine)

Vitamins

Mercurochrome / Iodine

Alcohol / witch hazel

Alcohol pads / wet wipes / cotton balls

Q-tips

Ace bandages, athletic tape / wrap

Tweezers / forceps, scalpel, needles

Toiletries

Feminine napkins / tampons

Deodorant

Toothbrush / toothpaste (baking soda can be used)

Razor (can dry shave or use small amount of water or foam)

Baby wipes (lots for washing, cleaning cuts, sponge bathing)

Kleenex tissues

Toilet paper (you really do not want to run out in an emergency)

Other Gear

Sleeping bags / groundsheets

Tents / tarps / stakes / rope

Hand tools (hammer, nails, screwdriver, screws, saw, pliers, tape

measure, chalk or pencil, wrenches, pliers)

Useful for minor repairs, turning off water if pipes broken,

turning off gas, sealing broken windows.

Cooking / Heating

Gas stove if gas is still working. Can also use oven to heat house if youopen the door while it is on. Remember that ventilation is extremely important.

Small charcoal grill can be used for cooking, but should be outdoors to preventtoxic fume buildup inside shelter. Remember to stock up on charcoal and lighterfluid if you plan to use a grill for emergency cooking over an extended periodof time.

Kerosene heater can be used for heating, but requires extra ventilation.

Electric generator can be used to allow lights and furnace / stove to be usedjust like normal. Generator needs to be large enough to provide all the electricityyou need without using unnecessary devices. You must have enough fuel storedto provide the electricity you need for the time period you are planning tohave coverage.

Fireplace can be used for heating, light, and cooking, but you must make sureit is cleaned and maintained to retain safety during use. Remember to stockup on dried hardwood if you plan to use a fireplace for more than an occasionalromantic fire, and remember that keeping a fire going means that you haveto clean the ashes out around the burning logs. Hot coals will be a firehazard, especially in carpeted rooms.

Firestarter (Magnesium, fire ribbon, fire starter blocks, fuel pellets, matches,lighter, flint and steel). Remember that a magnesium firestarter burns at5400 degrees Fahrenheit. This is hot enough to cut through steel or starta fire on wet rubber tires. Be very careful where you start a fire and howmuch magnesium shavings you use.

Miscellaneous

Radio for listening to weather, emergency broadcasts, news.

Batteries for radio. Remember that many radios go through batteries quickly.

Generator radio (requires no batteries, can operate for thirty minutes ormore without cranking up again, can be bought with small light so you cansee while operating it indoors or at night, can add a solar charger to allowthe sun to operate it without any cranking, can get ear buds to allow lessenergy requirements than speakers so it runs longer on a single charge andyou don't make as much noise)

Good hunting knife

Good folding pocket knife

Tape, duct tape, reinforced tape, rope, and cord

Additional Considerations

For those who are expecting to have to provide their own protection againsttwo legged or four legged predators, firearms are recommended, although acompound bow or crossbow may be sufficient. Also, a blowgun and darts providea quiet, inexpensive method of eliminating small pests and can provide someentertainment value to yourself or older youngsters at the same time. A goodair rifle will also kill mice, rats, and squirrels.

For those who want to be self-sufficient for both hunting and self-defense,the following items are recommended:

Bow / arrows (arrows are reusable and can be made from scratch)

Air rifle / pellets and BBs (good for pest removal)

.22 caliber rifle / ammo

large caliber rifle / ammo

12 gauge shotgun / ammo

9 mm or larger caliber pistol / ammo

Caliber of rifle and pistol depends on personal preference and budget. Amountof ammo for each weapon, total number of weapons, depends on personal estimatesof how much you will need and how much you can afford to plan for. Type ofpistol (revolver or automatic) depends on personal preferance, availability,and budget.

Remember that a good quality, reliable rifle or pistol, even if it is of asmaller caliber than you really want to get, is better than breaking yourbudget for an inferior quality gun of the caliber you want. When you areplanning for survival or self-sufficiency, it is more important to have aworking tool that will do the job than a bigger tool that will break downbefore the job is completed.

Anyone who tells you that a .22 caliber rifle won't kill an adult male humandoes not know what he is talking about. Although .22 short and .25 auto ammoare underpowered and will often not harm an adult, .22 LR will travel formore than a mile, and can still kill someone at several hundred yards. Thismeans that you want to be careful and not shoot indiscriminately just becauseyou think that your dinky .22 rifle isn't a threat to anyone down range ofyour position.

Although a .380 auto is almost the same caliber as a 9 mm bullet, it has lesspowder, less mass, less penetration, and less stopping power. A handgun isa close range weapon, but the longer barrel of a 9 mm auto means that it ismore accurate, and that is what counts. It does not matter how many shotsyou take, or what size gun you use if you do not hit your target. The personwho hits something with two rounds out of his .22 target pistol has a chanceof killing it, while the person who misses with all six rounds from his .50cal magnum has no chance of killing his target.

Any handgun above a .380 in ballistics will do the job when it comes to selfdefense. This has been proven by police and military over the years. Ifyou are worried about penetration and damage to the target, use hollow points. You don't want a handgun to penetrate armor. That is not its basic design. If you need to penetrate armor, use a bazooka, a guided missile, or a LAAWsrocket. A handgun is for close range defense, and in most modern applications,any penetration beyond what is required to penetrate a large, thick, bonyskull is excessive. If it will stop a bull or a bear at close range, it works.

Learn how to care for, store, handle, and use your weapon properly. Learnhow to shoot it accurately, because any tool only performs to the potentialof the individual to use it properly. Make sure that you understand whatyou expect to be able to do with your weapon, and that it is the proper toolfor the job you have in mind. You may shoot a mouse inside your house safelywith an air rifle, but using a shotgun would not only make a mess of yourhouse, but could even result in you living somewhere else when your houseburns to the ground from the electrical or gas fire that you inadvertantlystarted.

If you are planning for an emergency or disaster, make sure that your survivalsupplies are good, and that you know how to use them. MREs will keep youalive, but you have to be able to eat them. They also tend to constipatepeople if they don't drink a LOT of water, so you might also need to add alaxative to your first aid kit if you know that MREs have that effect on you. You might be able to avoid this by using iodine to treat your drinking water,since it has the effect of making some people have a slight case of the runs.

If you normally take medicine, and it must be refrigerated, you can get chemicalcold packs and a small cooler to keep your medicine cold in the event of evena prolonged power failure. You will need to stock enough cold packs to maintainrefrigeration, and to make sure that you have enough medicine on hand to allowyou to get through the emergency.

Planning ahead for special considerations before an emergency occurs willallow you to provide for the special needs or be ready to improvise a workablesolution. Food allergies are one thing that need to be addressed before adisaster. It won't matter that you have enough MREs for a month if you areallergic to the contents because of one or two ingredients. The same appliesto extreme allergies. If you can't keep a bee sting kit, you may still surviveif you take enough Benadryl to prevent anaphalactic shock. It may not work,but if you know that you go anaphalactic when you get stung by a bee, youknow that you are certain to be dead if you are two days from the nearestmedical help, you get stung multiple times, and you don't have a good beesting kit with you. In that situation, any chance is better than none atall.

Planning ahead will help you to remain calm because you know what to expectand what to do when it happens. If you remain calm and respond properly,you have a very good chance of surviving an emergency. If you panic, youhave an increased probability of injury or death. Panic is the one thingthat will eradicate all of the safety barriers and buffers provided by allof your planning and hard work to prepare for dealing with an emergency situationeffectively.

Also remember that boredom will be a major concern. Kids want to play, andthey won't like it if they can't go outside and there is no TV and no computergames inside. Plan activities to keep them, and yourself, occupied. Readbooks, play board games, play cards. Stock some 2-liter bottles of soda andchips so they can have some treats and snacks. You can also store some candy,chocolate, raisins, dried fruit, nuts, and other nutritious snacks to keepyour little monsters from revolting. The only thing worse than being stuckin an emergency situation is being stuck there with a lot of unhappy kidswho are bored stiff. That isn't survival. It's a preview of hell.