Oil and the Specter of Asia

Tremendously important issues are not discussed publicly in America. The invasion of the United States by Mexico, black on white crime, and manipulation of the news, particularly events in the Middle East, are not argued openly or honestly. Moral, intellectual and physical cowardice have come to be acceptable among affluent white Americans.

Yet there are issues demanding special consideration as the time for debating the widening of war becomes more and more necessary. The coming crisis in oil supplies with great demand from India and China, both aspiring industrial powers, and the dollar’s descent in value may be the rationale behind the administration’ desire to invade Iraq. The Israeli lobby’s determination to entangle the United States in the Middle East has succeeded and was pivotal for many legislators who fear their wrath much more than they value American interests and American lives.

In 2000 using Department of Energy data the United States consumed 98.8 quadrillion (10x10¹⁵) BTU’s with a population estimated at 281 million. On a per capita daily basis using the conversion factors of 42 gallons per barrel with each barrel having 5,825,000 BTUs of energy the average American consumed 6.95 gallons of oil per day. The Chinese in 2000 had a population of 1,273,000,000 used 36.67 quads, or on a daily basis some 0.57 gallons per day per Chinese. The Indians in 2000 had a population of 1,002,000,000 and used 12.67 quads daily. The average Indian used 0.25 gallons per day.

With a projected population of 1,446,000,000 in 2020 for China to attain a consumption of one-third of American consumption in 2000 would require an increase in supply greater than 60 million barrels of oil energy equivalent a day. India with a projected population of 1,291,000,000 to attain a consumption rate of one-fourth the American of 2000 would require an additional energy input equal to 45 million barrels of oil a day. Between these two giants a total requirement more than 100 million barrels of oil equivalent energy a day would be needed. This energy need could not be met by increased domestic production. Almost certainly this means they would have to import oil from the Middle East or recent fields in Central Asia, if sufficiently large.

Both countries with legitimate national goals will put their interests, as perceived by them, at the top of their national policy. China has been the great recipient of a disastrous American trade policy for the past three decades. What advanced industrial techniques they do not know probably are not all that worthwhile knowing. The loss of the American industrial base has been a national tragedy with consequences yet to be explored. India is somewhat behind, but extremely anxious to catch up.

While looking at projected populations of India and China until 2020, some odd characteristics pop out. When examining numbers of males aged 18-34, the militarily significant age, for both countries, the Oriental preference for boys over girls is quickly apparent. In some years there will be more than 15 million males than women in both countries. What does deserve serious consideration is what these males will be doing over the next 20 years.

Arab distrust of the United States is growing and will continue. It should not surprise if they seek a guarantor or ally willing to speak or, if need be, fight for them. This country will surely suffer many casualties, but should be able to endure. This country should be able to make or match anything made in Europe or the United States. Ideally they should not have been involved in the Middle Eastern conflict and have little or no concern for Israel. If not at this time, China will fulfill these conditions in the future. She is continuing to advance economically and militarily. What secrets and technical techniques that America may possess in a few years may not be worth knowing. India lags, but their progress within the next 20 years may surprise people as much as Gorbachev’s Russia was shocked by Chinese progress from 1979 to 1989.

Elimination of many males, even in the millions, would probably add to domestic tranquility. China lacks sea power presently, but a march of divisions through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean would not be out of the question. Transporting them to Iraq or Saudi Arabia may be a problem. The question is for how long.

India for historical reasons would not be the first choice of Muslims, but perhaps Jews of Israel and post-Christian America will think differently. Indian troops, even if lightly trained and equipped, could maintain most of the needed occupation forces of the oil producing states if they are initially defeated by the United States. India could be backed by the military might, particularly airplanes and warship, of the United States. Israel would be a reliable cheerleader making sure their American kin follow. Costs of war and maintaining an occupying force could be maintained by oil revenue.

The dollar has long been losing luster as an investment. The United States bereft of manufacturing will have little to offer the outside world. Over the past decade aircraft and grains have been the great exports, but even they cannot staunch the great merchandise train imbalance. Boeing is now planning to produce planes in China. Soon China will produce planes without Boeing.

Writing about pre-World War I Russia, John Maynard Keynes noted Western and Central Europe had imported from the Ukraine a substantial amount of their cereals. Exports from crops in North America previously had been the primary source, but then were displaced. After the war Mr. Keynes saw no way of repairing the loss of Ukrainian productivity except through German enterprise and organization. British interest was to hasten the day when German agents would be in position to organize the impulses of ordinary economic motive. The Teutonic process should take place regardless of the form of government in Russia. Mr. Keynes thought the German function in Europe was creating and organizing wealth for her Eastern and Southern neighbors. If Germany were to organize the Ukraine of today, Americans who regard the Middle West prairie states as unique and without challenge could be rudely shocked. Ukraine with its black earth that many agronomists consider superior to the soil of the American prairie could once again supplant America as the great supplier of agricultural products to Europe. The effect on the American balance of payments could rival that of Japanese automobiles. We might inquire if we really won the cold war.

The economic expansion and prosperity of the years from Reagan through Clinton relied on foreigners buying our debt. The Japanese, the Chinese, the Saudis and the Germans did so, but an end appears in sight. The American policy controlled by Greenspan favored the financial sector, not the wealth producing industrial area. An attempt by Paul O’Neil to reverse this resulted in his firing. We followed the Gospel according to Milton Friedman and have yet to suffer the full costs.

After World War I Oswald Spengler observed once a nation thinks exclusively in economic terms it loses its ability to think politically. He said it was true of Carthage in Roman times and even more true of Woodrow Wilson's America. The America of today surpasses Wilson's America in tunnel vision. The only foreign affairs considered important by the entertainment Mafia occur along the Jordan River. Russia, Germany, China and Japan have been relegated to secondary considerations. The United States may soon suffer the Chinese curse of having to live in interesting times.

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All data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/tablee1.html

Year China India

2020 183.5 168.5 15.0 192.4 181.3 11.1