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spoon!
November 12th, 2009, 04:08 AM
Yes, he's a kike, but it's an informative article:

Rosenberg: Something Big Is About To Happen

http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-something-big-is-about-to-happen-2009-11

David Rosenberg notes the incredible lop sided trading environment. The dollar short/long equities trade has become the no-brainer trade and is beginning to appear crowded. David notes:

Looking at the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we can see some pretty interesting (and potentially disturbing) trends taking place (data for November 3rd):

* The only areas where the speculators (non-commercial accounts) are net short are in Treasuries and in the U.S. dollar. Everything else has massive net speculative longs and hence near-term vulnerable to a reversal.

* There is still a NET speculative short position in both the 10-year Treasury note of 85,551 contacts (on the Chicago Board of Trade ). There are 95,648 net short contracts on the long bond too.

* But there are 29,608 net LONG positions on the 30-day Fed funds contract —down from the highs, but it means that Fed tightening is completely off the radar screen. At the same time, there are 152,311 net longs on the 2-year Treasury note, so it would seem as though we have a crowded trade among the speculators on a bear curve steepening trade.

* There is a significant net long position on the S&P 500 to the tune of 208,448 contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

* There is also a huge net speculative short position on the U.S. dollar (the ‘carry trade’). For example, on the CME, we have 24,389 net speculative long CAD positions; 50,264 net speculative long contracts on the Australian dollar, and 28,036 net longs on the Euro. These are huge numbers. What happens if/when the U.S. dollar ever undergoes a countertrend rally?

* The largest speculative long positions are in the commodity space (this is near-term bearish) … 271,564 gold contracts (a record) on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX); 44,312 net longs on silver (near-record but not quite), West Texas Intermediate oil contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (also a record); 10,871 net long copper contracts (a new cycle high); 5,538 net speculative long contracts on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.

Who knows how long the short dollars/long equities trade can go on, but I know when a trade is this crowded it’s generally best to step to the side and let the speculators have their fun. These sorts of lop-sided trading environments rarely end well.

Derrick Beukeboom
November 19th, 2009, 10:19 PM
I'd say that the slow drum beat fears of hyper-inflation may begin to happen. People are already putting 2 and 2 together.

The real unemployment rate has goT to be near 20%..pay cuts are happening.
The stimulus money will work itz way through the financial system and make banks, wall street and big business better off.

the masses will get nothing of course. they don't matter.

I think economic troubles is a huge benefit for WN to develop though. So that's a plus.

COTW
December 6th, 2009, 06:26 PM
Recent World Events Indicate Impending Market Chaos (http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=199)

Dubai:

... without investment from numerous foreign nations, Dubai would not exist.
.. only 6% of Dubai’s GDP is supported by oil revenue. The vast remaining portion of Dubai’s economy operates completely on money from the U.S., China, Europe, and other foreign interests.

Essentially, Dubai is bankrupt, and this news has sent a shockwave through markets around the world. But why? Why would Dubai’s bankruptcy affect U.S. markets?

The first thing that we must understand is that this is the result of living in a “globalized” economy. Instead of having sovereign and self sufficient financial systems that act as checks to total world collapse, we now have “interdependent” economies connected like a chain of dominoes. All it takes is for one to tip over, and the others follow suit.

... Dubai is the canary in the coal mine, and the canary has just dropped dead. ... Dubai has kicked off the coming avalanche, ...

Chinese Banks Frantically Try To Raise Capital?

A recent event that has gone almost completely ignored by MSM economists was the announcement that Chinese banks are now under government pressure to shore up their finances, ...

Over the next year or more, Chinese financial institutions will be pulling billions of Yuan out of various investments, selling stocks and bonds in order to raise a massive amount of capital, but for what?

The move appears quite sudden, as if the push for capital is meant as a hedge for a possible panic event, much like an inside trader selling off his shares in a company because he knows it is about to go bust. ... as soon as the Chinese begin pulling capital out of U.S. markets (in which they are heavily invested) we can expect to see the DOW falter drastically.
...
This new trade agreement along with an internationally traded Yuan would put China in a prime position to drop its reliance on the U.S. and the Dollar. All signs indicate a move toward separation from the traditional economic agreement between China and the U.S. will occur in 2010.

Trouble Brewing In Japan

The MSM has been relatively quiet on Japan’s current financial condition, perhaps because its condition is growing increasingly worse, and this reflects poorly on the condition of the U.S. Dollar.

Japan is another Asian country that once relied heavily of American consumption as a support mechanism for its economy. ...

This major decline in exports (Japan’s bread and butter) has caused a deflationary trend in Japanese markets, as well as sending the middle class there into a mode of savings and self protection. Japanese companies have attempted to stall job-loss in the country by cutting the pay of their employees, instead of issuing pink slips. This has resulted however in many families being “equally” on the edge of poverty:

... The new Prime Minister of Japan, Yukio Hatoyama, has announced publicly and often that he would like Japan to break from its reliance on the American economy and form more tightly with the ASEAN trading bloc:
...
Japan holds a substantial amount of U.S Treasury debt, meaning just like in the case of China, if these treasuries are dumped, our currency will implode.

Gold Buying Bonanza By Foreign Central Banks
...
These reserves have probably been expanded much more in the past few months, and China has indicated a desire to increase its gold holdings from 1600 tons to 6000 tons in the next few years!

But even bigger news is the announcement that India has bought 200 tons of gold from the IMF and may buy 200 more:

The IMF originally offered up the 400 ton gold sale in the midst of one of the biggest gold rallies in recent history, obviously as an attempt to flood the market and manipulate the price down. The attempt failed, and gold has surged to nearly $1200 an ounce in the past couple months.

Russia has also been stocking gold, buying 15.6 tons in October and bringing their reserves to approximately 606 tons. Not only this, but Russia has also announced its intentions to diversify into other national currencies and away from the dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan may be included in Russia’s forex:

... Gold buying indicates that these countries fully expect market turmoil and dollar weakness to continue and perhaps escalate.
Bad Signs On The Homefront

The situation in American employment, credit, currency, and real estate has only become worse since the federal stimulus plan was instituted. “Official” unemployment has soared to 10.2% while REAL unemployment according to the U-6 measurement is around 18%.

Real Estate continues to be incredibly weak, and mortgage payment delinquencies and bankruptcy have grown unabated:

Over 125 banks across the country have been closed in 2009. You can see the FDIC’s closed bank list here:

The FDIC has announced that it has officially run out of funds, and is now in the red for $8.2 billion (that they admit to, the real amount could be much more). The FDIC is now pulling funds directly from the Treasury to cover future bank losses. This puts even more of a strain on the already crumbling dollar:

... Polls indicate the 93% of U.S. consumers will most likely spend much less this Christmas season then they did the last, and many of them will not be using credit cards:

... I believe the seasonal retail numbers for 2009 will be startling to many who are not aware of the true condition of the economy, and who have blindly believed the Federal Reserve’s announcements that the recession is “over.”

We have predicted for at least the past two years that the primary collapse of the U.S. economy would occur in 2010. We stand by that prediction. ...
A climactic economic event is on the horizon, ... The time for readiness grows short.

OTPTT
December 6th, 2009, 06:31 PM
I heard someone on a Rense program say that a lot of cash flowing into Dubai was laundered Carlyle Group money and that it has dried up giving rise to Dubai's current predicament.

Gold (1152.70) and silver (18.38) are taking a hit now.