Log in

View Full Version : The Mythical Recovery


SmokyMtn
March 21st, 2011, 11:14 PM
March 21, 2011

The Mythical Recovery (http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2011/03/the-mythical-recovery.html)

I could have taken the easy way out and simply highlighted data from the latest Gallup poll, which reveals that "Americans' Worries About Economy, Budget Top Other Issues."

But instead, I figured I'd put a bit more effort into it and list the breathtaking array of recent articles that show just how mythical this so-called recovery really is.

"Poll: Nearly One-Third of Homeowners Underwater on Mortgages"
(The Hill)

Nearly one-third of American homeowners say they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth, according to a new poll.

Rasmussen Reports found that of 720 homeowners surveyed, 31 percent reported they were "underwater" on their mortgages. Another 53 percent said that their homes were now worth more than the amount they borrowed to buy it.

The survey serves as the latest indicator of the housing market's continued struggles.

"Consumers Vs. Businesses Square Off on Economy"
(CNBC.com)

The dismal home sales numbers released Monday morning are the latest to illustrate a developing disconnect between consumer sentiment and behavior, on the one hand, and between business plans, on the other.

Sales of previously owned homes dropped 9.6 percent in February, to a 4.88 million annual rate. That’s far slower than Bloomberg’s median forecast of economists estimate of 5.13. The median price dropped 5.2 percent from a year earlier, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.

This comes just a few days after we learned that February saw a year over year decline in housing starts of 20.8 percent, according to the Census Bureau. Building permits dropped 20.5 percent, year over year.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell in January—the most recent month for which we have data—surprising many economists who thought we’d see a bigger economic stimulus from the Obama administration’s payroll tax cut. As it turns out—and as we predicted—Americans are saving a much higher portion of the tax than expected.

Meanwhile, consumers are also losing confidence. The preliminary March reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for March came in at 68.2, well off Reuters’ median forecast of economists of 76.5.

"More Men Are Having Plastic Surgery to Save their Jobs"
(BNET)

The recession may have had an unexpected consequence for men, particularly those over 40. In 2010, more men may have gone under the knife for the sake of saving-or finding-a job. The number of men getting facelifts rose 14% from 2009 to 2010 while men using Botox increased 9% and male liposuction rose 7%, according to new statistics just released from the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS). The reason for the increases may have to do with the tighter job market, which has hit men disproportionately.

“I have guys telling me they’re getting passed over for job promotions that are going to younger guys,” said Phil Haeck, M.D., a cosmetic surgeon who practices in Seattle, the heart of the very youthful tech industry. “I have others who are unemployed and are desperate to get back to work and ask, is there anything you can do to make me look younger?” said Haeck, who is also the president of ASPS.

"Recovery Leaves Women Behind" (Baltimore Sun)

Recession hurt male-dominated sectors, but hiring is lagging for women

It became known as the "mancession" because the recent downturn battered industries dominated by men.

But the economic battle of the sexes has taken a turn. While the nation's nascent recovery has been slow and bumpy for just about everyone, it has been almost nonexistent for women.

Of the 1.3 million jobs gained in the U.S. in the past year, 1.1 million — nearly 90 percent — went to men, Department of Labor statistics show. Women gained just 149,000 jobs during that time. If you count jobs since the recovery officially started in July 2009, men gained more than 600,000 jobs while women lost 300,000, the figures show.

"The recovery is really not happening for women at all," said Joan Entmacher, vice president for family economic security at the National Women's Law Center in Washington. "It's a slow recovery overall, but it's really leaving women behind."

"Recession, Moms' Schedules Help Thaw Cold Shoulders to Frozen Meals"
(Dallas Morning News)

Ask a harried mom about what's for dinner, and you could get an icy reply.

Feeling increased pressure to get a full meal on the table in less than 30 minutes, more families are eyeing the frozen food aisles for items that can carry dinnertime.

About 16 percent of dinners tonight will come from the freezer aisle, an all-time high and up from 11 percent in 1990, according to the NPD Group.

Also, frozen food is taking up more of the store, according to grocery consulting firm Willard Bishop. The average length has about doubled since 1990, to about 400 feet today.

“We used to talk about the freezer aisle,” said Corey Henry, a spokesman for the American Frozen Food Institute. “But now it's freezer aisles.”

The trend toward frozen has only increased since the beginning of the recession, said Stacy DeBroff, chief executive of Mom Central, a Newton, Mass.-based social media agency specializing in marketing to mothers.

“Moms are busier than ever,” she said. “With the recession, a lot of moms who had been staying at home with their kids are working part time to make ends meet.”

In many cases, she said, these women are working to balance out income from a partner who lost a job or suffered a pay cut.

"Recession Boosts Private Labels"
(McClatchy Newspapers)

Retailers hope customers stick with store brands.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Even as the economy shows signs of recovering, local retailers are expanding their selection of store brands and working to persuade more customers to try — and stick with — their products.

Store brands have been around for decades, offering goods similar to nationally recognized brands such as Heinz and Tide at lower prices. But they’ve come to make up a larger portion of retailers’ sales as consumers traded down to save money — often up to 30 percent compared to national brands.

Retailers are ramping up private-label offerings, trying to cement the recent gains and sell customers more of their goods.

Food prices are expected to rise this year as a result of higher oil costs and poor harvests. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting production of staple crops wheat and corn won’t meet global demand.

Neil Stern, a senior partner and retail consultant at McMillan Doolittle in Chicago, said store brands usually become more popular during down times and have kept their appeal.

"Survey: Non-Profits Still Feeling Brunt of Economic Downturn" (USA Today)

Non-profit organizations are still feeling the brunt of the economic downturn according to a new survey by Nonprofit Finance Fund. Indeed out of the 1,900 non-profit leaders that were surveyed, 87% say that the "recession has not ended."

So what's responsible for this negative outlook? It's a combination of an on-going lack of resources while at the same time an increase in demand for services.

"Some of the adjustments we're seeing are creative and healthy - such as strategic collaborations to improve impact in a community," says Rebecca Thomas, vice president of consulting services at Nonprofit Finance Fund, in a news release. "Other effects - layoffs, people who need services being turned away, organizations operating at a deficit or with no cash, are further compromising the social safety net at a great cost to America."

"Struggling US Economy Results in More Immigrants Returning to Mexico" (Associated Press)

NOGALES, Ariz. — More Mexican citizens are loading up their cars and taking them to Mexico.

Auto legalization shops along the border say they've noticed an increase in people filing to permanently register their cars in Mexico.

One Nogales business owner says most of his customers come from places like Las Vegas and Phoenix where the lack of construction jobs has made it hard to find a job. Other business owners say customers just got tired of being harassed about their immigration status.

According to Mexican census data provided to the Nogales International, an estimated 351,000 people have returned to Mexico in the past five years. That's about a third of the 1.1 million who left the country in that time. A decade ago, about 17 percent of migrants who left Mexico returned.

"Roster of Delinquent Taxpayers Reflect an Economy Still Struggling" (Charlotte Observer)

For the second year in a row, Mecklenburg officials say the largest share of unpaid tax bills across the county belong to those owing less than $5,000, another sign that many residents are still struggling to recover from the recession.

Today, the county is listing more than 36,500 overdue bills for real estate and personal property taxes in a legal notice in Mecklenburg County editions of the Observer. The ad, required by state law, lists bills not paid by Feb. 28 to the county, city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg's six towns.

The debt listed in today's advertisement totals about $38.1million, down from more than $43 million last year.

County Tax Collector Neal Dixon said his staff talks to property owners who say that while they are employed, they are working fewer hours for less money.

"They've struggled through as long as they can, and they try to make ends meet," said John Connaughton, a professor of economics at UNC Charlotte. "And all of a sudden, they get a property tax bill for $2,000 or $3,000 .... and it's just difficult."

Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.

SmokyMtn
March 26th, 2011, 08:20 PM
March 26, 2011
Summing Things Up
Four recent reports more-or-less up where things stand with our so-called recovery:

Few businesses are adding staff --

"Mass. Job Fair Canceled Because of Lack of Jobs" (Associated Press)

TAUNTON -- A Massachusetts employment organization has canceled its annual job fair because not enough companies have come forward to offer jobs.

Richard Shafer, chairman of the Taunton Employment Task Force, says 20 to 25 employers are needed for the fair scheduled for April 6, but just 10 tables had been reserved. One table was reserved by a nonprofit that offers human services to job seekers, and three by temporary employment agencies.

Shafer tells the Taunton Daily Gazette the lack of employers means the task force won't have enough money to properly advertise the fair. --

The task force has been organizing the job fair nearly every year since 1984.

Shafer says the cancellation reflects the current economy -- even though things are getting better, companies are still cautious about hiring full-time workers. --

Those that are hiring are relying on temporary help --

"Temp Work Driving Growth" (The News-Messenger)

Short-term jobs let employers try out workers, test the economic waters

Many of the newest jobs these days come with an expiration date.

Facing economic uncertainty, many companies in this economy have turned to temporary staffing agencies to meet work demands without taking on costly health care benefits, state-mandated unemployment and worker's compensation payments.

Temporary help has been "the main driver of job growth" in the professional and business services industry during the past 18 months, according to a February report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. --

or are paying people less than before --

"Underemployed, Downsized and Living on the Edge" (The Fiscal Times)

Ed Muchnick knows his biggest paydays are behind him. The Mount Laurel, N.J., resident had been making more than $60,000 a year as manager of the children’s clothing shop founded by his parents in 1964. When the store closed in early 2007, Muchnick wanted to stay in retail management. He found a job as an assistant manager at a HomeGoods store in suburban Philadelphia in November 2007, with a salary of $48,000. That lasted two years.

Since then, the 57-year-old Muchnick has struggled to find a permanent job. He worked four months for the Census Bureau, at $17 an hour, and spent 10 weeks as a holiday-season hire at Target, earning $8 an hour. “It’s hell out there,” Muchnick says. He’s given up on landing a job that pays $50,000, let alone the $60,000 he was making five years ago. “It’s discouraging. The big companies are making money. I don’t think they’re hiring, and if they’re hiring, they’re hiring at the lower wages.”

Companies nationwide actually have started hiring again, but Muchnick is right that, at least so far, a disproportionate number of the jobs being created pay less than the positions that have been lost. Since March 2010, the economy has seen a net gain of 1.26 million jobs — a welcome rebound, but still far shy of the nearly 9 million jobs lost in the recession.

Yet economists say many of the new positions created are in lower paying occupations. Despite the overall job gains posted last year, companies continued to eliminate management positions, with about 550,000 being lost. “The problem is not just the quantity of new jobs being created, but the quality of those jobs as well,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Toronto-based Capital Economics, wrote in a recent report. He adds that underemployment creates a hidden drag on the economy by discouraging consumer spending. A Gallup poll last year found the underemployed spend 36 percent less than those who consider themselves fully employed. --

or are sending work out to those who will happily settle for less --

"More Businesses Are Outsourcing—to Rural and Small Town U.S.A." (Employment Trends)

Is your small business dealing with an increased workload and more demand from clients and customers? That’s a good thing. But with the economy still uncertain, many of us are leery about taking on full-time employees to help with the workload—even when we’re overwhelmed.

Well, there is a solution—and it’s closer to home than you might think. I first wrote about the trend of “ruralsourcing” on Small Business Trends in the summer of 2010, when several news outlets reported on the practice. Essentially, ruralsourcing means outsourcing jobs—but instead of outsourcing to India or China, the jobs are being outsourced to small and rural communities in the United States.

But profits are way up, so it's all good. Right?