Alex Linder
December 1st, 2003, 05:52 PM
Moneyball
(W.W. Norton & Co., New York, 2003)
Excellent book by Michael Lewis, whom you may recall as the author of
Liar's Poker. The book is about baseball, but the real subject is how to see with new eyes that which millions have seen and considered before but missed. The incentive to make money produces much progress, as does the need to work within a tight budget. In baseball, Lewis shows how these produced superior methods of evaluating players. Billy Beane came to realize that old-school scouts were biased toward good-looking ballplayers over effective ones. His Harvard number-cruncher Podesta discovered that on base percentage and slugging percentage were the most important stats in evaluating a hitter. These lead most directly to run production, which leads to wins. Podesta, surveying past results, also discovered that whereas most teams loved to draft highschool flamethrowers, in fact these rarely succeeded in making it to the majors. College graduates performed much better. With this information, Beane and Podesta drafted only college grads, and pursued first hitters with the highest on-base percentages. And it worked. The past few years Oakland has enjoyed the best of both worlds: a top-peforming team at the second-lowest salary in its division.
I take the message of this book as a direct shot at ur-conservative Burke's opinion that we must rely on prejudice rather than our own private stock of wisdom. If Beane and Podesta had relied on the stock of scouting wisdom, they would have drafted Greek Gods and whiz kids, and enjoyed the same results as the other 30 teams. Rather, by careful thought and study they proved a superior way to draft, and already their findings are being copied by others, including Theo Epstein at Boston. Thus, today's progress is tomorrow's prejudice. Only a minority ever produces new wisdom, and no man should ever be afraid to think for himself. He should only be afraid of not testing his thought against reality. Conservatism preserves progress -- and everything else. It is necessary but not sufficient. It represents an aspect of our nature, not the whole.
What exists can usually be done better, and if you are smart, you might be able to figure out how. As long as you test your ideas against reality, there's little harm in trying. If the first man never built a house that collapsed, or a plane that crashed ten seconds later, we'd still be living in grass houses and footing from here to there. The White West is the story of the Quest. Risk and ratiocination go hand in hand. The common stock of wisdom is nothing but the distilled discovery of gutsman and genius, and we can't allow Edmund Burke or any man to throw the gin out with the rotten potatoes.
What are we White scouts missing?
(W.W. Norton & Co., New York, 2003)
Excellent book by Michael Lewis, whom you may recall as the author of
Liar's Poker. The book is about baseball, but the real subject is how to see with new eyes that which millions have seen and considered before but missed. The incentive to make money produces much progress, as does the need to work within a tight budget. In baseball, Lewis shows how these produced superior methods of evaluating players. Billy Beane came to realize that old-school scouts were biased toward good-looking ballplayers over effective ones. His Harvard number-cruncher Podesta discovered that on base percentage and slugging percentage were the most important stats in evaluating a hitter. These lead most directly to run production, which leads to wins. Podesta, surveying past results, also discovered that whereas most teams loved to draft highschool flamethrowers, in fact these rarely succeeded in making it to the majors. College graduates performed much better. With this information, Beane and Podesta drafted only college grads, and pursued first hitters with the highest on-base percentages. And it worked. The past few years Oakland has enjoyed the best of both worlds: a top-peforming team at the second-lowest salary in its division.
I take the message of this book as a direct shot at ur-conservative Burke's opinion that we must rely on prejudice rather than our own private stock of wisdom. If Beane and Podesta had relied on the stock of scouting wisdom, they would have drafted Greek Gods and whiz kids, and enjoyed the same results as the other 30 teams. Rather, by careful thought and study they proved a superior way to draft, and already their findings are being copied by others, including Theo Epstein at Boston. Thus, today's progress is tomorrow's prejudice. Only a minority ever produces new wisdom, and no man should ever be afraid to think for himself. He should only be afraid of not testing his thought against reality. Conservatism preserves progress -- and everything else. It is necessary but not sufficient. It represents an aspect of our nature, not the whole.
What exists can usually be done better, and if you are smart, you might be able to figure out how. As long as you test your ideas against reality, there's little harm in trying. If the first man never built a house that collapsed, or a plane that crashed ten seconds later, we'd still be living in grass houses and footing from here to there. The White West is the story of the Quest. Risk and ratiocination go hand in hand. The common stock of wisdom is nothing but the distilled discovery of gutsman and genius, and we can't allow Edmund Burke or any man to throw the gin out with the rotten potatoes.
What are we White scouts missing?