Who the hell posted this on Feb. 28, 2007?

"...There is not going to be any precipitous economic plunge. There is not even going to be much deterioration, at least not in the next few years. The DOW and other indices are going to putz around, up-down, down-up, blah, blah...like always. Housing prices are not going to drop 50%, in fact in most markets, houses will sell for more in 2008 than they do today, or did last year. Gold and silver will slowly creep up, sometimes fast, sometimes slow, but people forget, in spite of occasional spurts, gold is cheaper today than it was in April, 2006 - silver too. Nor is the dollar going to tank much beyond what has already happened.

Most of the major adjustments to the economy in the US have already been made.

In 5 years, who knows? But don't count on any big bang or even slide in the next few years.

Sorry,

Enkidu"

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Damn! what a dumb...! Whoops! That was me.

Never mind.

Mike [Enkidu]

Did you really believe that or were you just frustrated that the bear was just not coming around fast enough? The goldilocks bullshit went on for a long time, even now we appear to be there again, the S&P is only %16 off from last year’s highs, the central bankers are pumping hard as usual and inflating a stock bubble, that´s the only explanation for the absurd rise stocks have made since March.

I wish I were a better note taker. The markets I most pay attention to are commodities and currencies. In Feb. 2007, commodities were at the end of a very long stable period with just a nice slow movement upward---very healthy looking. The DJIA, though I hardly look at the stock indices, was running around 12700, and in fact didn't head down in a serious way for more than a year.

Mostly though, I was hearing too much consensus that we were heading into a big economic crash. I thought it was hysteria. For about a year, I was almost correct. My longer prognostications were way off.

Mike

The goldilocks bullshit went on for a long time, even now we appear to be there again, the S&P is only %16 off from last year’s highs, the central bankers are pumping hard as usual and inflating a stock bubble, that´s the only explanation for the absurd rise stocks have made since March.

A quote I saw recently remarked (in effect) that the recent upsurge in the indices was "the most rapid recovery since 1930". It should remembered that following the great stock market crash of 1929 there were several very substantial "dead cat bounce" recoveries.

That history is one of the reasons I've missed out (for the most part) on the very nice recent runup. For me the long-term outlook is just too volatile to play with at this time. Even the Pollyannas today are anticipating "a significant re-visiting of the March lows."

Think about it: what the hell has gone on to support increased valuation of common stocks beyond wishful hoping that "it's all over now; things have to get better?" Earnings are up? Sure, but admittedly only because of severe cost cutting and layoffs, closings, etc. Sales continue miserable, and income is way, way down. The financial industry is on the mend? Ask anyone who's tried to get a loan lately. (Yeah, with 850++ credit I got snapped up for a new car loan. Interest? 6.9%! Some fucking deal, huh?) Housing is turning a corner? What a fucking joke! Sure, the bottom fishers are making their rounds, picking up foreclosed properties and stuff that's been on the market for 2 or 3 years with no takers. But just ask your local wetback drywall hanger how many dollars he's been Western Unioning back to ol' Mexico lately - Pasquale probably can't even afford beans and cheap beer these days...

In short, there's no recovery yet, and in spite of George Soros saying that the bottom has passed the upside really seems to be nowhere in sight at all.

I may actually get a little back into the stock market after the next "re-visiting" has spent itself. There will be another surge up and possibly quite a few more dead cat bounces yet to come. But I still see Soros as bullshitting the world right now. Why? Because the business model has broken and there is no replacement or repair in sight. Securitizing debt was the engine that drove the boom, with free money for every lowlife. But securitized debt cannot be the wave of the future - certainly not in the form it has taken.

As of today the entire Kwan edifice of commercial real estate - securitized to a fair-thee-well just like all the sub-prime junque before it - is on the edge of collapse. As malls and business centers become ghost towns like the subdivisions that were supposed to support them the true character of the economic based culture change will increasingly show its face.