At this point I really can't see how the USA is going to recover.
I'm not talking about power and influence so much either.
Problems:
US budget deficit.
-Total government debt is enormous and getting ever bigger. This can't keep going on. Interest payments are going to become a larger and larger share of the deficit at this rate.
Sooner or later something will happen if things don't change:
-people realize that the US government will go bankrupt
-or (more likely) foreign countries start switching away from the dollar and dollar denominated assets, dollar crashes.
Other point being if oil producing nations started switching to the euro, that would really be the end of it.

-US trade deficit, not helped by high oil prices and a weak dollar(and contributing to the weak dollar at the same time). Ownership of the American economy is bleeding away. Sovereign Wealth funds have been buying stakes in companies over the past year - at bargain prices due to the fucked stock market and a weak dollar.
Even if things do recover, a *lot* of wealth will have disappeared by the time that happens.

-Consumers are so loaded with debt and have so little confidence that the simple solution of cutting government spending to balance the budget may not be so simple. It should have been done years ago, but now doing it may end up causing a serious contraction - loss of jobs, ergo further reductions in demand.
The big worry would be that if the US economy declines too far, government revenues could collapse, large cuts in spending may well be too much now. They probably wouldn't have been too much a couple of years ago, but now?

If there's a major recession now/soon, which there may well be regardless of spending cuts, the loss of government revenues alone would make the deficit far, far worse.
Countries in a much better state are going to face this problem. Worse deficit brings its own *further* problems depending on how it's financed (overseas, domestic, ect).

This really is the big one, how can the US government actually rectify the budget? even if every direct problem re the balance sheets of financial institutions is solved, there's no room to move in any direction.
Low interest rates can't help if people are already loaded to breaking point with debt, at least as far as restoring demand which had been debt fueled to begin with. Plus there's the whole "if oil switches to the Euro we're fucked" thing. Damaging the dollar further through printing more of them might be a bad idea.

Raise taxes on the wealthy? yeah maybe a bit, but go too far and it'll begin to break the supply side by killing off what remains of private investment. Wall Street ain't looking so good now as it is.

It isn't such a bad idea as far as raising taxes a bit on the big end and lowering them for lower income earners in order to boost the economy, but a revenue neutral plan doesn't directly help the budget, even if it does stimulate demand.

Maintaining the current level of tax cuts isn't going to do jack either - any idiot can tell that.
McCain is wrong.
But under Obama the democratic congress is going to be able to run amok... and there isn't any room for pet projects (or any increased expenditure whatsoever).
How on earth can things work out?

Maybe it can't get out of it. The US has been going down since September 11 and it could be time for it to simply decline.

Well boys, we had a good run.

Well boys, we had a good run.

I'm just glad I got to grow up when my country was a superpower.

^
It will be all the more consolation when your country goes through its inevitable depression/war.

^
It will be all the more consolation when your country goes through its inevitable depression/war.

And brings the rest of the world down with it.

America, fuck yeah.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaxdUPNYj2s

Oh yeah, in b4 social security, medicare, medicaid obligations.

There's 'fucked in 20-30 years' and fucked in the next 5 or so.
I'm saying it could easily be the latter

I mean seriously, governments which are running surpluses of 1% or 2% of GDP are somewhat concerned about what's going to happen to revenues over the next year.

What's going to happen if/when tax revenue declines? If the decline is big enough, or is worsened by bad policy it could get quite messy.

Stand up to the IRS, the Federal Reserve, the UN, NATO, NAFTA, NAU, IMF etc...

Get informed, help get other people informed and elect people who will actually truly represent us.
Even if we do those things we probably will still get totally screwed, but at least if we are successful once we recover we will have something to work with.

There's 'fucked in 20-30 years' and fucked in the next 5 or so

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5255/is_16/ai_n30893678/pg_3

I'm rubbing a hard one out on this.

Arsenic, gallium, and germanium are extremely important semiconductor materials. Hafnium is also important in the electronics industry. Also, take a hard look at the uranium reserves. We can't possibly fuel the world on nuclear power from uranium. Sorry, McCain't, it isn't happening.

http://scitizen.com/stories/Future-Energies/2008/09/METALS-SHORTAGES-/
:)

If nanomaterials can't take the place of semiconductors as we know them today, I hope we see a resurgence of vacuum tube technology. This time we will have miniturization technology on our side to make the tubes much smaller than previously possible, and the most important elements used are barium and thorium.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5255/is_16/ai_n30893678/pg_3

I'm rubbing a hard one out on this.

Arsenic, gallium, and germanium are extremely important semiconductor materials. Hafnium is also important in the electronics industry. Also, take a hard look at the uranium reserves. We can't possibly fuel the world on nuclear power from uranium. Sorry, McCain't, it isn't happening.

Though there's probably more that just the known remaining reserves if it's looked for, but holy shit.
29 years for silver. HAHA, oh man. That's going to be a problem.

Though there's probably more that just the known remaining reserves if it's looked for, but holy shit.
29 years for silver. HAHA, oh man. That's going to be a problem.

There probably are, however if we haven't found them by now they are probably small fields and it will be much more expensive to extract them relative to what we now are accustomed to. Even finding them is a difficult problem.

There probably are, however if we haven't found them by now they are probably small fields and it will be much more expensive to extract them relative to what we now are accustomed to. Even finding them is a difficult problem.

Absolutely - if prices are high enough it'll be possible, but that's hardly the point as far maintaining the current system is concerned.

Honestly, I don't think things are going to last much longer.
There's major problems on so many fronts, whether it's the US economy or oil supplies. This simply can't last.

Honestly, I don't think things are going to last much longer.
There's major problems on so many fronts, whether it's the US economy or oil supplies. This simply can't last.

Which is my point. Even if America comes back on top, it's only a few more years before your basic electronics are out of your reach. Then people start getting whiney and stabby. Resource grabbing will become more likely. It's already happening in the Congo.

It's already happening in the Congo.

Not really the best test case...

Though oil is a much bigger problem then no new electronics.

edit: oh did you mean resource grabbing? I thought you meant stabby... and yeah... africa + stabby = so what?

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5255/is_16/ai_n30893678/pg_3

I'm rubbing a hard one out on this.

Arsenic, gallium, and germanium are extremely important semiconductor materials. Hafnium is also important in the electronics industry. Also, take a hard look at the uranium reserves. We can't possibly fuel the world on nuclear power from uranium. Sorry, McCain't, it isn't happening.Dismissing nuclear power from uranium is misleading (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor). Most of the other things are a matter of why-the-fuck-are-we-not-recycling-things-properly.

Pimp out Palin & the Bush Twins. With a good work ethic: they could pull in the Mega Bucks.

People have generally run out of their blind faith in America. The Smiling Suits & their bland boosterism, avoiding the speaking hard cold truths & relying on bright, smiley sales-talk. It only goes so far. Then the train hits the wall doing 90.

They can still speak platitudes & smile for all they're worth. While the survivors stand bleeding in the wreckage. Some will pick themselves up & carry on. Sure that the Big Smiling Suits will have the train running again in no time. Others will look around at the wreckage & they will wonder. They will really wonder.

Actually, I've changed my mind on one aspect.

I hate it but... uh.

IF it's possible to hold ongoing government spending steady, or at least avoid cutting anything that could result in job losses. (Foreign aid might be a decent place to start.
As would be wars (but NOT the size of the military).) there might be a worthwhile course of action to take.
Whether that's possible or not remains to be seen.

Fuck investment, fuck the supply side.
Tax the rich and cut taxes on lower and middle income earners. Do it in such a way that it's revenue positive and bring the budget into surplus that way.

I'm not sure if that's possible by the numbers though, but it makes some sense.
So basically, Obama's tax plan but do it hardcore.
Make it clear it's all about the budget/economy, hopefully it wont provoke *too* much in the way of capital flight (spreading the wealth ain't a great sentiment).

"Not the size of the military"? Like your shiny toy guns eh?

A lot of that military money would better be spent on America's crumbling infrastructure. I can imagine that before long all those price increases on the price of concrete & steel will start to fade. Thus making the billions needed to fix the thousands of bridges, roads & buildings go a lot farther.

Even replacing a lot of the military's decrepit equipment, rather than just buying often half-assed hi-tech fancy space-age stuff. Spend all those needed dollars on replacing the National Guard's stuff too. A lot of pork barrel projects that the military doesn't want could be canceled to pay for it too. I always love when some cock-smoking senator insists on spending $40 billion on something the military doesn't even want. Eg: The "Osprey".

That's like me insisting you spend $20,000 of your own money on clothes that you won't wear. Causing you to go without car repairs & a dozen other things.

Oh what the heck. The more the US fucks up? The more interesting news stories. So: carry on with your mad dance Uncle Sam. It's fascinating! :D

"If the United States had never wasted the better part of a trillion dollars fighting a war in Vietnam and, following defeat there, embarked on a scheme to saddle the Soviets with a similarly ignominious loss – which has now led to wars with a multi-trillion dollar price tag – the United States might not be in such dire financial straits today. And yet, despite the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, the U.S. continues to sink money into costly wars fought from expensive bases overseas with no end in sight. The result is sheer waste in every sense of the word.

When Americans want to get serious about a long-term bailout strategy that brings genuine financial and national security, they'll look to real cost-cutting options like stopping America's string of costly wars and getting rid of the Pentagon's vast network of overseas bases. Until then, they are simply helping Ronald Reagan's freedom fighter, Osama bin Laden, be a better Reagan than Reagan ever was. "

http://www.antiwar.com/engelhardt/?articleid=13679

"Not the size of the military"? Like your shiny toy guns eh?


No, but soldiers getting paid and spending money are getting paid and spending money.

Get the government to stop regarding the corporation as a legal person, elect Ron Paul.

No, but soldiers getting paid and spending money are getting paid and spending money.

So you look at the military as mainly a make-work project? It's kind of poor value for the money that way isn't it? There are potentially 100's of 1000's of infrastructure repair jobs at higher wages.

Though I do admit that I love "death by bridge collapse" stories as much as anyone.

So you look at the military as mainly a make-work project? It's kind of poor value for the money that way isn't it? There are potentially 100's of 1000's of infrastructure repair jobs at higher wages.

Though I do admit that I love "death by bridge collapse" stories as much as anyone.

In this case, right now, yeah pretty much.
I can't believe I'm advocating this sort of bullshit, but it honestly seems to be the policy that makes the most sense.

There are barely any construction jobs now for people qualified in that area, let alone anyone else.
I don't think that infrastructure projects are a good idea either. The government needs to reduce spending as a goal, it's just that cutting too much spending all at once is a fucking bad idea right now.

In this case, right now, yeah pretty much.
I can't believe I'm advocating this sort of bullshit, but it honestly seems to be the policy that makes the most sense.

There are barely any construction jobs now for people qualified in that area, let alone anyone else.
I don't think that infrastructure projects are a good idea either. The government needs to reduce spending as a goal, it's just that cutting too much spending all at once is a fucking bad idea right now.

Then you're quite happy that Obama leans towards socialism? Couldn't he create other make-work projects than being a soldier? Is it that you just fancy men in uniform?

Dismissing nuclear power from uranium is misleading (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor). Most of the other things are a matter of why-the-fuck-are-we-not-recycling-things-properly.

If you actually understood nuclear physics (or even basic thermodynamics) you would know that if a large amount of the energy is going into creating new fuel it isn't going into the heat exchanger. Thus, you don't get as much energy out of it. To wit, other nuclear reactors, even in the 70's, were able to surpass 100GW and I can't find any breeder reactors that can output more than a single GW. The cost/power ratio is exponentially more expensive with breeder type reactors tan with conventional refined-fuel reactors.

Not really the best test case...

So you don't think it can happen at all? People steal from other people all over the world all of the time. Do you honestly think that countries starving for resources are not going to reach out and take from other countries if they cannot get them cheaply any other way?

Then you're quite happy that Obama leans towards socialism? Couldn't he create other make-work projects than being a soldier? Is it that you just fancy men in uniform?

The point isn't to create new 'make work' projects, spending is too high as it is. My worry is that deep cuts in spending given the current situation are a really bad idea as they'll kill off consumption demand and send the economy into a tailspin.
I have a feeling you're trolling, but whatever.
The military isn't special but spending seems to be sorta sticky downwards so I'd adding new things to the budget at the same as trying to raise revenues probably isn't a good idea as far as getting out of debt is concerned.

Obama is a trot and it's horrific that he's probably going to be president.
McCain is still keeping up this 'tax cuts for the rich' crap which is entirely pointless as far as consumption demand is concerned.

So you don't think it can happen at all? People steal from other people all over the world all of the time. Do you honestly think that countries starving for resources are not going to reach out and take from other countries if they cannot get them cheaply any other way?

No I don't think that.
I just think crazy shit happens in Africa and the middle east all the time and that the big 'sign of the end times' is when it happens in SE Asia or South America(probably on behalf of China, Russia, USA, ect)

Hi. Just want to say first that I don't know much about how economy works. But still I would like to inject my two cents.

Assuming that oil supply is not drying up (of course this is a pretty big assumption however I just want to hold this variable a constant right now), I don't see what the big problem with the US economy is. Debts going up, deficits getting bigger...so what? As long as the US is producing enough food and goods to service her population, there should be no worries, right? After all, international trade is not mandatory for a nation's prosperity (again, ignoring oil), right? I know right now the US relies on China for a lot of manufactured goods, however it's not like the US actually lacks the manufacturing base for these things. If need be, they can always go into those idle factories and start turning on the machines.

If you actually understood nuclear physics (or even basic thermodynamics) you would know that if a large amount of the energy is going into creating new fuel it isn't going into the heat exchanger. Thus, you don't get as much energy out of it. To wit, other nuclear reactors, even in the 70's, were able to surpass 100GW and I can't find any breeder reactors that can output more than a single GW. The cost/power ratio is exponentially more expensive with breeder type reactors tan with conventional refined-fuel reactors.The point I was trying to make was not to dismiss nuclear energy based solely on uranium-based tech, ie theres thorium, but nonetheless...

I seem to be having a bit of trouble finding info about whether 1GW is a current practical limit or whether its because breeder reactors are only used for research at the moment.

Hi. Just want to say first that I don't know much about how economy works. But still I would like to inject my two cents.

Assuming that oil supply is not drying up (of course this is a pretty big assumption however I just want to hold this variable a constant right now), I don't see what the big problem with the US economy is. Debts going up, deficits getting bigger...so what? As long as the US is producing enough food and goods to service her population, there should be no worries, right? After all, international trade is not mandatory for a nation's prosperity (again, ignoring oil), right? I know right now the US relies on China for a lot of manufactured goods, however it's not like the US actually lacks the manufacturing base for these things. If need be, they can always go into those idle factories and start turning on the machines.

Well, personally what might happen to Chinese and Japanese central banks (who hold $1 trillion in US government debt between them) bothers me a little as an Aussie.

Anyway, the US isn't producing enough goods/services. It's existence for a long long time has been parasitic.
While of course if people don't have money to spend they buy less, that kills off production in the US too and the whole system could come crashing down now.
If no one wants to take paper money for oil anymore, the US has a problem. You can't ignore oil.

To be honest the move away from the US dollar as the worlds reserve currency is a very good thing, but not like this.

The problem with consumer debt is that it's piled so high that people are cutting back on spending, which is going to kill off business. To some extent that sort of thing is cyclical but in this case the fed's expansionary monetary policy over the passed few years cause it to happen to a ridiculous degree - case in point the housing bubble.
If consumers have barely any money to spend, that's bad, people out of work, ect but the what I'm worried about is the budget deficit and what that'll do to it.

The US government can't keep borrowing money and devaluing the currency endlessly, sooner or later people will decided that they can't repay it and that the dollar is worthless.
If they're suffering a serious recession and running insane deficits that may just be sooner.

This shouldn't have been able to go so far, no other country could have got away with this for so long, shit trade balances should devalue the currency so as to begin to bring it back into line (making imports more expensive, exports more profitable), so should printing money and financing obscene deficits. But the US dollar's unique status has meant that things have gone so far that IF it does all catch up at once it's going to be a nightmare.

No I don't think that.
I just think crazy shit happens in Africa and the middle east all the time and that the big 'sign of the end times' is when it happens in SE Asia or South America(probably on behalf of China, Russia, USA, ect)

I'm just saying it's already happening. The "sign of the end times", as it were, was when I posted how much longer we have until we exhaust our elemental reserves.

I'm just saying it's already happening. The "sign of the end times", as it were, was when I posted how much longer we have until we exhaust our elemental reserves.

I highly recommend you watch this if you ever have 2 hours to blow:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course

Also:

IEA says world’s oilfields declining faster than expected


Tuesday, October 28, 2008, 10:13 pm, by cmartenson
I know that the whole issue of peak oil seems to be on the back burner given the financial crisis. Many think that oil demand will be knocked far enough back that even if Peak Oil were happening right now we'd have several years respite before it because a significant problem due to demand destruction.

So I've been patiently waiting for any estimates that would allow us to compare world oil production declines to demand destruction to see where we are in the oil sweepstakes race.

On the demand side, I've seen estimates that world oil demand will fall off as much as 4%-5% this next year.

Now for the supply side.

Today the Financial Times got their hands on a draft of this year's IEA annual report, the World Energy Outlook. I certainly hope there's a misprint in the early version because this authoritative field-by-field assessment of the rate of decline from existing fields is stunning.

They are projecting a 9.1% rate of production decline (collapse?) for all existing fields.

World will struggle to meet oil demand
Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de*mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

This rate of decline is anywhere from two to three times larger than most other assumed rates of oil field declines. It is also much higher than any estimates of demand shrinkage I've yet seen.

A complicating factor here is that a lot of the new oil finds that we were counting on to cover this gap are hideously expensive. Think of the Jack II find in the Gulf of Mexico recently trumpeted as a major find but which had to break four drilling records to get to. It was still being evaluated for its economic viability back when oil was over $120/barrel.

Or the find in Brazil which had to break six drilling records to reach. Also a very expensive proposition to consider. The trend in oil production costs has been sharply up over the past few years both because of rampant inflation for labor and materials and because the finds themselves are deeper, more remote, and smaller.

Any slowdown in the investment for new field exploration and development will almost certainly translate into massive shortages once the credit crisis is over and countries attempt to return to their respective paths of growth.

This is worth keeping on our radar screens as time goes on....

I'm just saying it's already happening. The "sign of the end times", as it were, was when I posted how much longer we have until we exhaust our elemental reserves.

Yes that's true.

The only reason that the USD isn't worthless right now is because there's no real alternative currency for investors to run to.

I think that the two most important issues right now are the economy(duh) and foreign policy. The US needs to open relationships with other countries. Isolating certain countries may have worked twenty years ago when the US was the only true world power, but now China, Russia, and Japan in some ways are breaking into the scene. If we cut off trade with countries, then it's not hurting them; they can still trade with China or Russia. However, we lose any revenue we may have made from trading with countries like North Korea and Iran. The US is on the way to losing it's dominant world standing, and we need to change our policies very soon, if not to keep our superpower standing, then to avoid being enemies of every other country when we're on our way down.

The only reason that the USD isn't worthless right now is because there's no real alternative currency for investors to run to.


Correction: the lack of an alternative is part of the reason it wasn't being heavily devalued years ago

Now we have the Euro.

Correction: the lack of an alternative is part of the reason it wasn't being heavily devalued years ago

Now we have the Euro.

The dollar has been kicking alot of ass as of late... :o

The dollar has been kicking alot of ass as of late... :o

Currency exchange rates are volatile as hell and unpredictable in the short term.
Right now it's all over the place - its buying 10 more euro cents then a month ago yeah.

It's nearly 80 now, but between what... april and july it was it was in the low 60s

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

Stock markets, futures markets, fx markets make no sense whatsoever at the moment.
Particularly the stock markets - even in countries where the fundamentals are still OK stocks are in freefall because investors and institutions getting out of their positions have sent them into freefall.
Why buy stocks when you know they'll cost less tomorrow? even if they are a bargain today.

Well boys, we had a good run.

as long as we deploy all of our nukes when we go down. we will be just fine. that way we go out of this world a big winner! the rest of the human race failed. lolz

How on earth can the US get out of the mess it's in?

Take over canada and mexico.

More land and resources.


Then ship the beaners to some middle east country.


I would gladly approve of such an invasion.