View Full Version : When....?
Dream of the iris
2008-11-26, 02:24
So here's my prediction on what's coming:
Iran and Israel will go to war, probably no later then the end of next summer in which Russia will indirectly back Iran up. By the time summer hits our economy is going to be twice as bad as it is now but will probably still hold. Because of this we will not be physically capable of entering another war in the middle east so if we get involved it's probably going to be indirect with very small amounts of military financing. Given that the U.S and probably NATO are the only entities that have Israel's back and given that it is surrounded by countries that want it out including half of its own people, Israel will lose to Iran. Iran will have a successful nuclear weapon and depending on how war torn they are as well as the global economic situation will depend on whether or not Iran will fail as a state. Iran may be doing alright now but consider the other countries surrounding it that are already in a state of failure. It's a known fact that failed states tend to spread like a bad apple in a batch so there is a real possibility that Iran could be in a state of failure in the not too distant future. Anyway thats just a small snippit of what I think is going to happen....what do you guys think?
Dichromate
2008-11-26, 02:46
How can Israel 'lose' a war with Iran?
They don't share a border.
Iran is NOT going to be attempting to invade Israel by sea.
Israel may do things that will make the Iranians very upset, and there may well be conventional rockets flying everywhere.
My scenario:
Israel fucks up Iranian nuclear sites, through bombs, Mossad on the ground, whatever.
Iran gets pissed off, fires missiles at Israel. They may even use chemical weapons if they have any.
It doesn't matter much, for years and years all new houses in Israel have been required to have bomb shelters and there are fuckloads of shelters around the place too.
The only real threat to Israel is a nuclear weapon, and Israel WILL act before that's possible.
Trigger happy jews are trigger happy.
Iran may well screw with the strait of hormuz which is the only real part of this that's important as far as the US is concerned. As long as the US navy prevents disruption of oil supplies the whole conflict will just blow over.
Even the shit hits the fan there, it'll fuck with the world economy sure, but there's still no need for a conventional invasion of Iran. Quality of life in Iran would suffer so much that the regime would be toast.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia do NOT want a Nuclear Iran, the Saudis like being the top shit in the middle east and while they'll be "outraged" by Israel bombing Iran they're not going to do jack and will quietly be relieved that the status quo hasn't been messed with.
As long as the Israeli's are as paranoid as we all think they are and act before Iran can develop usable nuclear weapons it isn't much to worry about.
Dichromate
2008-11-26, 03:00
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_legislative_election,_2009
Also:
There's a clear Right-Wing/Religious Coalition there in the recent polls.
Most of Kadima's center right support appears to be gone and they've simply pulled voters off the Labor party.
In all likelihood Israel is going to have a right wing government as of early next year and they will act on Iran sooner rather then later.
ArgonPlasma2000
2008-11-26, 04:45
How can Israel 'lose' a war with Iran?
Israel's air force is much better equipped than any other Middle Eastern nation. Iran obviously cannot strike from the air or land and could not possibly assault from water since we can spare those resources to defend Israel and they couldn't transport enough of a strike force to make a difference.
The one thing Iran has is terrorism, but I don't think they could do much with that since Israel will be paranoid as fuck about anything that comes in (its about a police state there, the way their national security is ran). They could fund some terrorists like Hamas and give them lots of rockets, but its not like that's going to make that big a difference.
Then again, they may already be very close to having a football. Of course, they will only have one or two of them, and they might not even work (since they haven't done nuke testing we know they know next to nothing about tactical nukes unless someone has given them some plans). They won't risk handing it off to an insurgent unless they are in some deeeeeeeep shit. Of course their ballistic missile technology is getting better and could hit Israel, or get very close. A big bomb is alot easier to make than a tactical one, so they may aim in that direction, but they need the missile capability.
I think it is extremely unlikely that Iran would pose much of a retalitory strike threat to Israel.
Lewcifer
2008-11-26, 13:11
Even if the US is forced into a more non-interventionist foreign policy by events at home, Iran would be severely out gunned by Israel. I can honestly see no reasonable scenario where Iran would attack Israel in retaliation for their atrocities in Palestine. The only conceivable (and I use the term loosely) situation where a war would arise is if Israel decides to perform a "preemptive" strike against Iran, citing their development of nuclear weapons and an 'intent' to use them against Israel as a justification, but without full backing from the US and Europe they are not going to do this.
However neither nation will get full backing from their allies because neither side will want to risk an all out world war. Israel will not get backing from the US and Europe for a preemptive strike, and Iran will almost certainly find out just how strong their allegiances are when the time comes for more than just talking tough.
Dichromate
2008-11-26, 23:50
lol Argonplasma2000
I'll bet the Israeli's are really worried about the possibility that Iran might begin to financially and logistically support terrorism.
:p